Integrating multicriteria decision analysis and scenario planning—Review and extension

Abstract

Scenario planning and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are two key management science tools used in strategic planning. In this paper, we explore the integration of these two approaches in a coherent manner, recognizing that each adds value to the implementation of the other. Various approaches that have been adopted for such integration are reviewed, with a primary focus on the process of constructing preferences both within and between scenarios. Biases that may be introduced by inappropriate assumptions during such processes are identified, and used to motivate a framework for integrating MCDA and scenario thinking, based on applying MCDA concepts across a range of "metacriteria" (combinations of scearios and primary criteria). Within this framework, preferences according to each primary criterion can be expressed in the context of different scenarios. The paper concludes with a hypothetical but non-trivial example of agricultural policy planning in a developing country.

Complexity and intransitivity in technological development

“…The science of complexity is, on the contrary, is very much concerned with the fact that uncertainties are inherently present in complex systems (French, 2013 It should be noted that the task of controlling complex environments is not exclusive to SE: economists, directors, and politicians may have to deal with systems that are extremely complex. SE, however, has a clearly defined engineering goal or target.…”

The Use of a Decision Support System for Sustainable Urbanization and Thermal Comfort in Adaptation to Climate Change Actions—The Case of the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone (Poland)

“…Scenario methods are part of the concept of strategic management and belong to so-called macro-analysis groups [67]. Scenario analyses take into account the subject and purpose of the scenario, its space-time scale or the type of indicators used to assess it [68,69]. The derivation of scenarios of urban development was based on policy implementations that were developed from spatial planning documents.…”

Aggregation of Priorities in Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA): Connecting Decision Spaces in the Cognitive Space

“…The idea of scenario has been discussed for over 40 years (see [15] for some early references) in the context of strategic decision making in many areas of applications including the MCDA (see [16] and [17] and references therein). Huss [15] called a scenario "a narrative description of a consistent set of factors that define in a probabilistic sense alternative sets of future business conditions" and discussed its application to forecasting.…”