Coccidioidomycosis Dynamics in Relation to Climate in the Southwestern United States

Gorris, Morgan E.; Cat, Linh Anh; Zender, Charles S.; Treseder, Kathleen K.; Randerson, James T.

doi:10.1002/2017gh000095

Cited by 86 publications

(93 citation statements)

References 66 publications

(101 reference statements)

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“…For example, higher ambient dust concentrations could lead to increased exposures of known soil-borne contaminants in the U.S. Southwest such as heavy metals from mining operations and the Valley Fever-causing Coccidioides spp. fungi (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2013; Csavina et al, 2012; Gorris et al, 2018). Exposure to desert dust has also been linked to morbidity related to the reproductive and nervous systems (Zhang et al, 2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change

Achakulwisut

Anenberg

Neumann³

et al. 2019

GeoHealth

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The U.S. Southwest is projected to experience increasing aridity due to climate change. We quantify the resulting impacts on ambient dust levels and public health using methods consistent with the Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework. We first demonstrate that U.S. Southwest fine (PM 2.5 ) and coarse (PM 2.5‐10 ) dust levels are strongly sensitive to variability in the 2‐month Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index across southwestern North America. We then estimate potential changes in dust levels through 2099 by applying the observed sensitivities to downscaled meteorological output projected by six climate models following an intermediate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, RCP4.5) and a high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration scenario. By 2080–2099 under RCP8.5 relative to 1986–2005 in the U.S. Southwest: (1) Fine dust levels could increase by 57%, and fine dust‐attributable all‐cause mortality and hospitalizations could increase by 230% and 360%, respectively; (2) coarse dust levels could increase by 38%, and coarse dust‐attributable cardiovascular mortality and asthma emergency department visits could increase by 210% and 88%, respectively; (3) climate‐driven changes in dust concentrations can account for 34–47% of these health impacts, with the rest due to increases in population and baseline incidence rates; and (4) economic damages of the health impacts could total $47 billion per year additional to the 1986–2005 value of $13 billion per year. Compared to national‐scale climate impacts projected for other U.S. sectors using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework, dust‐related mortality ranks fourth behind extreme temperature‐related mortality, labor productivity decline, and coastal property loss.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change

Achakulwisut

Anenberg

Neumann³

et al. 2019

GeoHealth

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“…The association between increased periods of dust and increases in Coccidiomycosis exposure rates and outbreaks suggests a potential causal relation between wind erosion and infection (Comrie , Goudie , Gorris et al. ).…”

Section: Human Health and Economic Well‐beingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Coccidiomycosis is a potentially fatal infection caused by inhalation of airborne spores of Coccidioides immitis, a soil dwelling fungus found in the southwestern United States. The association between increased periods of dust and increases in Coccidiomycosis exposure rates and outbreaks suggests a potential causal relation between wind erosion and infection (Comrie 2005, Goudie 2014, Gorris et al 2018.…”

Section: Human Health and Economic Well-beingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wind erosion and dust from US drylands: a review of causes, consequences, and solutions in a changing world

et al. 2019

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Erosion by wind is one of the principal processes associated with land degradation in drylands and is a significant concern to land managers and policymakers globally. In the drylands of North America, millions of tons of soil are lost to wind erosion annually. Of the 60 million ha in the United States identified as most vulnerable to wind erosion (arid and dominated by fine sandy soils), 64% are managed by federal agencies (37 million ha). Here we review the drivers and consequences of wind erosion and dust emissions on drylands in the United States, with an emphasis on actionable responses available to policymakers and practitioners. We find that while dryland soils are often relatively stable when intact, disturbances including fire, domestic livestock grazing, and off‐highway vehicles can increase horizontal eolian flux by an order of magnitude, in some cases as much as 40‐fold. A growing body of literature documents the large‐scale impacts of deposited dust changing the albedo of mountain snow cover and in some cases reducing regional water supplies by ~5%. Predicted future increases in aridity and extreme weather events, including drought, will likely increase wind erosion and consequent dust generation. Under a drier and more variable future climate, new and existing soil‐ and vegetation‐disturbing practices may interact in synergistic ways, with dire consequences for environments and society that are unforeseen to many but fairly predictable given current scientific understanding. Conventional restoration and reclamation approaches, which often entail surface disturbance and rely on adequate moisture to prevent erosion, also carry considerable erosion risk especially under drought conditions. Innovative approaches to dryland restoration that minimize surface disturbance may accomplish restoration or reclamation goals while limiting wind erosion risk. Finally, multidisciplinary and multijurisdictional approaches and perspectives are necessary to understand the complex processes driving dust emissions and provide timely, context‐specific information for mitigating the drivers and impacts of wind erosion and dust.

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“…On a regional scale, weather and climate are known to influence the seasonal and interannual variability of disease incidence. Previous studies support a pattern of wet, then dry conditions preceding increased Valley fever incidence across the southwestern United States (Comrie, 2005;Coopersmith et al, 2017;Gorris et al, 2018;Kolivras & Comrie, 2003;Komatsu et al, 2003;Park et al, 2005;Talamantes et al, 2007;Tamerius & Comrie, 2011;Zender & Talamantes, 2006). These dual controls first increase fungal growth during periods of higher than normal moisture.…”

mentioning

confidence: 83%

“…in the environment are temperature and precipitation (Baptista‐Rosas et al, ; Fisher et al, ; Gorris et al, ). County‐level Valley fever case reports from 2000 to 2015 across five states in the southwestern United States revealed the spatial pattern of incidence has a nonlinear positive relationship with mean annual temperature and nonlinear inverse relationship with mean annual precipitation (Gorris et al, ). Ultimately, these two climate conditions structure the presence of deserts: the biome in which Coccidioides spp.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Expansion of Coccidioidomycosis Endemic Regions in the United States in Response to Climate Change

et al. 2019

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Coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever) is a fungal disease endemic to the southwestern United States. Across this region, temperature and precipitation influence the extent of the endemic region and number of Valley fever cases. Climate projections for the western United States indicate that temperatures will increase and precipitation patterns will shift, which may alter disease dynamics. We estimated the area potentially endemic to Valley fever using a climate niche model derived from contemporary climate and disease incidence data. We then used our model with projections of climate from Earth system models to assess how endemic areas will change during the 21st century. By 2100 in a high warming scenario, our model predicts that the area of climate‐limited endemicity will more than double, the number of affected states will increase from 12 to 17, and the number of Valley fever cases will increase by 50%. The Valley fever endemic region will expand north into dry western states, including Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota. Precipitation will limit the disease from spreading into states farther east and along the central and northern Pacific coast. This is the first quantitative estimate of how climate change may influence Valley fever in the United States. Our predictive model of Valley fever endemicity may provide guidance to public health officials to establish disease surveillance programs and design mitigation efforts to limit the impacts of this disease.

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Coccidioidomycosis Dynamics in Relation to Climate in the Southwestern United States

Cited by 86 publications

References 66 publications

Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change

Effects of Increasing Aridity on Ambient Dust and Public Health in the U.S. Southwest Under Climate Change

Wind erosion and dust from US drylands: a review of causes, consequences, and solutions in a changing world

Expansion of Coccidioidomycosis Endemic Regions in the United States in Response to Climate Change

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