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This paper presents a methodology for regional parameter estimation of the three-layer Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model with the goal of improving the streamflow simulation for river basins in China. This methodology is designed to obtain model parameter estimates from a limited number of calibrated basins and then regionalize them to uncalibrated basins based on climate characteristics and large river basin domains, and ultimately to continental China. Fourteen basins from different climatic zones and large river basins were chosen for model calibration. For each of these basins, seven runoff-related model parameters were calibrated using a systematic manual calibration approach. These calibrated parameters were then transferred within the climate and large river basin zones or climatic zones to the uncalibrated basins. To test the efficiency of the parameter regionalization method, a verification study was conducted on 19 independent river basins in China. Overall, the regionalized parameters, when evaluated against the a priori parameter estimates, were able to reduce the model bias by 0.4%-249.8% and relative root-mean-squared error by 0.2%-119.1% and increase the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of the streamflow simulation by 1.9%-31.7% for most of the tested basins. The transferred parameters were then used to perform a hydrological simulation over all of China so as to test the applicability of the regionalized parameters on a continental scale. The continental simulation results agree well with the observations at regional scales, indicating that the tested regionalization method is a promising scheme for parameter estimation for ungauged basins in China.

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[1] The adjoint and tangent linear models in the traditional four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) are difficult to obtain if the forecast model is highly nonlinear or the model physics contains parameterized discontinuities. A new method (referred to as POD-E4DVAR) is proposed in this paper by merging the Monte Carlo method and the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) technique into 4DVAR to transform an implicit optimization problem into an explicit one. The POD method is used to efficiently approximate a forecast ensemble produced by the Monte Carlo method in a 4-dimensional (4-D) space using a set of base vectors that span the ensemble and capture its spatial structure and temporal evolution. After the analysis variables are represented by a truncated expansion of the base vectors in the 4-D space, the control (state) variables in the cost function appear explicit so that the adjoint model, which is used to derive the gradient of the cost function with respect to the control variables in the traditional 4DVAR, is no longer needed. The application of this new technique significantly simplifies the data assimilation process and retains the two main advantages of the traditional 4DVAR method. Assimilation experiments show that this ensemble-based explicit 4DVAR method performs much better than the traditional 4DVAR and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method. It is also superior to another explicit 4DVAR method, especially when the forecast model is imperfect and the forecast error comes from both the noise of the initial field and the uncertainty in the forecast model. Computational costs for the new POD-E4DVAR are about twice as the traditional 4DVAR method but 5% less than the other explicit 4DVAR and much lower than the EnKF method. Another assimilation experiment conducted within the Lorenz model indicates potential wider applications of this new POD-E4DVAR method.