Interannual variations of spring drought-prone conditions over three subregions of East Asia and associated large-scale circulations

Park, Chang-Kyun; Ho, Chin Siong; Park, Doo‐Sun R.; Park, Tae-Won; Kim, Jinwon

doi:10.1007/s00704-020-03371-5

Cited by 11 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…(2018), and Park et al. (2020) presented that the spring droughts in mid East Asia are mainly affected by the negative phase of NPO. Further, the modulated NPO from the Arctic Oscillation can also significantly influence the drought condition in East Asia (S. Chen et al., 2013; Park et al., 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, when the NPO in May is in the positive phase, the East Asian regions including northern China, Korea, and southwestern Japan are prone to droughts during the summer time (Choi et al, 2011). Z. , L. , and Park et al (2020) presented that the spring droughts in mid East Asia are mainly affected by the negative phase of NPO. Further, the modulated NPO from the Arctic Oscillation can also significantly influence the drought condition in East Asia (S. Chen et al, 2013;Park et al, 2022).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Enhanced Linkage of Summer Drought in Southern China to the North Pacific Oscillation Since 2000

Zhou

Han

et al. 2023

JGR Atmospheres

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Southern China, an economically developed region with a large population, has suffered from frequent occurrence of droughts in recent decades, which caused serious challenges to agriculture production, forest-fire prevention, and human lives (W. Li et al., 2022;C. Sun & Yang, 2012;Q. Zhang et al., 2019). It is thus of great value to improve our understanding on the variability and underlying physical mechanisms of droughts in southern China for the aim of disaster prevention and mitigation.A number of studies have been devoted to the variability of wet/dry conditions over southern China and associated physical mechanisms at different time scales (e.g.,

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

Enhanced Linkage of Summer Drought in Southern China to the North Pacific Oscillation Since 2000

Zhou

Han

et al. 2023

JGR Atmospheres

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“…NPO variability has substantial influences on weather/climate conditions over North America, Australia, and the tropical Pacific (e.g., Chen & Wu, 2018; Linkin & Nigam, 2008; Park et al., 2020; Song et al., 2021; Sung et al., 2019; Vimont et al., 2001). Previous related studies have documented a close relation between the NPO and the East Asian climate (Guo & Sun, 2004; Li & Li, 2000; Wang et al., 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interdecadal Changes in the Linkage Between North Pacific Oscillation During May and Northeast China Precipitation During Mid‐Summer: The Influence of North Atlantic Oscillation

Han,

He,

Zhou

et al. 2023

Earth's Future

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Many previous studies have documented the relationship between the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the weather/climate of upstream and downstream regions. However, the stability of NPO precursor signals of East Asian summer precipitation, which is important for climate prediction, has received little attention. This study identified temporal variations in the connection between the May NPO and subsequent midsummer precipitation over Northeast China (NEC) during 1961–2020. During 1986–2010, the correlation between the May NPO and midsummer precipitation over NEC was found significantly positive, whereas the relation was found statistically insignificant during 1961–1985/2011–2020. Further results indicated that the NPO stimulated a Rossby wave source over the North Pacific that was stronger during 1986–2010 than during 1961–1985/2011–2020. The Rossby wave source anomalies shifted to North America and to the North Atlantic during the subsequent June and midsummer, respectively. Consequently, a teleconnection wave train, which originated over the North Pacific, propagated eastward to North America, across the North Atlantic, and on to East Asia on the subseasonal time scale, influencing midsummer precipitation over NEC through modulation of the atmospheric circulation (e.g., horizontal wind, moisture transport, and vertical movement). Moreover, the intensified Rossby wave anomalies associated with the May NPO were attributed to the strengthened NPO, which could be related to the enhanced standard deviation of SLP over the North Pacific. Additionally, the strengthened out‐of‐phase relation between the NPO and the North Atlantic Oscillation, resulting from changes in the background circulation, partially contributed to intensification of the Rossby wave train.

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“…ENSO phase transition from La Niña to El Niño is one of the important precursors of prolonged spring–summer drought in North China (Zhang et al ., 2018a). For instance, the drought‐prone condition in spring in southern East Asia was found to be affected by a persistent La Niña condition, while that in central East Asia was influenced by the negative phase of the North Pacific Oscillation (Park et al ., 2020). Prior to that word, Sun and Yang (2012) had pointed out that the La Niña event in winter 2010–2011 was a possible contributing factor for the persistent severe drought event that occurred in January–May of 2011 via weakening the western North Pacific subtropical high, which in a separate study was also found to be associated with spring drought over the Korean Peninsula, Japan, and Southeast China (Park et al ., 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

New downscaling prediction models for spring drought in China

Tian

Fan

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Accurate prediction of spring drought in China is helpful toward reducing associated agricultural losses. In this study, spring drought is defined as the three‐month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) ending in May. Based on the year‐to‐year increment and downscaling method, three single‐predictor prediction models (P1 model, P2 model, and P3 model) and two multi‐predictor models for spring drought at 677 stations in China are developed for the period 1983–2020. As physical processes affecting spring drought in the China region, the tropical Pacific–Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) in winter, the Davis Strait–Barents sea‐ice concentration (SIC) in winter, and the 500‐hPa spring vertical velocity, predicted by the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), are considered in the prediction models. The prediction skill of the downscaling models for the spring SPEI is measured by cross‐validation for the period 1983–2020. The CFSv2 model only shows convincing prediction skill for the spring SPEI at 35 of 677 stations. However, among the 677 stations, the temporal correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted spring SPEI at 621 stations for P1 model, 598 stations for P2 model, 545 stations for P3 model, 674 stations for the statistical downscaling model (SD model), and 675 stations for the hybrid downscaling dynamical–statistical prediction model (HD model) exceeds the 95% confidence level. Therefore, compared to the CFSv2 model, the prediction skill for spring drought is improved by the single‐predictor and multi‐predictor models. The prediction skill of HD model for spring drought, which combines preceding observational predictors and the simultaneous predictor of the CFSv2 model, is higher than that of SD model. In addition, the severe drought that occurred in Northeast and North China in spring 2017 can be successfully predicted by HD model.

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Interannual variations of spring drought-prone conditions over three subregions of East Asia and associated large-scale circulations

Cited by 11 publications

References 77 publications

Enhanced Linkage of Summer Drought in Southern China to the North Pacific Oscillation Since 2000

Enhanced Linkage of Summer Drought in Southern China to the North Pacific Oscillation Since 2000

Interdecadal Changes in the Linkage Between North Pacific Oscillation During May and Northeast China Precipitation During Mid‐Summer: The Influence of North Atlantic Oscillation

New downscaling prediction models for spring drought in China

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