Integrating global and regional analyses of the effects of climate change: A case study of land use in England and Wales

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to exemplify a means by which an integrated assessment can be made of global and regional effects on land use of climate change. This is achieved by use of data on the effects of climate change on world food prices as inputs to a regional land use allocation model.Data on world prices are drawn from a recent global study of climate change and crop yields. In a case study of England and Wales a land allocation model is used to infer changes of land use that are the product of the integrated effect of climate-induced global price changes and climate-related changes of yield in England and Wales. This combination of changed prices and yield potential is used to calculate the land use providing the highest returns for each of 155,235 1 km 2 cells of land in England and Wales for a future assumed for the year 2060 (without climate change) and then for that same environment with climate change. The difference between these two is then treated as an estimated effect resulting from climate change.

A comparison of different biogeographical classifications of Europe, Great Britain and Spain

“…When only British data were used these zones disappeared and became the tail of the distribution in the classes from the south of England (Figures 2b, 2d). This problem had previously been noted by other workers who were looking at the impacts of climate change (Parry et al, 1996). The imposition of the European union boundaries on the European classi®cation produced a similar problem with a region in southern Germany and Poland being placed with its nearest analogue, the Alps.…”

Temperature Mediated Moose Survival in Northeastern Minnesota

“…For instance, results of the Basic Linked System (BLS), the model used by , can be used as "boundary conditions" to a model of the national food market (e.g., world market prices, demand and supply on import and export markets). This was done for England and Wales by Parry et al (1996), for Egypt by Strzepek et al (1994Strzepek et al ( , 1995Strzepek et al ( , 1996Yates and Strzepek, 1996), and for India by Kumar and Parikh (1997). 3 The one exception is the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model, or AIM (Morita et al, 1997), which is described in Section 4.4.5.…”

“…An example is the work by Parry et al (1996). Strzepek et al (1994Strzepek et al ( , 1996Yates and Strzepek, 1996).…”

A Regional, Multi-Sectoral And Integrated Assessment Of The Impacts Of Climate And Socio-Economic Change In The Uk

“…For example, some studies have attempted to model the price change feedback that results from agricultural-land use change using global scenarios and a model of macro (global) economics that simulates the changes that occur in every other region of the world (e.g. Parry et al, 1996;Alcamo et al, 1996;Conway et al, 1996). The limitation of these studies, however, is that the representation of global-scale processes is not always adequate (due to the complexity and variety of the world) and there is a loss of regional specification (Toth, 2003) and detail that is the aim of a 'regional study' (Easterling, 1997) such as RegIS.…”