The Use of a Decision Support System for Sustainable Urbanization and Thermal Comfort in Adaptation to Climate Change Actions—The Case of the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone (Poland)

Abstract

Abstract:The increasing level of antropopression has a negative impact on environmental resources and has reached the level of our planetary boundaries. One limitation is land use change caused by urbanization. Global policies prove the need to undertake action in order to develop more sustainable human settlements, which would be adapted better to potential future climate change effects. Among such changes are the increase of average temperatures and extreme events like heat waves. Those changes are more severe in urban areas due to land use development, and result in the urban heat island effect (UHI), which has a negative impact on the thermal comfort of citizens. The paper presents a decision support system that can be used for the assessment of areas to the potential exposure to the UHI effect. The system integrates scenario analysis, land use modelling in cellular automata (Metronamica), and an indicator-based assessment in a geographic information system (ArcGIS). The applicability of the model is illustrated through developing scenarios for the future land use allocation of the Wrocław Larger Urban Zone (Poland). The results of the calculations show which scenario is the least vulnerable to UHI effects. Moreover, for each scenario, cores of urban areas were identified, in which certain urban design patterns accounting for adaptation to climate change could be implemented. The study provides a guideline for local authorities on where to focus actions in order to create more sustainable urban structures and to better adapt to climate change and environmental extremes.

Residuals in the modelling of pollution concentration depending on meteorological conditions and traffic flow, employing decision trees

“…The decision trees-based approach described in this paper, fits to the concept of decision support systems. Such systems are commonly used in a variety of urban management domains, including energy planning [33], climate control [34] and water management [35]. The development of decision support systems also leads to the advancement of technologies, which are helpful in processing increasing large amounts of data [36].…”

Climatic Changes and Their Relation to Weather Types in a Transboundary Mountainous Region in Central Europe

“…With a higher base line of temperature averages, the number, frequency and intensity of high temperature extremes increase globally, while the number, frequency and intensity of low temperature extremes decline [4][5][6]. This leads to significant impacts on the natural and built environment, due to a decreasing number of frost days in the mountains [73], increasing temperatures of rivers [24,25], and heat periods in cities [26,[74][75][76][77].…”

“…That shift is accompanied by an increase in heat waves in the study region (as expressed by the WSDI). As such, the problem is not only the general warming causing the decrease in cold conditions, but particularly the related heating of urban areas, causing Urban Heat Islands [26,[74][75][76][77].…”

The Green Infrastructure in Cities as A Tool for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: Slovakian and Polish Experiences

“…Wrocław is known as a strongly transforming city, with a very large residential and suburban area [58]. Suburbanization could be listed among the other problems the city is facing, such as the heat island [59] effect or air pollution [60].…”