Internal Migration Across Italian Regions: Macroeconomic Determinants and Accommodating Potential for a Dualistic Economy*

Abstract

SummaryWe provide econometric evidence that relative per capita GDP and relative unemployment rates are the main determinants of migration flows across Italian regions from 1970 to 2002. The empirical analysis is based on an accurate study of the dynamic properties of the series. In fact, we deal with the issues of non-stationarity and cointegration and estimate an error correction model in which both the short-and long-run dynamics are modelled at once. The regional unemployment rate is robustly inversely related with net regional migration rate, while per capita GDP is strongly positively linked with it. As far as the accommodating potential of internal migration to regional unbalances, we have detected very little room for such a role. Indeed, the degree of labour mobility across Italian regions cannot be active as an effective equilibrating mechanism. Abstract. We provide econometric evidence that relative per capita GDP and relative unemployment rates are the main determinants of migration flows across Italian regions from 1970 to 2002. The empirical analysis is based on an accurate study of the dynamic properties of the series. In fact, we deal with the issues of non-stationarity and cointegration and estimate an error correction model in which both the short-and long-run dynamics are modelled at once. The regional unemployment rate is robustly inversely related with net regional migration rate, while per capita GDP is strongly positively linked with it. As far as the accommodating potential of internal migration to regional unbalances, we have detected very little room for such a role. Indeed, the degree of labour mobility across Italian regions cannot be active as an effective equilibrating mechanism. KeywordsJEL Codes: C23, J61, R23.

The North–South Divergence in Italy during theGreat Recession

“…Negative consequences can be connected with this deficiency. The scarce economic influence of education, particularly in the ‘poor’ South, can induce educated workers to move to the North (Biagi et al, ) because of the different levels of GDP per capita and unemployment that are among the main causes of migration (Piras, ). Demographic factors and organizational inefficiencies do not favor the efficient allocation of labor among the southern regions (Faini et al, ).…”

Wage assimilation of immigrants and internal migrants: the role of linguistic distance

“…Large flows took place in the 1960s from the South and the North-East towards the North-West; they declined at the end of the 1970s, and then acquired new strength in the second half of the 1990s, especially from the South towards the North-East (Appendix Figure A2). Differentials in per capita GDP and in unemployment rates were the main driving factors in South-to-North mobility (Fachin, 2007;Piras, 2012). Meanwhile, high mobility costs, mismatches in the labour market and the North-South housing price differential dampened down mobility (Attanasio & Padoa-Schioppa, 1991;Cannari, Nucci, & Sestito, 2000;Faini, Galli, Gennari, & Rossi, 1997).…”

Internal Migration in Spain: Dealing with Multilateral Resistance and Nonlinearites

“…Individuals seeking to migrate maximize their utility by taking into account a set of economic and non-economic factors in potential alternative destinations. In any case, as pointed out by Biagi et al (2011), there seems to be a consensus in the literature devoted to the European case that, when it comes to internal migration, economic motivations are dominant while amenities tend to play a minor role (see, for instance, Etzo, 2011;Piras, 2012;D etang-Dessendre et al, 2016). In the United States, on the other hand, empirical evidence conveys the message that internal migration is more amenity-driven (see, for example, Deller et al, 2001;Partridge and Rickman, 2003;Rappaport, 2007;Partridge, 2010).…”