Integrating spatial accessibility in the design of volcano evacuation plans in the French West Indies (Guadeloupe and Martinique)

Leone, Frédéric; Komorowski, Jean‐Christophe; Gherardi-Leone, Monique; Lalubie, Guillaume

doi:10.1186/s13617-019-0089-1

Cited by 9 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…This work thus contributes to a volcanic risk assessment strategy in Guadeloupe initiated several years ago (Komorowski et al 2005(Komorowski et al , 2008(Komorowski et al , 2013Hincks et al 2014;Legendre 2012;Peruzzetto et al 2019;Leone et al 2019), with the first integrated hazard map for SDG being produced by Komorowski et al (2005). Subsequently a first attempt to characterize the eruptive behaviour in a systematic way was carried out by Komorowski et al (2008), who defined a logical event tree for magmatic unrest and eruptions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Modelling pyroclastic density currents from a subplinian eruption at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (West Indies, France)

et al. 2020

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We have used a three-dimensional, non-equilibrium multiphase flow numerical model to simulate subplinian eruption scenarios at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (Lesser Antilles, France). Initial and boundary conditions for computer simulations were set on the basis of independent estimates of eruption source parameters (i.e. mass eruption rate, volatile content, temperature, grain size distribution) from a field reconstruction of the 1530 CE subplinian eruption. This event is here taken as a reference scenario for hazard assessment at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe. A parametric study on eruption source parameters allowed us to quantify their influence on the simulated dynamics and, in particular, the increase of the percentage of column collapse and pyroclastic density current (PDC) intensity, at constant mass eruption rate, with variable vent diameter. Numerical results enabled us to quantify the effects of the proximal morphology on distributing the collapsing mass around the volcano and into deep and long valleys and to estimate the areas invaded by PDCs, their associated temperature and dynamic pressure. Significant impact (temperature > 300 °C and dynamic pressure > 1 kPa) in the inhabited region around the volcano is expected for fully collapsing conditions and mass eruption rates > 2 × 107 kg/s. We thus combine this spatial distribution of temperature and dynamic pressure with an objective consideration of model-related uncertainty to produce preliminary PDC hazard maps for the reference scenario. In such a representation, we identify three areas of varying degree of susceptibility to invasion by PDCs—very likely to be invaded (and highly impacted), susceptible to invasion (and moderately impacted), and unlikely to be invaded (or marginally impacted). The study also raises some key questions about the use of deterministic scenario simulations for hazard assessment, where probability distributions and uncertainties are difficult to estimate. Use of high-performance computing techniques will in part allow us to overcome such difficulties, but the problem remains open in a scientific context where validation of numerical models is still, necessarily, an incomplete and ongoing process. Nevertheless, our findings provide an important contribution to the quantitative assessment of volcanic hazard and risk at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe particularly in the context of the current unrest of the volcano and the need to prepare for a possible future reawakening of the volcano that could culminate in a magmatic explosive eruption.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Modelling pyroclastic density currents from a subplinian eruption at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (West Indies, France)

et al. 2020

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“…Our study is timely due to recent, increasing unrest over the last 25 years with a significant risk of an eruption at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe. Approximately 70,000 people live and work in Southern Basse-Terre in the path of previous pyroclastic density currents and debris flows (Komorowski, 2008;Leone et al, 2019). This highlights the need to fully understand the magmatic system, including the timescales of magmatic processes related to unrest before eruption in order to improve early-warning systems, forecast models, crisis response management for different scenarios, and long-term risk reduction planning.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Magmatic Processes at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe: Insights From Crystal Studies and Diffusion Timescales for Eruption Onset

et al. 2021

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Signals of volcanic unrest do not usually provide insights into the timing, size and style of future eruptions, but detailed analysis of past eruptions may uncover patterns that can be used to understand future eruptive behavior. Here, we examine basaltic-andesitic to andesitic eruption deposits from La Soufrière de Guadeloupe, covering a range of eruption styles, ages and magnitudes. Our work is timely given unrest at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe has increased over the last 25 years. We constrain the timescales of magmatic processes preceding four eruptions: 1657 Cal. CE (Vulcanian), 1010 Cal. CE (Plinian), ∼341 Cal. CE (Strombolian) and 5680 Cal. BCE (La Soufrière de Guadeloupe’s first known Plinian eruption). Using crystal-specific analyses of diffusion in orthopyroxenes, we calculate the timescale occurring between the last recharge/mixing event in the magma reservoir and the eruption. We use backscattered electron images, coupled with EMPA of the outermost crystal rim, to derive magmatic timescales. We model the timescale populations as random processes whose probability distributions provide expected (“mean”) timescales and the associated standard errors for each eruption. This provides a new statistical method for comparing magmatic timescales between disparate eruptions. From this, we obtain timescales of magma storage at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe ranging from 34.8 ± 0.4 days to 847 ± 0.4 days, with no clear distinction between eruption style/size and timescales observed. Based on these data, magmatic interaction timescales are a poor predictor of eruption style/size. This study shows that magmatic processes prior to eruption can occur on relatively short timescales at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe. Further to this basaltic-andesitic to andesitic volcanoes can rapidly produce large-scale eruptions on short timescales. These relatively short timescales calculated for volcanic processes at this system constitute a critical new data set and warrant an urgency in enhancing modeling and interpretation capabilities for near-real time monitoring data. These integrated efforts will improve early warning, eruption forecasting and crisis response management for different scenarios, as well as planning for long-term risk reduction.

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“…Evacuation orders can be issued before the actual onset of an eruption when increasing volcanic unrest is observed. This type of evacuation is an important preventive measure and an efficient response to minimize human impacts (Baxter et al, 1998;Leone et al, 2019;Wilson et al, 2012). If planned and implemented well, preventive evacuation can save lives, as was the case in many past volcanic emergencies, including the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo in the Philippines, the 2006 and 2010 Merapi eruptions in Indonesia, the 2017-2019 eruption of Mt Agung in Bali, and the 2017-2018 eruption of Manaro Voui in Vanuatu (e.g.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…If planned and implemented well, preventive evacuation can save lives, as was the case in many past volcanic emergencies, including the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo in the Philippines, the 2006 and 2010 Merapi eruptions in Indonesia, the 2017-2019 eruption of Mt Agung in Bali, and the 2017-2018 eruption of Manaro Voui in Vanuatu (e.g. Leone et al, 2019). Evacuation can also be initiated after the beginning of an eruption, especially in the case of short-fuse events with little to no warning.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Assessing the effectiveness and the economic impact of evacuation: the case of the island of Vulcano, Italy

Bonadonna

Asgary

Romerio

et al. 2022

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Evacuation planning and management represent a key aspect of volcanic crises because they can increase people's protection as well as minimize potential impacts on the economy, properties and infrastructure of the affected area. We present an agent-based simulation tool that assesses the effectiveness of different evacuation scenarios using the small island of Vulcano (southern Italy) as a case study. Simulation results show that the overall time needed to evacuate people should be analysed together with the percentage of people evacuated as a function of time and that a simultaneous evacuation on Vulcano is more efficient than a staged evacuation. For example, during the touristic (high) season between July and August, even though the overall duration is similar for both evacuation strategies, after ∼ 6 h about 96 % of people would be evacuated with a simultaneous evacuation, while only 86 % would be evacuated with a staged evacuation. We also present a model to assess the economic impact of evacuation as a function of evacuation duration and of the starting period with respect to the touristic season. It reveals that if an evacuation lasting 3 to 6 months was initiated at the beginning or at the end of the touristic season (i.e. June or November), it would cause a very different economic impact on the tourism industry (about 78 %–88 % and 2 %–7 % of the total annual turnover, respectively). Our results show how the assessment of evacuation scenarios that consider human and economic impact carried out in a pre-disaster context helps authorities develop evacuation plans and make informed decisions outside the highly stressful time period that characterizes crises.

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Integrating spatial accessibility in the design of volcano evacuation plans in the French West Indies (Guadeloupe and Martinique)

Cited by 9 publications

References 59 publications

Modelling pyroclastic density currents from a subplinian eruption at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (West Indies, France)

Modelling pyroclastic density currents from a subplinian eruption at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe (West Indies, France)

Magmatic Processes at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe: Insights From Crystal Studies and Diffusion Timescales for Eruption Onset

Assessing the effectiveness and the economic impact of evacuation: the case of the island of Vulcano, Italy

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