Interest Rates, Fisher Effect and Economic Development in Turkey, 1989-2011

The Fisher hypothesis suggests a one-to-one link between nominal interest rate and expected inflation. The indication is that interest rate is independent of expected inflation. This paper empirically examines the Fisher effect in Rwanda using data from 2012m5 to 2020m2. We employ the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique for data analysis. We find evidence of partial Fisher effect in Rwanda during the period. This indicates that changes in expected inflation are not fully absorbed in the nominal interest rate which suggests that bank deposits decline over time. Also, the findings suggest that monetary policy may not be efficient in such a circumstance and household’s savings rate may suffer a decrease. Besides, the short-run results show no Fisher effect between nominal interest rate and expected inflation. This calls for great attention while fixing interest rate as a tool for monetary policy.

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Does the Fisher effect hold in Rwanda?

Ruzima

Boachie

Põlajeva

et al. 2022

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Is There a Chicken-and-Egg Relationship Between Interest and Inflation Rates for the Turkish Case?

Sarıalioğlu Hayali,

Lodın,

Aımar

et al. 2024

Uluslararası İktisadi Ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi

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There is still a hot debate about the causal relationship between interest and inflation rates. On the one hand, through Fisher Effect, it is expected that inflation is the cause while the interest rate is the result. On the other hand, among policymakers in Türkiye, it is expected opposite as inflation is the result and interest rate is the cause since it is argued that inflation is the result mostly stemming from the high-interest rates constituting the high cost of the credits. However, it is strongly argued that low interest rates—which the government has lowered below inflation—rather than high interest rates are the real cause in the Turkish case. In this regard, the key purpose of the paper is to investigate the causal relationship between the interest and inflation rates for the Turkish case for the period of 2004M01-2022M03. The findings reveal that there is a bi-directional Granger causality relationship between the interest rate and the inflation rate for the Turkish case for the relevant period. This result promotes the chicken-and-egg relationship between interest and inflation rates.

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Türkiye’de Fisher Hipotezinin Fourier Fonksiyonlarla Analizi

Koç

2020

Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi

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1985-2017 dönemini kapsayan bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye'de Fisher hipotezinin geçerliliğini analiz etmektir. Zaman serilerinde yapısal kırılmaların varlığı analiz sonuçlarını önemli ölçüde etkilemektedir. Bununla birlikte yapısal kırılmaların sayısı ve şekli de önemlidir. Bu nedenle bu çalışmada Türkiye'de Fisher hipotezinin geçerliliği Fourier eşbütünleşme testi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada faiz oranı ile enflasyon oranı arasında pozitif bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin var olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Enflasyon oranındaki %1'lik artış, faiz oranını %0.38 artırmaktadır. Bu bağlamda Türkiye'de Fisher hipotezi geçerlidir, ancak faiz oranlarındaki artış, Fisher hipotezinin öngördüğünden daha azdır.

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Interest Rates, Fisher Effect and Economic Development in Turkey, 1989-2011

Cited by 4 publications

References 10 publications

Does the Fisher effect hold in Rwanda?

Does the Fisher effect hold in Rwanda?

Is There a Chicken-and-Egg Relationship Between Interest and Inflation Rates for the Turkish Case?

Türkiye’de Fisher Hipotezinin Fourier Fonksiyonlarla Analizi

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