Inter-annual variability of precipitation over Southern Mexico and Central America and its relationship to sea surface temperature from a set of future projections from CMIP5 GCMs and RegCM4 CORDEX simulations

Fuentes‐Franco, Ramón; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Filippo; Pavía, Edgar G.; Diro, G. T.; Graef, Federico

doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2258-6

Cited by 62 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…The RegCM series model has been widely used at different resolutions in many fields, such as land‐atmosphere interactions [ Mei et al ., ; Zou et al ., ], regional climate change [ Fuentes‐Franco et al ., ], and impacts of human activities on climate [ Chen and Xie , ; Qin et al ., ; Yuan et al ., ; Zou et al ., ], and has shown good performance.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detecting changes in future precipitation extremes over eight river basins in China using RegCM4 downscaling

Qin

Xie

2016

JGR Atmospheres

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To detect the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes in China for the middle 21st century, simulations were conducted with the regional climate model RegCM4 forced by the global climate model GFDL_ESM2M under the middle emission scenario (RCP4.5). Compared with observed precipitation extremes for the reference period from 1982 to 2001, RegCM4 generally performed better in most river basins of China relative to GFDL. In the future period 2032–2051, more wet extremes will occur relative to the present period in most study areas, especially in southeast China while significantly less dry extremes will occur in arid and semiarid areas in northwest China. In contrast, areas in northwest China showed an increase in the trend of dry extremes (CDD) and a decrease in the trend of wet extremes (R95p and Rx5day), which might result in more drought in the future. Finally, we discuss in detail the possible reason of these processes, such as zonal wind, vertical wind, and water vapor. In the Huaihe river basin (HU), reduced south winds in summer (June–August) and a decrease of the upward vertical p velocity cause less future precipitation and might lead to changes of extreme events. We also completed correlation analysis between the precipitation extreme indices and the climate factors and found that the precipitation extremes were more sensitive to the annual and seasonal mean precipitation, total water vapor, and upward vertical wind relative to the geopotential height and 2 m temperature over most river basins in China. Perhaps the changes of some wet extremes could be verified partly through changes of annual precipitation due to their high consistence.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detecting changes in future precipitation extremes over eight river basins in China using RegCM4 downscaling

Qin

Xie

2016

JGR Atmospheres

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“…As a limited area model developed and maintained by Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (Pal et al, ), the RegCM model has been widely applied to many fields at different resolutions and presented good performance, such as land–atmosphere interactions (Zou et al, ), regional climate change (Fuentes‐Franco et al, ), and impacts of human activities on climate (Qin, Xie, & Wang, ). Wherein, RegCM4 (Giorgi et al, ) is a primitive equation, sigma vertical coordinate model with dynamical component derived from Mesoscale Meteorological model version 5 of the National Centre for Atmosphere Research/Pennsylvania State University (Grell, Dudhia, & Stauffer, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological projections of future climate change over the source region of Yellow River and Yangtze River in the Tibetan Plateau: A comprehensive assessment by coupling RegCM4 and VIC model

Lü

Wang

Shao

et al. 2018

Hydrological Processes

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Understanding climate change impacts on hydrological regime and assessing future water supplies are essential to effective water resources management and planning, which is particularly true for the Tibetan Plateau (TP), one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change. In this study, future climate change in the TP was projected for 2041–2060 by a high‐resolution regional climate model, RegCM4, under 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs): 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Response of all key hydrological elements, that is, evapotranspiration, surface run‐off, baseflow, and snowmelt, to future climate in 2 typical catchments, the source regions of Yellow and Yangtze rivers, was further investigated by the variable infiltration capacity microscale hydrological model incorporated with a 2‐layer energy balance snow model and a frozen soil/permafrost algorithm at a 0.25°×0.25° spatial scale. The results reveal that (a) spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature from RegCM4 agree fairly well with the data from China Meteorological Forcing Dataset, indicating that RegCM4 well reproduces historical climatic information and thus is reliable to support future projection; (b) precipitation increase by 0–70% and temperature rise by 1–4 °C would occur in the TP under 3 RCPs. A clear south‐eastern–north‐western spatial increasing gradient in precipitation would be seen. Besides, under RCP8.5, the peak increase in temperature would approach to 4 °C in spring and autumn in the east of the TP; (c) evapotranspiration would increase by 10–60% in 2 source regions due to the temperature rise, surface run‐off and baseflow in higher elevation region would experience larger increase dominantly due to the precipitation increase, and streamflow would display general increases by more than 3% and 5% in the source regions of Yellow and Yangtze rivers, respectively; (d) snowmelt contributes 11.1% and 16.2% to total run‐off in the source regions of Yellow and Yangtze rivers, respectively, during the baseline period. In the source region of Yangtze River, snowmelt run‐off would become more important with increase of 17.5% and 18.3%, respectively, under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 but decrease of 15.0% under RCP8.5.

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“…In contrast, climate modeling for the Mesoamerican SMECOM zone predicts a significant drying trend for all IPCC scenarios with an increase in the frequency and duration of very dry seasons [43][44][45]. Fuentes-Franco et al [44] report that the drying trend is forced by greater warming of sea surface temperature (SST) on the Pacific side of the SMECOM isthmus relative to SST in the GoM.…”

Section: Climate Change Effects On River Dischargementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Southern Mexico and Central America region (SMECAM), of which the UGCPR watershed forms the northwestern portion, was first identified by Georgi [42] from GCM forecasts as a "climate change hot-spot in the tropics". This designation has been reinforced by Taylor et al [43], and most recently by Fuentes-Franco et al [44] based on a CMIP5 based RCM (RegCM4 CORDEX). Future discharge regimes for the UGCPR are inferred from runoff forecasts through the 2090s by Imbach et al [45] No fishery-independent data on shrimp populations exist for the Bay of Campeche [29], but such information from the northern GoM [32] indicates that penaid stocks are more affected by short-term changes in fishing effort (Figure 3) than by a 3800 km 2 (20%) loss of MAR delta wetlands since 1956 [12], the expansion of hypoxia on the LATEX shelf since the 1980s [13][14][15], the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill [17] or climate change.…”

Section: Ecological Resilience and Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

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Inter-annual variability of precipitation over Southern Mexico and Central America and its relationship to sea surface temperature from a set of future projections from CMIP5 GCMs and RegCM4 CORDEX simulations

Cited by 62 publications

References 58 publications

Detecting changes in future precipitation extremes over eight river basins in China using RegCM4 downscaling

Detecting changes in future precipitation extremes over eight river basins in China using RegCM4 downscaling

Hydrological projections of future climate change over the source region of Yellow River and Yangtze River in the Tibetan Plateau: A comprehensive assessment by coupling RegCM4 and VIC model

Can Continental Shelf River Plumes in the Northern and Southern Gulf of Mexico Promote Ecological Resilience in a Time of Climate Change?

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