Integrating ecophysiological models into species distribution projections of European reptile range shifts in response to climate change

Ceia-Hasse, Ana; Sinervo, Barry; Vicente, Luı́s; Pereira, Henrique M.

doi:10.1111/j.1600-0587.2013.00600.x

Cited by 62 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 47 publications

(100 reference statements)

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“…The combination of both distribution and climatic tolerance estimates is more likely than strictly correlative models to approximate a species’ fundamental niche, thereby improving projections of suitable habitat under novel combinations of climatic conditions [48]. A combined approach also allows the modeler to identify areas of higher confidence within the projection (e.g., where the models overlap) and areas where the predictor variables failed to capture the factors limiting the species’ distribution (e.g., where models differ [49,50]). For example, species-specific temperature tolerance data were combined with distribution data to model macroalgae survival [51] and the geographic responses of UK butterflies to climate change [52].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Plant Distribution Data Show Broader Climatic Limits than Expert-Based Climatic Tolerance Estimates

Curtis

Bradley

2016

PLoS ONE

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BackgroundAlthough increasingly sophisticated environmental measures are being applied to species distributions models, the focus remains on using climatic data to provide estimates of habitat suitability. Climatic tolerance estimates based on expert knowledge are available for a wide range of plants via the USDA PLANTS database. We aim to test how climatic tolerance inferred from plant distribution records relates to tolerance estimated by experts. Further, we use this information to identify circumstances when species distributions are more likely to approximate climatic tolerance.MethodsWe compiled expert knowledge estimates of minimum and maximum precipitation and minimum temperature tolerance for over 1800 conservation plant species from the ‘plant characteristics’ information in the USDA PLANTS database. We derived climatic tolerance from distribution data downloaded from the Global Biodiversity and Information Facility (GBIF) and corresponding climate from WorldClim. We compared expert-derived climatic tolerance to empirical estimates to find the difference between their inferred climate niches (ΔCN), and tested whether ΔCN was influenced by growth form or range size.ResultsClimate niches calculated from distribution data were significantly broader than expert-based tolerance estimates (Mann-Whitney p values << 0.001). The average plant could tolerate 24 mm lower minimum precipitation, 14 mm higher maximum precipitation, and 7° C lower minimum temperatures based on distribution data relative to expert-based tolerance estimates. Species with larger ranges had greater ΔCN for minimum precipitation and minimum temperature. For maximum precipitation and minimum temperature, forbs and grasses tended to have larger ΔCN while grasses and trees had larger ΔCN for minimum precipitation.ConclusionOur results show that distribution data are consistently broader than USDA PLANTS experts’ knowledge and likely provide more robust estimates of climatic tolerance, especially for widespread forbs and grasses. These findings suggest that widely available expert-based climatic tolerance estimates underrepresent species’ fundamental niche and likely fail to capture the realized niche.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Plant Distribution Data Show Broader Climatic Limits than Expert-Based Climatic Tolerance Estimates

Curtis

Bradley

2016

PLoS ONE

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“…, Ceia‐Hasse et al. ), but activity restriction due to water stress may be a more potent limitation (Pirtle et al., in press).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Field tests of a general ectotherm niche model show how water can limit lizard activity and distribution

Kearney

Munns

Moore

et al. 2018

Ecological Monographs

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Mechanistic forecasts of how species will respond to climate change are highly desired but difficult to achieve. Because processes at different scales are explicit in such models, careful assessments of their predictive abilities can provide valuable insights that will be relevant to functionally similar species. However, there are surprisingly few comprehensive field tests of mechanistic niche models in the literature. We applied a general, thermodynamically grounded modeling framework to determine the fundamental niche of an extremely well‐studied herbivorous ectotherm, the sleepy lizard Tiliqua rugosa. We then compared the model predictions with detailed long‐term field observations that included sub‐hourly data on microclimate, activity levels, home ranges, and body temperatures as well as annual to decadal patterns of body condition and growth. Body temperature predictions inferred from gridded climatic data were within 10% of empirically observed values and explained >70% of observed daytime activity patterns across all lizards. However, some periods of activity restriction were explained by predicted desiccation level rather than by temperature, and metabolically driven activity requirements were much lower than potential activity time. Decadal trajectories of field growth and body condition could also be explained to within 10% of observed values, with the variance in trajectories being attributable to whether individuals had access to permanent water. Continent‐wide applications of the model partly captured the inland distribution limit, but only after accounting for water limitations. Predicted changes in habitat suitability under six climate change scenarios were generally positive within the species’ current range, but varied strongly with predicted rainfall. Temperature is regarded as the major factor that will restrict the distribution and abundance of lizards and other terrestrial ectotherms under climate change. Yet our findings show how water can be more important than temperature in constraining the activity, habitat requirements, and distribution limits of terrestrial ectotherms. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of first‐principles computation of the climatic limits on terrestrial animals from gridded environmental data, providing a coherent picture for how species will respond to climate change at different scales of space and time.

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“…Kremen et al 2008;Nori et al 2013;Faleiro et al 2013). Another approach for predicting the impact of global climate change are the mechanistic models, which require specific life history and ecological data of organisms, such as activity patterns, reproductive potential, metabolic rates, prey abundance and development rate (Kearney & Porter 2009;Buckley et al 2011;Ceia-Hasse et al 2014). Still, the information needed to apply those models for many species remains scarce.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Translating niche features: Modelling differential exposure of Argentine reptiles to global climate change

et al. 2015

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Global climate change affects the distributions of ectotherms and may be the cause of several conservation problems, such as great displacement of climatic suitable spaces for species and, consequently, important reductions of the extent of liveable places, threatening the existence of many of them. Species exposure (and hence vulnerability) to global climate change is linked to features of their climatic niches (such as the relative position of the inhabited localities of each species in the climatic space), and therefore to characteristics of their geographic ranges (such as the extent of the distributions or altitudinal range inhabited by the species). In order to analyze the pattern of response of Argentine reptiles to global climate change, we ran phylogenetic generalized least squares models using species exposure to global climate change as a response variable, and (i) niche properties (breadth and position of the species in the climate space) and (ii) general features of the distribution of species (maximum latitude, altitudinal range, maximum elevation, distributional range and proximity to the most important dispersal barrier) as predictors. Our results suggest that the best way to explain climate change exposure is by combining breadth and position of climatic niche of the species or combining geographic features that are indicators of both niche characteristics. Our best model shows that in our study area, species with the narrowest distributional ranges that also inhabit the highest elevations are the most exposed to the effects of global climate change. In this sense, reptile species from Yungas, Puna and Andes ecoregions could be especially vulnerable to the effects of climate change. We believe that these types of models may represent an interesting tool for determining species and places particularly threatened by the effects of global climate change, which should be strongly considered in conservation planning.

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Integrating ecophysiological models into species distribution projections of European reptile range shifts in response to climate change

Cited by 62 publications

References 47 publications

Plant Distribution Data Show Broader Climatic Limits than Expert-Based Climatic Tolerance Estimates

Plant Distribution Data Show Broader Climatic Limits than Expert-Based Climatic Tolerance Estimates

Field tests of a general ectotherm niche model show how water can limit lizard activity and distribution

Translating niche features: Modelling differential exposure of Argentine reptiles to global climate change

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