Integrating risks of climate change into water management

Döll, Petra; Jiménez–Cisneros, Blanca; Oki, Taikan; Arnell, Nigel W.; Benito, Gerardo; Cogley, J. Graham; Jiang, Tong; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Mwakalila, Shadrack; Nishijima, Ayumu

doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.967250

Cited by 133 publications

(88 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Arnell, 2011, Hughes et al 2011, Xu et al 2010. Several sources of uncertainty exist (Döll et al 2015), the largest of which, in many cases, has been attributed to the different projections of future climate provided by different global climate models (e.g. Graham et al 2007, Prudhomme and).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Projections of hydrology in the Tocantins-Araguaia Basin, Brazil: uncertainty assessment using the CMIP5 ensemble

Thompson

Brierley

2016

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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A semi-distributed hydrological model is developed, calibrated and validated against unregulated river discharge from the Tocantins-Araguaia River Basin, northern Brazil. Climate change impacts are simulated using projections from the 41 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models for the period 2071-2100 under the RCP4.5 scenario. Scenario results are compared to a 1971-2000 baseline. Most climate models suggest declines in mean annual discharge although some predict increases. A large proportion suggest that the dry season experiences large declines in discharge, especially during the transition to the rising water period. Most models (>75%) suggest declines in annual minimum flows. This may have major implications for both current and planned hydropower schemes. There is greater uncertainty in projected changes in wet season and annual maximum discharges. Two techniques are investigated to reduce uncertainty in projections, but neither are able to provide more confidence in the simulated changes in discharge.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Projections of hydrology in the Tocantins-Araguaia Basin, Brazil: uncertainty assessment using the CMIP5 ensemble

Thompson

Brierley

2016

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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“…Only in the dry Sahelian part, the AMAX variability increases significantly during wet periods, and more extreme flood magnitudes become more probable. In order to account for dynamics of the entire basin and include climate change induced flood risk, detailed modelling studies on a subregional level are a prerequisite in order to project future flood risks in the NRB and discuss uncertainties [82]. Such an effort should include land-use change, population density and vulnerability, all of which are very likely strong factors for flood risk in the basin.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time Series Analysis of Floods across the Niger River Basin

Aich

Koné²,

Hattermann

et al. 2016

Water

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Abstract:This study analyses the increasing number of catastrophic floods in the Niger River Basin, focusing on the relation between long term hydro-climatic variability and flood risk over the last 40 to 100 years. Time series for three subregions (Guinean, Sahelian, Benue) show a general consistency between the annual maximum discharge (AMAX) and climatic decadal patterns in West Africa regarding both trends and major changepoints. Variance analysis reveals rather stable AMAX distributions except for the Sahelian region, implying that the changes in flood behavior differ within the basin and affect mostly the dry Sahelian region. The timing of the floods within the year has changed only downstream of the Inner Niger Delta due to retention processes. The results of the hydro-climatic analysis generally correspond to the presented damage statistics on people affected by catastrophic floods. The damage statistics shows positive trends for the entire basin since the beginning in the 1980s, with the most extreme increase in the Middle Niger.

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“…The hydrologic modeling should also be used to drive models of sediment load for projecting reservoir in-filling and wear and tear on turbines (Toniolo and Schultz, 2005). National assessments are important for understanding relative hydroclimate vulnerability (Rummukainen et al, 2003;Hurd et al, 1999;Lettenmaier et al, 1999), while basinlevel models can provide more specific projections to inform water management (Döll et al, 2015;Frigon et al, 2007). In several studies of the Colorado River basin, it was found that under most projected climate scenarios, reduced flows in the river result in annual in-stream allocations being met less frequently, along with hydropower production declines (Vano et al, 2010;Rajagopalan et al, 2009;Christensen, 2004).…”

Section: Long-term Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Planning for climate change impacts on hydropower in the Far North

Cherry

Knapp

Trainor

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Unlike much of the contiguous United States, new hydropower development continues in the Far North, where climate models project precipitation will likely increase over the next century. Regional complexities in the Arctic and subArctic, such as glacier recession and permafrost thaw, however, introduce uncertainties about the hydrologic responses to climate change that impact water resource management. This work reviews hydroclimate changes in the Far North and their impacts on hydropower; it provides a template for application of current techniques for prediction and estimating uncertainty, and it describes best practices for integrating science into management and decision-making. The growing number of studies on hydrologic impacts suggests that information resulting from climate change science has matured enough that it can and should be integrated into hydropower scoping, design, and management. Continuing to ignore the best available information in lieu of status quo planning is likely to prove costly to society in the long term.

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Integrating risks of climate change into water management

Cited by 133 publications

References 20 publications

Projections of hydrology in the Tocantins-Araguaia Basin, Brazil: uncertainty assessment using the CMIP5 ensemble

Projections of hydrology in the Tocantins-Araguaia Basin, Brazil: uncertainty assessment using the CMIP5 ensemble

Time Series Analysis of Floods across the Niger River Basin

Planning for climate change impacts on hydropower in the Far North

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