Integrating downscaled CMIP5 data with a physically based hydrologic model to estimate potential climate change impacts on streamflow processes in a mixed-use watershed

Abstract

Climatic changes have altered surface water regimes worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. To inform management decisions, climate projections must be paired with hydrologic models to develop quantitative estimates of watershed scale water regime changes. Such modeling approaches often involve downscaling climate model outputs, which are generally presented at coarse spatial scales. In this study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model projections were analyzed to determine models representing severe and conservative climate scenarios for the study watershed. Based on temperature and precipitation projections, output from GFDL‐ESM2G (representative concentration pathway 2.6) and MIROC‐ESM (representative concentration pathway 8.5) were selected to represent conservative (ΔC) and severe (ΔS) change scenarios, respectively. Climate data were used as forcing for the soil and water assessment tool to analyze the potential effects of climate change on hydrologic processes in a mixed‐use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results showed annual streamflow decreases ranging from −5.9% to −26.8% and evapotranspiration (ET) increases ranging from +7.2% to +19.4%. During the mid‐21st century, sizeable decreases to summer streamflow were observed under both scenarios, along with large increases of fall, spring, and summer ET under ΔS. During the late 21st century period, large decreases of summer streamflow under both scenarios, and large increases to spring (ΔS), fall (ΔS) and summer (ΔC) ET were observed. This study demonstrated the sensitivity of a Midwestern watershed to future climatic changes utilizing projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models and presented an approach that used multiple climate model outputs to characterize potential watershed scale climate impacts.

Climate and Land Use Effects on Hydrologic Processes in a Primarily Rain‐Fed, Agricultural Watershed

“…Similar trends were found in other areas in the region, such as Hinkson Creek, Missouri (Sunde et al. ) where elevated future spring and fall total water yield under RCP 8.5 scenario in mid‐century was simulated. Gautam et al.…”

Estimating Potential Climate Change Effects on the Upper Neuse Watershed Water Balance Using the SWAT Model

“…The researchers used a semi-distributed model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), to assess the effect of future climate change on hydrologic components of the Upper Mississippi River Basin. Similar SWAT model studies were able to identify specific changes in local hydrology and ecosystem consequences due to climate change for other watersheds across the globe (Moradkhani et al 2010;Park et al 2011;Ficklin et al 2013;Ye and Grimm 2013;Chattopadhyay et al 2017;Meaurio et al 2017;Sunde et al 2017;Bajracharya et al 2018;Reshmidevi et al 2018). They also evaluated the sensitivity of the Upper Mississippi River Basin to atmospheric, precipitation, and temperature changes.…”

Facing Water Stress in a Changing Climate: A Case Study of Drought Risk Analysis Under Future Climate Projections in the Xi River Basin, China

“…In this study, the 16 GCMs were statistically downscaled after bias-correlation, making it possible to characterize the potential uncertainties arisen from the GCMs. Moreover, several studies have demonstrated the reliability of the selected GCMs in global and regional climate change studies (Tan et al, 2017;Srinivasa Raju et al, 2017;Sunde et al, 2017;Merabti et al, 2018).…”