Climate and Land Use Effects on Hydrologic Processes in a Primarily Rain‐Fed, Agricultural Watershed

Phung, Quang A.; Thompson, Allen L.; Baffaut, Claire; Costello, Christine; Sadler, E. J.; Svoma, Bohumil M.; Lupo, Anthony R.; Gautam, Sagar

doi:10.1111/1752-1688.12764

Cited by 15 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 81 publications

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“…Consequently, the effect of climate change is decisive compared to the LULCC in the Finchaa catchment. The high sensitivity of water balance components and streamflow to the climate change is also reported by other studies in different parts of the world [22,72,73,78,79]. For example, the study by Shi et al [73] in the upstream of Huai River, China reported that the combined effect of LULC and climate change has increased surface water, evapotranspiration and streamflow.…”

Section: Impacts Of Land Use/land Cover and Climate Changementioning

confidence: 54%

Watershed Hydrological Response to Combined Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Change in Highland Ethiopia: Finchaa Catchment

Dibaba

Demissie

Miegel

2020

Water

120

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Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change affect the availability of water resources by altering the magnitude of surface runoff, aquifer recharge, and river flows. The evaluation helps to identify the level of water resources exposure to the changes that could help to plan for potential adaptive capacity. In this research, Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov in IDRISI software was used to predict the future LULC scenarios and the ensemble mean of four regional climate models (RCMs) in the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)-Africa was used for the future climate scenarios. Distribution mapping was used to bias correct the RCMs outputs, with respect to the observed precipitation and temperature. Then, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate the watershed hydrological responses of the catchment under separate, and combined, LULC and climate change. The result shows the ensemble mean of the four RCMs reported precipitation decline and increase in future temperature under both representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The increases in both maximum and minimum temperatures are higher for higher emission scenarios showing that RCP8.5 projection is warmer than RCP4.5. The changes in LULC brings an increase in surface runoff and water yield and a decline in groundwater, while the projected climate change shows a decrease in surface runoff, groundwater and water yield. The combined study of LULC and climate change shows that the effect of the combined scenario is similar to that of climate change only scenario. The overall decline of annual flow is due to the decline in the seasonal flows under combined scenarios. This could bring the reduced availability of water for crop production, which will be a chronic issue of subsistence agriculture. The possibility of surface water and groundwater reduction could also affect the availability of water resources in the catchment and further aggravate water stress in the downstream. The highly rising demands of water, owing to socio-economic progress, population growth and high demand for irrigation water downstream, in addition to the variability temperature and evaporation demands, amplify prolonged water scarcity. Consequently, strong land-use planning and climate-resilient water management policies will be indispensable to manage the risks.

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Section: Impacts Of Land Use/land Cover and Climate Changementioning

confidence: 54%

Watershed Hydrological Response to Combined Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Change in Highland Ethiopia: Finchaa Catchment

Dibaba

Demissie

Miegel

2020

Water

120

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“…The interest of current studies of land use change, beyond a mere descriptive representation in form of maps analysis, focuses on a more dynamic modeling for understanding the past, monitoring the current situation, and predicting future trajectories [45,46]. The review conducted confirms this and shows that there are numerous models of land use that allow us to explore the dynamics of changes and analyze future scenarios that may be useful to support land use planning and policy development [15,47,48].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 80%

“…The approach of dynamic spatially distributed models is generally sectoral (discipline-specific) in any of the spatial scales, especially in the different spatial scales to watersheds. In watersheds, this approach focuses on the effects that land use change has on the hydrological functioning of the watershed, such as water flows [45,87,88] and nutrients [89,90], which in turn translate into changes on different subsystems of the watershed (drainage, aquifers, wetlands, river, lake or final receiving system of water flows).…”

Section: Modeling Methodologies and Approaches Used In The Scenario Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Environmental Scenario Analysis on Natural and Social-Ecological Systems: A Review of Methods, Approaches and Applications

García

Fernández²,

Fitz

2020

Sustainability

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Scenario analysis is a useful tool to facilitate discussions about the main trends of future change and to promote the understanding of global environmental changes implications on relevant aspects of sustainability. In this paper, we reviewed 294 articles published between 1995–2019, to evaluate the state of the art use of models and scenarios to investigate the effects of land use change and climate change on natural and social-ecological systems. Our review focuses on three issues. The first explores the extent to which the environmental dynamics of land use and climate change were jointly analyzed and the spatial scales associated with such integrated studies. The second explores the modelling methodologies and approaches used in the scenario analysis. The third explores the methods for developing or building scenarios. Results show that in most predictions there is little integration of key drivers of change. We find most forecasting studies use a sectoral modelling approach through dynamic spatially distributed models. Most articles do not apply a participatory approach in the development of scenarios. Based on this review, we conclude that there are some gaps in how scenario analysis on natural and social-ecological systems are conducted. These gaps pose a challenge for the use of models and scenarios as predictive tools in decision-making processes in the context of global change.

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“…In the U.S. Midwest, climate change is expected to cause more intense precipitation with longer, drier periods between events (e.g., USGCRP, 2018; Ukkola et al ., 2020). There is evidence that drought‐induced stress on water supply and crop production will increase reliance on groundwater (e.g., Jin et al ., 2017; Phung et al ., 2019). Groundwater that is discharged to streams is referred to as baseflow, and it is what sustains flow between precipitation events (Brutsaert, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected changes in monthly baseflow across the U.S. Midwest

Ayers

Villarini

Schilling

et al. 2021

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Baseflow is an essential water resource because it is the groundwater discharged to streams and represents long‐term storage. Understanding its future changes is a major concern for water supply and ecosystem health. This study examines the impacts of climate and agriculture on monthly baseflow in the U.S. Midwest through the end of the 21st century. We use a statistical approach to evaluate three scenarios. The first scenario is based on downscaled and bias corrected global climate model (GCM) outputs and the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, and agriculture is held constant (and equal to the mean from 2013 to 2019). In the next two scenarios, climate is held constant (2010–2019) to isolate the impact of agriculture on baseflow. In terms of agricultural changes, we consider scenarios representative of either increases or decreases with respect to the production of corn and soybeans. Changes in the climate system point to increases in baseflow that are likely a result of increased precipitation and antecedent wetness. Seasonally, warmer temperature in the winter and spring (i.e., February to July) is expected to cause increasing trends in baseflow. Changes in land use showed that agriculture would either mitigate the impact of climate change or possibly amplify it. Expanding corn and soybean areas would increase baseflow in the Corn Belt region. On the other hand, converting land back to perennial vegetation would decrease baseflow throughout the entire year. Despite its simplicity, this study can provide basic information to understand where to expect adverse effects on baseflow and thus improve land management practices in those areas.

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Climate and Land Use Effects on Hydrologic Processes in a Primarily Rain‐Fed, Agricultural Watershed

Cited by 15 publications

References 81 publications

Watershed Hydrological Response to Combined Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Change in Highland Ethiopia: Finchaa Catchment

Watershed Hydrological Response to Combined Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Change in Highland Ethiopia: Finchaa Catchment

Environmental Scenario Analysis on Natural and Social-Ecological Systems: A Review of Methods, Approaches and Applications

Projected changes in monthly baseflow across the U.S. Midwest

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