Integrating multiple modelling approaches to predict the potential impacts of climate change on species’ distributions in contrasting regions: comparison and implications for policy

Barrio, Gabriel del; Harrison, Paula A.; Berry, Pam; Butt, Nathalie; Sanjuán, María Eugenia González; Pearson, Richard G.; Dawson, Terence P.

doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2005.11.005

Cited by 68 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 43 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Such analyses can be extended to more complex modelling of meta-population behaviour and habitat change (Opdam & Wascher 2004). Local effects of climate change on species distribution can be explored by integrating different models in a scale-dependant hierarchical framework, linking bioclimate niche models to land use and species dispersal models (Del Barrio et al 2006). Similar approaches could be developed by linking shifting strata with dispersal models (Verboom et al 2007).…”

Section: Ens Stratummentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similar approaches could be developed by linking shifting strata with dispersal models (Verboom et al 2007). Such regional studies could be of interest to regional or national governments or non-governmental organizations (Del Barrio et al 2006). Alternatively, by selecting representative sites across Europe, impacts on European habitats could be evaluated, or sample regions could be linked to socioeconomic scenarios describing different changes in demand (see Rounsevell et al 2006).…”

Section: Ens Stratummentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, by combining the shifting strata with ancillary data, more complex analyses are possible, as demonstrated in this paper for four sample regions. In this way, the shifts in the distribution of strata can be used in the development of regional land-use change scenarios and to assess combined impacts of climate and land-use change on species dispersal (see del Barrio et al 2006), as proposed by Opdam and Wascher (2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Projected environmental shifts under climate change: European trends and regional impacts

et al. 2008

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

SUMMARYPotential impacts of climate change on ecosystems and the environment are generally assessed by summarizing climate change scenarios for broad regions (for example countries), or by specific modelling exercises. This paper presents an alternative approach for summarizing climate change impacts on the European environment, by linking climate change scenarios to recognized environmental divisions. Sixteen climate scenarios from four general circulation models were therefore linked to 84 statistically derived strata sharing common environmental features. In this way, the future distribution of the strata, as defined by their climate characteristics, were quantified and mapped. The results show that Europe is likely to experience major environmental shifts, with pronounced regional variations. As expected, environmental strata shift northwards. In particular the southern Mediterranean strata are projected to expand, whereas Atlantic environments remain much more stable. Alpine and Mediterranean mountain environments decline dramatically. However, the Scandinavian zones show no consistent pattern of change. More detailed analysis of four sample regions shows that the impacts of the projected shifts will largely depend on regional characteristics. Environmental conservation, regional assessments and scenario development could therefore be facilitated by combining relevant regional datasets (for example for vegetation, land cover and species distribution) with the shifting environmental strata.

show abstract

Section: Ens Stratummentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Ens Stratummentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Projected environmental shifts under climate change: European trends and regional impacts

et al. 2008

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Nevertheless, of the 65 BEM studies conducted since 1994 (62 of which have been since 2000), only 14 (21.5%) use projections from more than one GCM, and only 10 (15.4%) of these compare the results using multiple GCMs in conjunction with multiple climate change scenarios. A few studies (Thuiller, 2004;del Barrio et al, 2006;Harrison et al, 2006) have been based on more than one GCM and one scenario, but did not use a factorial design. In this paper, we present bioclimatic envelope predictions for C. nasturtii based on two different GCMs and two different SRES scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Will climate change be beneficial or detrimental to the invasive swede midge in North America? Contrasting predictions using climate projections from different general circulation models

Mika

Weiss

Olfert

et al. 2008

Global Change Biology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change may dramatically affect the distribution and abundance of organisms. With the world's population size expected to increase significantly during the next 100 years, we need to know how climate change might impact our food production systems. In particular, we need estimates of how future climate might alter the distribution of agricultural pests. We used the climate projections from two general circulation models (GCMs) of global climate, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis GCM (CGCM2) and the Hadley Centre model (HadCM3), for the A2 and B2 scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios in conjunction with a previously published bioclimatic envelope model (BEM) to predict the potential changes in distribution and abundance of the swede midge, Contarinia nasturtii, in North America. The BEM in conjunction with either GCM predicted that C. nasturtii would spread from its current initial invasion in southern Ontario and northwestern New York State into the Canadian prairies, northern Canada, and midwestern United States, but the magnitude of risk depended strongly on the GCM and the scenario used. When the CGCM2 projections were used, the BEM predicted an extensive shift in the location of the midges' climatic envelope through most of Ontario, Quebec, and the maritime and prairie provinces by the 2080s. In the United States, C. nasturtii was predicted to spread to all the Great Lake states, into midwestern states as far south as Colorado, and west into Washington State. When the HadCM3 was applied, southern Ontario, Saskatchewan, and Washington State were not as favourable for C. nasturtii by the 2080s. Indeed, when used with the HadCM3 climate projections, the BEM predicted the virtual disappearance of 'very favourable' regions for C. nasturtii. The CGCM2 projections generally caused the BEM to predict a small increase in the mean number of midge generations throughout the course of the century, whereas, the HadCM3 projections resulted in roughly the same mean number of generations but decreased variance. Predictions of the likely potential of C. nasturtii spatial spread are thus strongly dependent on the source of climate projections. This study illustrates the importance of using multiple GCMs in combination with multiple scenarios when studying the potential for spatial spread of an organism in response to climate change.

show abstract

“…The findings highlight the potential resilience that species may exhibit to climate change when biotic and abiotic factors are considered. As a result, model outcomes of species response to climate at larger spatial scales may not be representative of species response at smaller spatial scales and vice versa (Bugmann et al 2000, Barrio et al 2006. In this study, disturbance drove change which affected the resilience of the existing communities following fire; particularly on dry sites and to a lesser extent on mesic sites.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 93%

The influence of climate change, site type, and disturbance on stand dynamics in northwest British Columbia, Canada

et al. 2012

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Stand and disturbance dynamics are key processes that need to be assessed along with climate‐species interactions if we are to better understand the impacts of climate change on species. In this study we investigated the biotic interactions (competition) between species, the influence of disturbance type, and changes in resource availability (moisture and light) on the response of six tree species to climate change in the northwest region of central British Columbia, Canada. Two ecological models were parameterized, linked together and coupled to climate change scenarios to explore the interactions between: (1) the response of species in the regeneration phase and (2) the role of disturbance, resource availability and competition on determining stand composition and productivity. Climate change was found to reduce soil moisture availability which resulted in a decline in regeneration potential for all species on dry sites and negative to neutral responses on sites with higher water availability. Following fire, stand dynamics and composition were modeled to undergo significant changes under the 2080s climate compared to current climate conditions on dry and mesic sites. Changes in stand dynamics under climate change were marginal following bark beetle disturbances. While significant changes to stand dynamics were found on dry sites, the presented results suggest that the sites with the highest moisture availability maintain the same general stand dynamics and composition following disturbances under climate change. This study highlights the need to consider species response to climate change in interaction with existing stand conditions, disturbance type, competition, resource availability, not just temperature and precipitation.

show abstract

Integrating multiple modelling approaches to predict the potential impacts of climate change on species’ distributions in contrasting regions: comparison and implications for policy

Cited by 68 publications

References 43 publications

Projected environmental shifts under climate change: European trends and regional impacts

Projected environmental shifts under climate change: European trends and regional impacts

Will climate change be beneficial or detrimental to the invasive swede midge in North America? Contrasting predictions using climate projections from different general circulation models

The influence of climate change, site type, and disturbance on stand dynamics in northwest British Columbia, Canada

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About