The influence of climate change, site type, and disturbance on stand dynamics in northwest British Columbia, Canada

Nitschke, Craig R.; Amoroso, Mariano M.; Coates, K. David; Astrup, Rasmus

doi:10.1890/es11-00282.1

Cited by 20 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…Based on the rank and percentile test, 10 historical years of climate data were selected for each ecoregion and used as the historical climate scenarios in the analysis. The 10 years of data represent the 90th, 75th, 50th, 25th, and 10th percentiles for both observed annual precipitation and mean annual temperature (Nitschke et al, 2012). A direct adjustment approach was used to create climate change scenarios from the selected historical climate data and global climate model (GCM) predictions for the study region (Nitschke et al, 2012).…”

Section: Growth and Reproductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The 10 years of data represent the 90th, 75th, 50th, 25th, and 10th percentiles for both observed annual precipitation and mean annual temperature (Nitschke et al, 2012). A direct adjustment approach was used to create climate change scenarios from the selected historical climate data and global climate model (GCM) predictions for the study region (Nitschke et al, 2012). Monthly outputs from five GCMs were obtained from the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC, 2012).…”

Section: Growth and Reproductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Copper-Pine Creek valley in north-western BC provides an exemplary landscape because it includes a variety of forest ecosystems with naturally varying climate envelopes, tree species composition, management activities, and natural disturbance rates within a relatively small area of under 750 km 2 . Furthermore, a recent study in a neighbouring area by Nitschke et al (2012) demonstrated stand-level responses to climate change as an interaction of species response, existing stand conditions, disturbance type, competition, and resource availability. To achieve our purpose, we had the following objectives: (1) project species productivity in different site types using downscaled circulation model projections and a mechanistic tree species productivity model; (2) parameterise a new extension of the LANDIS-II landscape model that estimates ecosystem carbon dynamics;…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Carbon sequestration in managed temperate coniferous forests under climate change

Dymond

Beukema²,

Nitschke

et al. 2016

Biogeosciences

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Abstract. Management of temperate forests has the potential to increase carbon sinks and mitigate climate change. However, those opportunities may be confounded by negative climate change impacts. We therefore need a better understanding of climate change alterations to temperate forest carbon dynamics before developing mitigation strategies. The purpose of this project was to investigate the interactions of species composition, fire, management, and climate change in the Copper–Pine Creek valley, a temperate coniferous forest with a wide range of growing conditions. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II modelling framework including the new Forest Carbon Succession extension to simulate forest ecosystems under four different productivity scenarios, with and without climate change effects, until 2050. Significantly, the new extension allowed us to calculate the net sector productivity, a carbon accounting metric that integrates aboveground and belowground carbon dynamics, disturbances, and the eventual fate of forest products. The model output was validated against literature values. The results implied that the species optimum growing conditions relative to current and future conditions strongly influenced future carbon dynamics. Warmer growing conditions led to increased carbon sinks and storage in the colder and wetter ecoregions but not necessarily in the others. Climate change impacts varied among species and site conditions, and this indicates that both of these components need to be taken into account when considering climate change mitigation activities and adaptive management. The introduction of a new carbon indicator, net sector productivity, promises to be useful in assessing management effectiveness and mitigation activities.

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Section: Growth and Reproductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Growth and Reproductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Carbon sequestration in managed temperate coniferous forests under climate change

Dymond

Beukema²,

Nitschke

et al. 2016

Biogeosciences

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“…The TACA-GEM (Mok et al, [35]) is a modified version of TACA [32][33][34] was used to model the species-specific germination and establishment responses for the assessment of species resiliency to climate change. The model analyses the influence of projected climate change on the ability of a tree species to regenerate and establish.…”

Section: Mechanistic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Phenological models are widely used to study the impact of climate change on natural and managed ecosystems [31]. The Tree and Climate Assessment (TACA, [32][33][34]) and the Tree and Climate Assessment-Germination and Establishment Module (TACA-GEM [35]) mechanistic models have been largely used to assess the vulnerability of plant species to climate change, modeling the regeneration response. This model primarily utilizes species phenological parameters like growing degree days (GDD), base temperature, chilling requirement, frost, and drought to show the shift in species germination timing under projected climate conditions, that helps in the identification of vulnerable species [35,36].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Germination Phenological Response Identifies Flora Risk to Climate Change

Chhetri

Rawal

2017

Climate

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Climate change is prevalent across the world and can have large influence on plant regeneration, recruitment, survival and diversity. Regeneration and recruitment are the key phases in the plant life cycle and these two aspects are related to survival, adaptation and distribution of species. This study thus aims to explore the effect of projected climate change on germination and establishment response of some timber tree species from the tropical/subtropical broad leaf forests of Nepal. Germination experiments were carried out under three different temperature regimes (20, 25 and 30 • C) and germination parameters identified from the experimental component were calibrated in the mechanistic model Tree and Climate Assessment-Germination and Establishment Module (TACA-GEM) that helped in identifying species vulnerability to climate change. The model outcome under varied climatic conditions helped in determining the species risk to projected climatic conditions. The model demonstrates that the studied species were able to increase germination under the projected climate change however, establishment consistently failed for most of the species across the hot tropical sites. This finding indicates that spatial vulnerability may limit recruitment in the future. The species-specific responses suggest that, in general, all three species (Alnus nepalensis, Adina cordifolia, and Bombax ceiba) exhibited enhanced germination and establishment in moderately warm and colder sites, indicating that these species may more likely shift their range towards the north in future. Thus, the general species response exhibited in this study may aid in regional climate change adaptation planning in the sector of forest conservation and management.

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Climate change mitigation through adaptation: the effectiveness of forest diversification by novel tree planting regimes

2017

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Climate change is projected to have negative implications for forest ecosystems and their dependent communities and industries. Adaptation studies of forestry practices have focused on maintaining the provisioning of ecosystem services; however, those practices may have implications for climate change mitigation as well by increasing biological sinks or reducing emissions. Assessments of the effectiveness of adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change are therefore needed; however, they have not been done for the world's northern coniferous forests. Diversifying the forest by planting tree species more likely suited to a future climate is a potential adaptation strategy to increase resilience. The efficacy of this strategy to reduce the risks of climate change is uncertain, and other ecosystem services provided by the forest are also likely to be affected. We used a spatially explicit forest landscape modeling framework (LANDIS‐II) to simulate the effects of planting a range of native tree species in colder areas than where they are currently planted in a managed temperate coniferous forest landscape in British Columbia, Canada. We investigated impacts on carbon pools, fluxes, tree species diversity, and harvest levels under different climate scenarios for 100 yr (2015–2115) and found that the capacity of our forest landscape to sequester carbon would largely depend on the precipitation rates in the future, rather than on temperature. We further found that, irrespective of the climate prediction model, current planting standards led to relatively low levels of resilience as indicated by carbon fluxes and stocks, net primary productivity (NPP), and species diversity. In contrast, planting a mix of alternative tree species was generally superior in increasing the resilience indicators: carbon stocks and fluxes, NPP, and tree species diversity, but not harvest rates. The second best novel planting regime involved adding Pinus contorta to the stocking standard in three ecoregions; however, that species is susceptible to a high number of insects and pathogens. We conclude that although the capacity of temperate coniferous forest landscapes to sequester carbon in the future is largely dependent on the precipitation regime, negative effects may be counteracted to some extent by increasing resilience through tree species diversity in forests.

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The influence of climate change, site type, and disturbance on stand dynamics in northwest British Columbia, Canada

Cited by 20 publications

References 68 publications

Carbon sequestration in managed temperate coniferous forests under climate change

Carbon sequestration in managed temperate coniferous forests under climate change

Germination Phenological Response Identifies Flora Risk to Climate Change

Climate change mitigation through adaptation: the effectiveness of forest diversification by novel tree planting regimes

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