Integrating Perspectives to Understand Lake Ice Dynamics in a Changing World

Sharma, Sapna; Meyer, Michael F.; Culpepper, Joshua; Yang, Xiao; Hampton, Stephanie E.; Berger, Stella A.; Brousil, Matthew R.; Fradkin, Steven C.; Higgins, Scott N.; Jankowski, Kathi Jo; Kirillin, Georgiy; Smits, Adrianne P.; Whitaker, Emily C.; Yousef, Foad; Zhang, Shuai

doi:10.1029/2020jg005799

Cited by 53 publications

(53 citation statements)

References 160 publications

(225 reference statements)

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“…Larger, deeper lakes require colder air temperatures to freeze and take longer to cool in the fall. In addition, lakes with longer fetches are more likely to lose the initial skim of ice through increased wind action and are additionally sensitive to experiencing an ice‐free year (Sharma et al., 2019, 2020; Woolway et al., 2020). For example, we found that the ice‐free threshold for deeper and larger lakes, such as Lake Champlain and Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan was below −5 °C.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Permanent Loss of Lake Ice in the Northern Hemisphere Within the 21st Century

Sharma

Blagrave

Filazzola

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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For over 1,100 years, humans have recorded information on lake ice cover because of our dependence on ice for transportation, refrigeration, food harvest, and recreation (Knoll et al., 2019; Magnuson & Lathrop, 2014). Two of the longest ice records began for religious purposes: priests recorded and celebrated the timing of lake ice freeze in Lake Constance, Germany (875-present) and Lake Suwa, Japan (1,443-present). In stark contrast to historical patterns, Lake Constance froze for the last time in 1963 and Lake Suwa has frozen only twice per decade since 1988 (Knoll et al., 2019; Sharma et al., 2016). This loss of ice cover precipitates the question, when will lakes experiencing intermittent winter ice cover permanently lose ice? Losing freshwater ice is one of the earliest observed impacts of climate change (Magnuson et al., 2000; Walsh et al., 1998) with far-reaching consequences on the global freshwater supply (Woolway et al., 2020). Recent studies estimated that approximately 15,000 lakes around the Northern Hemisphere may be experiencing intermittent winter ice cover (Sharma et al., 2019) and that the frequency of extreme ice-free years is becoming increasingly common in recent decades (Filazzola et al., 2020). Lakes found in warmer regions, such as along the southern edge of the winter 0 °C isotherm or along continental coastlines, are sensitive to experiencing ice-free winters. In colder climates, deeper lakes were more likely to have experienced ice-free years (Sharma et al., 2019) as deeper lakes take longer to cool in the fall (Brown & Duguay, 2010; Jeffries et al., 2012) and air temperatures need to be below 0 °C for a longer time before deeper lakes freeze (Kirillin et al., 2012; Nõges & Nõges, 2014). Such dramatic loss in lake ice cover underscores a need to identify the most vulnerable lakes before irrevocable ice loss.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Permanent Loss of Lake Ice in the Northern Hemisphere Within the 21st Century

Sharma

Blagrave

Filazzola

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Warming spring water temperatures and increases in the length of the frost-free season can prolong annual growing seasons for aquatic organisms through warmer summers, longer and warmer autumns, and shorter ice-cover duration (Sharma et al, 2019, 2020). Temperature is an abiotic master factor for aquatic ecosystems because water temperature directly affects the physical and chemical properties of water, and phenology, reproductive events, metabolic rates, growth, and survival of aquatic organisms (Fry, 1964; Brett, 1979; Gillooly et al, 2002; Brown et al, 2004; Ohlberger et al, 2007; Busch et al, 2012; Cline et al, 2013; Little et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of warming temperatures on coregonine embryogenesis within and among species

Stewart

Mäkinen

Goulon

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The greatest response of lakes to climate change has been the increase in water temperatures on a global scale. The responses of many lake fishes to warming water temperatures are projected to be inadequate to counter the speed and magnitude of climate change, leaving some species vulnerable to decline and extinction. We experimentally evaluated the responses of embryos from a group of cold, stenothermic fishes (Salmonidae Coregoninae), within conspecifics across lake systems, between congeners within the same lake system, and among congeners across lake systems, to a thermal gradient using an incubation method that enabled global comparisons. Study groups included cisco (Coregonus artedi) from lakes Superior and Ontario (USA), and vendace (C. albula) and European whitefish (C. lavaretus) from Lake Southern Konnevesi (Finland). All species spawn in the fall and their embryos incubate over winter before hatching in spring. Embryos were incubated at water temperatures of 2.0, 4.5, 7.0, and 9.0C, and the responses to the incubation temperatures were quantified for life-history (i.e., embryo survival and incubation period) and morphological traits (i.e., length-at-hatch and yolk-sac volume). We found contrasting reaction norms to temperature in embryo survival and similar reaction norms to temperature for incubation period, length-at-hatch, and yolk-sac volume in conspecific and congeneric coregonines. For example, congeneric responses differed in embryonic survival in the same system, suggesting species differences in adaptability to warming winter temperatures. Differential levels of parental effects were found within and among study groups and traits suggesting population biodiversity may provide more flexibility for populations to cope with changing inter-annual environmental conditions. Our results suggest coregonines may have a wide range of embryo responses to changing winter conditions as a result of climate change.

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“…However, most of the passive microwave sensors have coarse spatial resolutions (typically ranging from 6.25 km to 25 km), hence limiting their effectiveness within heterogeneous landscapes [15]. Therefore, other remote sensing data types with higher spatial resolutions, including synthetic aperture radar (SAR) [7,22], optical imagery [8,9,23,24], and UAV [25], have also been used for mapping lake ice-off phenology.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These errors on the temporal dimension could undermine or even lead to the failure of the BUE identification. In this study, we used ERA5 Ta data for outlier removal because the lake ice melting is highly correlated to the warming process of air temperature [9,25,40]. Due to the spatial resolution mismatch, the bicubic interpolation algorithm [41] was used for resizing the original ERA5 Ta data to 20 m, and the 28-day average air temperature (Ta 28 ) was adopted as the metric to correct unreasonable ice or water presence [9].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The "max-seg-difference" algorithm Traditionally, the lake ice BUE is identified from satellite sensors by detecting a sharp change in surface reflectance or brightness temperature trajectory during the spring melting period [8,43]. This method is straightforward, but its usefulness could be affected by a number of factors, including sun illumination [8], ice thickness [25], and microwave dielectric properties [22]. As a consequence, additional intervention from the user is usually needed, hampering the application of BUE mapping over large areas.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Fine-Resolution Mapping of Pan-Arctic Lake Ice-Off Phenology Based on Dense Sentinel-2 Time Series Data

et al. 2021

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The timing of lake ice-off regulates biotic and abiotic processes in Arctic ecosystems. Due to the coarse spatial and temporal resolution of available satellite data, previous studies mainly focused on lake-scale investigations of melting/freezing, hindering the detection of subtle patterns within heterogeneous landscapes. To fill this knowledge gap, we developed a new approach for fine-resolution mapping of Pan-Arctic lake ice-off phenology. Using the Scene Classification Layer data derived from dense Sentinel-2 time series images, we estimated the pixel-by-pixel ice break-up end date information by seeking the transition time point when the pixel is completely free of ice. Applying this approach on the Google Earth Engine platform, we mapped the spatial distribution of the break-up end date for 45,532 lakes across the entire Arctic (except for Greenland) for the year 2019. The evaluation results suggested that our estimations matched well with both in situ measurements and an existing lake ice phenology product. Based on the generated map, we estimated that the average break-up end time of Pan-Arctic lakes is 172 ± 13.4 (measured in day of year) for the year 2019. The mapped lake ice-off phenology exhibits a latitudinal gradient, with a linear slope of 1.02 days per degree from 55°N onward. We also demonstrated the importance of lake and landscape characteristics in affecting spring lake ice melting. The proposed approach offers new possibilities for monitoring the seasonal Arctic lake ice freeze–thaw cycle, benefiting the ongoing efforts of combating and adapting to climate change.

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Integrating Perspectives to Understand Lake Ice Dynamics in a Changing World

Cited by 53 publications

References 160 publications

Forecasting the Permanent Loss of Lake Ice in the Northern Hemisphere Within the 21st Century

Forecasting the Permanent Loss of Lake Ice in the Northern Hemisphere Within the 21st Century

Influence of warming temperatures on coregonine embryogenesis within and among species

Fine-Resolution Mapping of Pan-Arctic Lake Ice-Off Phenology Based on Dense Sentinel-2 Time Series Data

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