Intensified dust storm activity and Valley fever infection in the southwestern United States

Tong, Daniel; Wang, Julian X. L.; Gill, Thomas E.; Lei, Hang; Wang, Binyu

doi:10.1002/2017gl073524

Cited by 189 publications

(192 citation statements)

References 68 publications

(108 reference statements)

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“…In combination with reduced water availability for irrigation, these factors may increase the number of dust storms, which are known to carry large numbers of fungal spores (Griffin, ). Dust storm activity in the United States increased in recent decades and has been linked to changes in valley fever incidence (Tong et al, ; Williams et al, ). Other short‐lived natural dust events, including a landslide triggered by an earthquake, have also been related to valley fever outbreaks (Harp & Jibson, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Soil disturbance from construction sites (California Department of Public Health, ; Wilken et al, ), military training (Smith, Beard, Rosenberger, et al, ), archaeological digs (Perera et al, ; Petersen et al, ; Werner & Pappagianis, ), and film shoots (Wilken et al, ) have been associated with valley fever outbreaks. Dust storms have also been correlated with increased incidence in a few, highly endemic Arizona counties (Tong et al, ) and have caused localized outbreaks of valley fever in California (Williams et al, ). Human soil disturbance may exacerbate these natural events, leading to increased exposure to Coccidioides spp.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Coccidioidomycosis Dynamics in Relation to Climate in the Southwestern United States

et al. 2018

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Valley fever is endemic to the southwestern United States. Humans contract this fungal disease by inhaling spores of Coccidioides spp. Changes in the environment can influence the abundance and dispersal of Coccidioides spp., causing fluctuations in valley fever incidence. We combined county‐level case records from state health agencies to create a regional valley fever database for the southwestern United States, including Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. We used this data set to explore how environmental factors influenced the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics of valley fever incidence during 2000–2015. We compiled climate and environmental geospatial data sets from multiple sources to compare with valley fever incidence. These variables included air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, surface dust concentration, normalized difference vegetation index, and cropland area. We found that valley fever incidence was greater in areas with warmer air temperatures and drier soils. The mean annual cycle of incidence varied throughout the southwestern United States and peaked following periods of low precipitation and soil moisture. From year‐to‐year, however, autumn incidence was higher following cooler, wetter, and productive springs in the San Joaquin Valley of California. In southcentral Arizona, incidence increased significantly through time. By 2015, incidence in this region was more than double the rate in the San Joaquin Valley. Our analysis provides a framework for interpreting the influence of climate change on valley fever incidence dynamics. Our results may allow the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to improve their estimates of the spatial pattern and intensity of valley fever endemicity.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coccidioidomycosis Dynamics in Relation to Climate in the Southwestern United States

et al. 2018

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“…Climate models consistently project that southwestern North America, a region containing extensive wind-erodible and human-disturbed drylands and deserts, will transition to an even more arid hydroclimate under continued greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing (Ault et al, 2016; Wehner et al, 2017). Recent studies suggest that such changes may lead to enhanced dust activity in the U.S. Southwest (Achakulwisut et al, 2017; Tong et al, 2017). In a previous study, Achakulwisut et al (2018) provided one of the first estimates of the climate-attributable impacts on fine dust (FD) and public health in the U.S. Southwest.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change

Achakulwisut

Anenberg

Neumann³

et al. 2019

GeoHealth

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The U.S. Southwest is projected to experience increasing aridity due to climate change. We quantify the resulting impacts on ambient dust levels and public health using methods consistent with the Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework. We first demonstrate that U.S. Southwest fine (PM 2.5 ) and coarse (PM 2.5‐10 ) dust levels are strongly sensitive to variability in the 2‐month Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index across southwestern North America. We then estimate potential changes in dust levels through 2099 by applying the observed sensitivities to downscaled meteorological output projected by six climate models following an intermediate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, RCP4.5) and a high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration scenario. By 2080–2099 under RCP8.5 relative to 1986–2005 in the U.S. Southwest: (1) Fine dust levels could increase by 57%, and fine dust‐attributable all‐cause mortality and hospitalizations could increase by 230% and 360%, respectively; (2) coarse dust levels could increase by 38%, and coarse dust‐attributable cardiovascular mortality and asthma emergency department visits could increase by 210% and 88%, respectively; (3) climate‐driven changes in dust concentrations can account for 34–47% of these health impacts, with the rest due to increases in population and baseline incidence rates; and (4) economic damages of the health impacts could total $47 billion per year additional to the 1986–2005 value of $13 billion per year. Compared to national‐scale climate impacts projected for other U.S. sectors using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework, dust‐related mortality ranks fourth behind extreme temperature‐related mortality, labor productivity decline, and coastal property loss.

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“…Using IMPROVE data, Hand et al (2016) found an increasing trend of fine dust in spring in the southwestern US during 1995-2014 and related this trend to a negative Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) from 2007 to 2014. Tong et al (2017) also found a rapid increase in dust storm activity in the southwestern US from 1988 to 2011 and related the trend to sea surface temperature variations in the Pacific. Later, examined the trends of IMPROVE fine dust concentration in different seasons from 2000 to 2014 and found positive trends over the southwestern US in spring and over the central US in summer and fall.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic factors contributing to long-term variations in surface fine dust concentration in the United States

Ginoux

2018

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. High concentrations of dust particles can cause respiratory problems and increase non-accidental mortality. Studies found fine dust (with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 µm) is an important component of the total PM 2.5 mass in the western and central US in spring and summer and has positive trends. This work examines climatic factors influencing long-term variations in surface fine dust concentration in the US using station data from the Interagency Monitoring Protected Visual Environments (IM-PROVE) network during 1990-2015. The variations in the fine dust concentration can be largely explained by the variations in precipitation, surface bareness, and 10 m wind speed. Moreover, including convective parameters such as convective inhibition (CIN) and convective available potential energy (CAPE) that reveal the stability of the atmosphere better explains the variations and trends over the Great Plains from spring to fall.While the positive trend of fine dust concentration in the southwestern US in spring is associated with precipitation deficit, the increase in fine dust over the central Great Plains in summer is largely associated with enhanced CIN and weakened CAPE, which are caused by increased atmospheric stability due to surface drying and lower-troposphere warming. The strengthening of the Great Plains low-level jet also contributes to the increase in fine dust concentration in the central Great Plains in summer via its positive correlation with surface winds and negative correlation with CIN.Summer dusty days in the central Great Plains are usually associated with a westward extension of the North Atlantic subtropical high that intensifies the Great Plains low-level jet and also results in a stable atmosphere with subsidence and reduced precipitation.

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Intensified dust storm activity and Valley fever infection in the southwestern United States

Cited by 189 publications

References 68 publications

Coccidioidomycosis Dynamics in Relation to Climate in the Southwestern United States

Coccidioidomycosis Dynamics in Relation to Climate in the Southwestern United States

Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change

Climatic factors contributing to long-term variations in surface fine dust concentration in the United States

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