Integrating Future Land Use Scenarios to Evaluate the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Landscape Ecological Security

Lu, Yi; Wang, Xiangrong; Xie, Yujing; Li, Kun; Xu, Yiyang

doi:10.3390/su8121242

Cited by 27 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 71 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The probabilities of transition for the land uses were different due to the costs and other specific conditions. The land use conversion elasticity was defined by the relative elasticity for change (ELAS) based on previous literature [41,42] and observed behavior in the recent past in the simulation models. The values of relative elasticity ranges from 0 to 1, which was based on the actual condition of the study area and the results of previous research.…”

Section: Model Configurationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The barren land with a flatter terrain and better hydrological conditions was more easily transformed into ecological land. Ecological qualities are heterogeneous among different regions [42], so reasonable policies could be made according to regional variation of the ecological land dynamics.…”

Section: Characteristics Of Each Scenario Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The agent-based models performed well in simulating social processes by individual agents; however, most of these models can only predict simplified land uses due to the large number of interacting agents that need to be considered [40]. The combination of different models has been recently applied [34,41,42] and can make use of the specific strengths and overcome the weaknesses.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Scenarios Simulation of Spatio-Temporal Land Use Changes for Exploring Sustainable Management Strategies

Wang

Cai

et al. 2018

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Land use and land cover change have received considerable attention from global researchers in recent decades. The conflicts between different development strategies for land uses have become a problem that urgently needs to be solved, especially in those regions with a fragile ecological environment. The development of scenario simulations is essential in order to highlight possible alternative pathways for the future under the backgrounds of urbanization, economic growth and ecological protection. This study simulated land use changes for Tekes in 2020 with the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) model under a 'business as usual' scenario, cropland protection scenario, ecological security scenario, and artificial modification scenario. The results indicated that the spatial patterns of the land use types were explained well by the environment variables, and the selected models had a satisfactory accuracy in this study. The requirements and the patterns were quite different owing to the variation of the major objectives of the four scenarios. In addition to the constraint rules of the land use transformation, the hot point for land use change was its spatial coherency. Areas near to an existing land use type were more likely to transform to that type than those farther away. The increased cropland and urban land were mainly located around the current cropland and urban land while forests and grassland were more likely to occur in places with flat terrain and good hydrological conditions. The results could contribute to better insight into the relationships between land use changes and their driving factors and provide a scientific basis for regional management strategies and sustainable land use development.

show abstract

Section: Model Configurationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Characteristics Of Each Scenario Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Scenarios Simulation of Spatio-Temporal Land Use Changes for Exploring Sustainable Management Strategies

Wang

Cai

et al. 2018

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The LTM, although thought to be one of the most accurate models due to its ANN capabilities, has not been used to assess urban growth regarding future flood risk and SLR. Lu et al (2016) evaluated landscape ecological security using different spatial scenarios in Huangshan City, China [6]. Wu et al (2015) tested hydrologic impacts from potential land changes with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool in the Heihe River Basin, China [7].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Understanding historic land development processes to better predict future circumstances helps support urban planning for potential future flood risk mitigation. Over the past few decades, LCM has been used to significantly contribute to addressing the challenges of urbanization and estimating its potential impacts [6–8]. However, few studies have integrated urbanization research with both climate change and flood risk [9,10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Preparedness: Comparing Future Urban Growth and Flood Risk in Amsterdam and Houston

Kim

Newman

2019

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Rising sea levels and coastal population growth will increase flood risk of more people and assets if land use changes are not planned adequately. This research examines the efficacy of flood protection systems and land use planning by comparing Amsterdam in the Netherlands (renown for resilience planning methods), with the city of Houston, Texas in the US (seeking ways of increasing resilience due to extreme recent flooding). It assesses flood risk of future urban growth in lieu of sea level rise using the Land Transformation Model, a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based Artificial Neural Network (ANN) land use prediction tool. Findings show that Houston has currently developed much more urban area within high-risk flood-prone zones compared to Amsterdam. When comparing predicted urban areas under risk, flood-prone future urban areas in Amsterdam are also relatively smaller than Houston. Finally, the increased floodplain when accounting for sea level rise will impact existing and future urban areas in Houston, but do not increase risk significantly in Amsterdam. The results suggest that the protective infrastructure used in the Netherlands has protected its future urban growth from sea level rise more adequately than has Houston.

show abstract

Analysis of oasis land ecological security and influencing factors in arid areas

Wang

Chang

et al. 2023

Land Degrad Dev

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Arid oasis areas are typical ecologically fragile areas, and Land ecological security (LES) reflects the relationship between oasis land use and socio‐economics. At present, the evaluation of oasis LES is still in the exploration stage, and there is a lack of dynamic evaluation of LES from a spatial and temporal perspective, and the interaction between influencing factors is not considered, which often affects the reliability of LES evaluation results and the optimization of land scenarios. This study analyzes the dynamic changes in land use in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) oasis from 1990 to 2020 and constructs a pressure‐state‐response (PSR) model to assess the spatial and temporal patterns of the LES. Then, the spatial correlation and spatial divergence of the LES were explored using the Moran index. Finally, the geographical detector analysis was used to reveal the drivers of the spatiotemporal divergence of LES patterns in the TRB oasis and the interaction effects of the influencing factors. The results reveal that there is significant spatial and temporal variability in the LES level of TRB oases, with the eastern region continuing to deteriorate while the western region continues to improve. Between 1990 and 2020, the largest increase in TRB oases was 24,089.52 km2 of cultivated land and the largest decrease was 47,117.03 km2 of grassland. Also, there are interactions between the variables. The greatest associations between the three variables‐the forest coverage raste, the proportion of the tertiary industry, and rural per capita net income‐all reached over 0.88. This study evaluates the LES and analyzes the affecting factors, which contribute to the development of refined land optimization countermeasures and offers a foundation for the realization of sustainable land use in oases and the establishment of oasis ecological civilization.

show abstract

Integrating Future Land Use Scenarios to Evaluate the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Landscape Ecological Security

Cited by 27 publications

References 71 publications

Scenarios Simulation of Spatio-Temporal Land Use Changes for Exploring Sustainable Management Strategies

Scenarios Simulation of Spatio-Temporal Land Use Changes for Exploring Sustainable Management Strategies

Climate Change Preparedness: Comparing Future Urban Growth and Flood Risk in Amsterdam and Houston

Analysis of oasis land ecological security and influencing factors in arid areas

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About