Detecting changes in future precipitation extremes over eight river basins in China using RegCM4 downscaling

Qin, Peihua; Xie, Zhenghui

doi:10.1002/2016jd024776

Cited by 39 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 78 publications

(88 reference statements)

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“…Conversely, these indices are negatively correlated with seasonal/annual vertical wind and geopotential height, except for summer GPH with CWD. Strong correlation with both vertical winds and specific humidity at 850 hPa is also consistent with the previous studies (O'Gorman & Schneider, ; Qin & Xie, ). This is because moisture convergence associated with vertical motion is usually the main process that induces precipitation, which is particularly true for heavy precipitation (Chen et al, ; Schneider et al, ; Sugiyama et al, ).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

“…In order to better analyze extreme events over Canada, 10 precipitation extreme indices are derived from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (Frich et al, ; Sillmann, Kharin, Zhang, et al, ). In the past, the precipitation extreme indices have been widely employed in climate research studies (Bao et al, ; Li et al, ; Qin & Xie, ; Sillmann, Kharin, Zhang, et al, ; Sillmann, Kharin, Zwiers, et al, ). In detail, the precipitation extreme indices in this study can be classified into the following categories: (i) absolute indices (Rx1day and Rx5day), (ii) threshold indices (R10mm and R20mm), (iii) percentile indices (R95pTOT and R99pTOT), (iv) duration indices (CDD and CWD), and (v) other two indices (SDII and PRCPTOT; Qin & Xie, ; Sillmann, Kharin, Zhang, et al, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Impacts of climate change on precipitation extremes have been of concern to many researchers in recent decades (Bao et al, ; Hartmann et al, ; Held & Soden, ; Qin & Xie, ; Seager et al, ). Canada is now suffering tremendous amounts of damage due to more frequent and severe precipitation extremes (Held & Soden, ; Seager et al, ; Wang et al, ; Zhou, Huang, Wang, et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes Over Canada: Driving Factors and Inherent Mechanism

et al. 2018

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In this study, future changes in precipitation extremes over 10 climatic regions in Canada and their mechanism under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) throughout the 21st century are investigated by using the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) model. The performance of PRECIS in hindcasting total and extreme precipitation for the historical period is first evaluated through two experiments driven by the boundary conditions from both ERA‐Interim (1979–2011) and HadGEM2‐ES (1959–2005). The validation results indicate that PRECIS can reasonably reproduce both the magnitudes and spatial patterns of precipitation extremes over Canada. Changes in total and extreme precipitation for two future periods are analyzed to explore how regional climate over different climatic regions would respond to global warming. Mechanism governing changes in precipitation extremes is explored through a comprehensive analysis of potential climate factors and their correlations and interactions with precipitation extremes. There are obvious increasing trends over most regions for the magnitude of precipitation extremes except for the duration indices. Averages of projected precipitation extremes over the climatic regions in Canada are projected to increase under RCP4.5. Such increases under RCP8.5 would be amplified due to higher greenhouse gas emissions. The projected changes in total precipitation are dominated by changes in wind velocity and relative humidity (e.g., changes in horizontal water vapor flux that would have significant effects on the occurrence of precipitation in Canada). In addition, the changes in the majority of precipitation extremes are commonly attributed to the changes in the saturation vapor pressure due to warmer temperature as described by the Clausius‐Clapeyron equation.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes Over Canada: Driving Factors and Inherent Mechanism

et al. 2018

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“…By using RCMs, which is also called the dynamic downscaling technique, many studies of the regional climate over China have been performed (e.g. Zou and Zhou, ; Yu et al ., ; Bao et al ., ; Qin and Xie, ; Tang et al ., ; Yang et al ., ). In addition, increasing attention has been paid to climate extremes in recent years because of the potentially severe consequences (Fowler and Wilby, ; IPCC, ; Liu et al ., ; Moore et al ., ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change projections over China using regional climate models forced by two CMIP5 global models. Part I: evaluation of historical simulations

Hui

Tang

Wang

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Forced by two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global models, EC‐EARTH and IPSL‐CM5A, both regional climate models (RCMs) of Regional Climate Model system version 4 (RegCM4) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) are used to perform regional climate simulations over China for 1980–2000. In general, the simulations in Institute Pierre Simon Laplace‐Climate Model version 5A (IPSL‐CM5A) are improved by the downscaling of many aspects of both precipitation and surface air temperature, with improvements including the significant enhancement of the resolution and presentation of regional processes in the RCMs. However, the improvement over EC‐EARTH is limited. In addition, the added values also depend on the seasons, geophysical locations over the country and the variables presented. For the mean climates, both RCMs are able to exhibit better annual and winter precipitation measurements when downscaling IPSL‐CM5A over most areas. The superiority of the RCMs over IPSL‐CM5A for the surface air temperature is only obtained in summer. Seasonal cycles of both precipitation and surface air temperature are well simulated by all the models. The RCMs succeed in improving the seasonal cycles of precipitation over both GCMs in most sub‐regions, but the seasonal cycles of temperature are only improved over IPSL‐CM5A. In addition, the downscaling demonstrates more consistent probability distribution functions (PDFs) of precipitation with those of the observations in most sub‐regions. For extreme precipitation, the RCMs provide outstanding convective wet days (CWD) with reduced biases and enhanced presentations of spatial patterns. For the other three extreme precipitation indices, the improvement of the RCMs is relatively weak, with superior over the IPSL‐CM5A in several areas. The extreme temperature indices are better modelled by the RCMs, except for the minimum values of the daily minimum temperatures (TNn), with greater added values over IPSL‐CM5A than those over EC‐EARTH. Comparing two RCMs, WRF shows advantages in the downscaling precipitation, while RegCM4 works better for the surface air temperature.

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“…Much attention has been paid to precipitation extremes in China based on observations [ Gemmer et al ., ; You et al ., ; Zhai et al ., ], global climate models (GCMs) [ Jiang et al ., ; Li et al ., ], and regional climate models (RCMs) [ Gao et al ., ; Qin and Xie , ]. Sillmann et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precipitation extremes in the dry and wet regions of China and their connections with the sea surface temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean

Qin

Xie

2017

JGR Atmospheres

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We investigated the connections between the precipitation extremes during 1953–2002 in the dry and wet regions of China and the sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (ETP; including EI Niño–Southern Oscillation 1.2, 3, and 3.4 regions) based on two sets of observations, 17 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, and nine regional climate model (RCM) results, which were downscaled using the RCM RegCM4. The grid cells with the lowest 30% nonmissing precipitation extremes were identified as the dry region, and those with the highest 30% comprised the wet region. Compared with observed extreme indices, the CMIP5 ensemble could simulate the temporal averages and spatial patterns of extreme indices in the dry and wet regions, where the temporal averages of the indices based on RCMs matched better with those of the observed indices. In the dry region of China, the extreme precipitation indices had positive regression coefficients versus the SST of the ETP for all data sets, but the linear relationships of the extreme indices with the SST were more complex in the wet region. Finally, we investigated the variations of the correlations of precipitation extremes with the SST of ETP in multiple RCM results and CMIP5 models, respectively.

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Detecting changes in future precipitation extremes over eight river basins in China using RegCM4 downscaling

Cited by 39 publications

References 78 publications

Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes Over Canada: Driving Factors and Inherent Mechanism

Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes Over Canada: Driving Factors and Inherent Mechanism

Climate change projections over China using regional climate models forced by two CMIP5 global models. Part I: evaluation of historical simulations

Precipitation extremes in the dry and wet regions of China and their connections with the sea surface temperature in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean

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