Reproduction permitted only if source is stated.ISBN 978-3-95729-118-9 (Printversion)
Non-technical summary Research QuestionWhile traditional bank capital requirements focus on portfolio risk, regulators have responded to the financial crisis by introducing a capital surcharge for systemically important banks. The surcharge relies on rather simple indicators feeding into a bucket system, which has the advantage of robustness and feasibility. In contrast, researchers have proposed more sophisticated surcharge concepts, which are often difficult to estimate. Network theory may offer an intermediate approach: network centrality measures can be computed with high precision, but have the potential to capture deep-lying aspects of a bank's role in the financial system. Whether they actually do so is largely unproven.
ContributionWe investigate the potential of network centrality measures in regulation by mixing classical risk-based economic capital with an allocation based on centrality measures. The former is calculated from the actual lending of all German banks to the real economy, the latter from interbank lending. Employing a risk model that includes correlated portfolio losses and contagion among banks, we test whether centrality-based capital can make the system safer. While earlier work evaluated sophisticated systemic risk charges for small systems, we test a tractable approach for a system of 1,764 banks in a fully-fledged risk model.
ResultsKeeping total capital in the banking system constant, up to 15% of expected systemic losses can be saved by redistributing capital according to eigenvector centrality, which is similar to recursive concepts developed for ranking websites. This proves the fundamental applicability of centrality measures to capital regulation. Further research is needed to find out how banks would react to the introduction of such rules.
Nicht-technische Zusammenfassung
AbstractWe look at the effect of capital rules on a banking system that is connected through correlated credit exposures and interbank lending. The rules, which combine individual bank characteristics and interconnectivity measures of interbank lending, are to minimize a measure of system-wide losses. Using the detailed German Credit Register for estimation, we find capital rules based on eigenvectors to dominate any other centrality measure, followed by closeness. Compared to the baseline case, capital reallocation based on the Adjacency Eigenvector saves 14.6% in system losses as measured by expected bankruptcy costs.