Climate Change Preparedness: Comparing Future Urban Growth and Flood Risk in Amsterdam and Houston

Kim, You Jung; Newman, Galen

doi:10.3390/su11041048

Cited by 37 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 120 publications

(117 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Each measure supports the accuracy of the predictions (PCM: 52%, κ: 41%, OA: 82% and AUC: 71%) at an acceptable level. We delineate future flood risk by combining 100-year floodplain zones with 3 and 6 ft (0.9 and 1.8 m) SLR conditions utilizing a bathtub approach (Marcy et al 2011), representing extreme cases targeting years 2050 and 2100 (see Kim and Newman 2019 for the prediction model and SLR details). To identify eligible vacant properties in the most extreme SLR condition, we select properties that are within the 6 ft (1.8 m) SLR floodplains for further analysis.…”

Section: Predicting Future Development and Slr Floodplainsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Buy them out before they are built: evaluating the proactive acquisition of vacant land in flood-prone areas

et al. 2021

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Summary Rising flood damages have prompted local communities to implement buyout and property acquisition programmes to eliminate repetitive losses for at-risk properties. However, buyouts are often costly to implement and are reactionary solutions to flooding. This study quantifies the benefits of acquiring vacant private properties in flood-prone areas rather than acquiring such properties after they are built up. Using a geodesign framework that integrates concepts and analytical approaches derived from geographical, spatial and statistical-based disciplines, we analyse vacant properties with high development potential that intersect current and future floodplain areas in Houston (TX, USA). We use geospatial proximity analysis to select candidate properties, land-use prediction modelling to estimate future development and sea-level rise and benefit–cost analysis to assess the economic viability of buyouts. The results indicate that cumulative avoided flood losses exceed the cost of vacant land acquisition by a factor of nearly two to one, and up to a factor of ten to one in selected areas. This study emphasizes the benefits of proactive property buyouts that focus on acquiring parcels before they are built up, while also avoiding the social and institutional problems associated with traditional buyout programmes.

show abstract

Section: Predicting Future Development and Slr Floodplainsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Buy them out before they are built: evaluating the proactive acquisition of vacant land in flood-prone areas

et al. 2021

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Through scenario-based approaches, LULC modeling helps inform planners of the potential environmental, social, and economic impacts of different land use policies and the possible implications of future urban growth/land use changes. The most widely used LULC models are SLEUTH, Cellular Automata Model, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) such as the Land Transformation Model (LTM), Agent-based Model, Markov, and CLUE-S (Kim & Newman, 2019;Wu et al, 2012).…”

Section: Land Use/land Cover Modeling In Shrinking Citiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The projected impacts of smart decline on urban runoff contamination levels

Zhu

Newman

2021

Comput.Urban Sci.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

There has been mounting interest about how the repurposing of vacant land (VL) through green infrastructure (the most common smart decline strategy) can reduce stormwater runoff and improve runoff quality, especially in legacy cities characterized by excessive industrial land uses and VL amounts. This research examines the long-term impacts of smart decline on both stormwater amounts and pollutants loads through integrating land use prediction models with green infrastructure performance models. Using the City of St. Louis, Missouri, USA as the study area, we simulate 2025 land use change using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE-S) and Markov Chain urban land use prediction models and assess these change’s probable impacts on urban contamination levels under different smart decline scenarios using the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA) performance model. The four different scenarios are: (1) a baseline scenario, (2) a 10% vacant land re-greening (VLRG) scenario, (3) a 20% VLRG scenario, and (4) a 30% VLRG scenario. The results of this study illustrate that smart decline VLRG strategies can have both direct and indirect impacts on urban stormwater runoff and their inherent contamination levels. Direct impacts on urban contamination include the reduction of stormwater runoff and non-point source (NPS) pollutants. In the 30% VLRG scenario, the annual runoff volume decreases by 11%, both physical, chemical, and bacterial pollutants are reduced by an average of 19%, compared to the baseline scenario. Indirect impacts include reduction of the possibility of illegal dumping on VL through mitigation and prevention of future vacancies.

show abstract

“…The impacts of all types of floods are being intensified in Houston by urbanization, subsidence, and extreme rainfall [13][14][15]. Relatedly, sea level rise will increase the vulnerability of Texas Gulf Coast communities to hazards such as flooding associated with sea-level rise and increasing storm surge [16].…”

Section: Engaged Neighborhood Samplingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Citizen Science-Informed Community Master Planning: Land Use and Built Environment Changes to Increase Flood Resilience and Decrease Contaminant Exposure

Newman

Shi

Yao

et al. 2020

IJERPH

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Communities adjacent to concentrated areas of industrial land use (CAILU) are exposed to elevated levels of pollutants during flood disasters. Many CAILU are also characterized by insufficient infrastructure, poor environmental quality, and socially vulnerable populations. Manchester, TX is a marginalized CAILU neighborhood proximate to several petrochemical industrial sites that is prone to frequent flooding. Pollutants from stormwater runoff discharge from industrial land uses into residential areas have created increased toxicant exposures. Working with local organizations, centers/institutes, stakeholders, and residents, public health researchers sampled air, water, indoor dust, and outdoor soil while researchers from landscape architecture and urban planning applied these findings to develop a community-scaled master plan. The plan utilizes land use and built environment changes to increase flood resiliency and decrease exposure to contaminants. Using a combination of models to assess the performance, costs, and benefits of green infrastructure and pollutant load impacts, the master plan is projected to capture 147,456 cubic feet of runoff, and create $331,400 of annual green benefits by reducing air pollution and energy use, providing pollution treatment, increase carbon dioxide sequestration, and improve groundwater replenishment. Simultaneously, there is a 41% decrease across all analyzed pollutants, reducing exposure to and transferal of toxic materials.

show abstract

Climate Change Preparedness: Comparing Future Urban Growth and Flood Risk in Amsterdam and Houston

Cited by 37 publications

References 120 publications

Buy them out before they are built: evaluating the proactive acquisition of vacant land in flood-prone areas

Buy them out before they are built: evaluating the proactive acquisition of vacant land in flood-prone areas

The projected impacts of smart decline on urban runoff contamination levels

Citizen Science-Informed Community Master Planning: Land Use and Built Environment Changes to Increase Flood Resilience and Decrease Contaminant Exposure

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About