Integrated modelling to assess climate change impacts on groundwater and surface water in the Great Lakes Basin using diverse climate forcing

Persaud, Elisha; Levison, Jana; MacRitchie, Scott; Berg, Steven J.; Erler, Andre R.; Parker, Beth L.; Sudicky, Edward A.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124682

Cited by 34 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 70 publications

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“…However, differences in surface water were significant under RCP 8.5, which argued for RCP 8.5 streamflow losses by mid-century to be taken more seriously. The percentage of streamflow decreased by mid-century (À22%) fell within the range of streamflow decrease (À6% to À30%) in a different part of the Great Lakes basin for mid-century RCP 8.5 (Persaud et al, 2020). Since smaller municipalities in the region rely on surface water for their water supply, this projection may force these smaller towns to turn to the Great Lakes or groundwater by mid-century, if not sooner, under RCP 8.5.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 83%

“…This study complements a number of models developed for the Great Lakes region to analyse climate change and/or land use implications on the hydrologic cycle (Cherkauer & Sinha, 2010;Mao & Cherkauer, 2009;Niu et al, 2014;Persaud et al, 2020;Wu & Johnston, 2007). In addition, results of this research will provide current and future assessments of water resources in WNY to aid in water policy decision making and management throughout the region.…”

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confidence: 92%

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Vulnerability of water resources under a changing climate and human activity in the lower Great Lakes region

Soonthornrangsan

Lowry

2021

Hydrological Processes

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Globally, the number of people experiencing water stress is expected to increase by millions by the end of the century. The Great Lakes region, representing 20% of the world's surface freshwater, is not immune to stresses on water supply due to uncertainties on the impacts of climate and land use change. It is imperative for researchers and policy makers to assess the changing state of water resources, even if the region is water rich. This research developed the integrated surface water-groundwater GSFLOW model and investigated the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on water resources in the lower Great Lakes region of Western New York.To capture a range of scenarios, two climate emission pathways and three land development projections were used, specifically RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, increased urbanization by 50%, decreased urbanization by 50%, and current land cover, respectively. Model outputs of surface water and groundwater discharge into the Great Lakes and groundwater storage for mid-and late century were compared to historical to determine the direction and amplitude of changes. Both surface water and groundwater systems show no statistically significant changes under RCP 4.5 but substantial and worrisome losses with RCP 8.5 by mid-century and end of century. Under RCP 8.5, streamflow decreased by 22% for mid-century and 42% for late century. Adjusting impervious surfaces revealed complex land use effects, resulting in spatially varying groundwater head fluctuations. For instance, increasing impervious surfaces lowered groundwater levels from 0.5 to 3.8 m under Buffalo, the largest city in the model domain, due to reduced recharge in surrounding suburban areas. Ultimately, results of this study highlight the necessity of integrated modelling in assessing temporal changes to water resources. This research has implications for other water-rich areas, which may not be immune to effects of climate change and human activities. K E Y W O R D S climate change, Great Lakes region, western new york, groundwater storage, GSFLOW, integrated hydrological modelling, land use, surface water-groundwater model, water resources 1 | INTRODUCTION Water scarcity is a progressively prevalent and global issue that will be exacerbated by future climate change and human activities. Gosling and Arnell (2013) anticipated an increase of 0.5-4.7 billion people to experience water scarcity based on climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. Superimposed on a changing climate, human activities through land use and land cover change can worsen water

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 83%

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confidence: 92%

Vulnerability of water resources under a changing climate and human activity in the lower Great Lakes region

Soonthornrangsan

Lowry

2021

Hydrological Processes

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“…The combination of it with a very variable precipitation input has to be monitored in the future for its potential effects on drainage. As for the future projections, there is a large inter-model variability, as in Crosbie et al (2013) and in Persaud et al (2020), of all hydrological variables, which is evident for all catchments, and almost no significant trends. This last result is in line with Gudmundsson et al (2017) for this part of Europe.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 91%

“…A large variability between the different projections was obtained, as in Crosbie et al (2013) and in Persaud et al (2020), with a much less clear pattern in spatial variability if compared with the past data trends evaluations.…”

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confidence: 79%

Aquifer recharge in the Piedmont Alpine zone: Historical trends and future scenarios

Brussolo

Palazzi

Hardenberg

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. The spatial and temporal variability of temperature, precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and of the related water balance components, as well as their responses to anthropogenic climate change, provide fundamental information for an effective management of water resources. In this study we evaluated the past, present and future quantity of groundwater resources available for drinking supply in the water catchments feeding the about 2.3 million inhabitants of the Greater Turin metropolitan area (North-Western Italy), considering climatologies at the quarterly and yearly timescales. Observed temperature and precipitation data from 1959 to 2017 were analyzed to assess historical trends, their significance and the possible cross-correlations between the water balance components. Regional climate model (RCM) simulations from a small ensemble were analysed to provide mid-century projections of aquifer recharge for the area of interest under two emission scenarios. The analysis over the historical period indicated that the driest areas of the study region displayed negative annual (and spring quarter) trends of the difference between precipitation and actual evapotranspiration. Even close-by watersheds exhibit different behaviors, given the large spatial variability of this area at the edge between the Alps and the Mediterranean region. The analysis of future projections suggested almost stationary conditions for annual recharge, with a slight decrease in the second half of the year. The future trends of drainage are very different across the considered RCM ensemble. The large interannual variability of precipitation was identified as the most relevant risk factor for water management, expected to play a major role also in future decades.

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“…In a recent study focused on identifying the influencing factors on groundwater drought and depletion in north-western Bangladesh, it was shown that there is a vital need of including human-induced effects for drought analysis, and a latent urgency for new research and methods to identify the human influence on groundwater depletion (Mustafa et al 2017). Several studies have improved the general understanding of how a groundwater system may respond to human influences, as well as on the potential impacts on groundwater drought (Parkinson et al 2016;Jakóbczyk-Karpierz et al 2017;Thomas et al 2017;Han et al 2019;Escriva-Bou et al 2020;Kavianpour et al 2020;Persaud et al 2020).…”

Section: Graphical Abstract Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of the groundwater system in the Chihuahua-Sacramento aquifer due to climatic and anthropogenic factors

Sánchez

Navarro-Gómez

Rentería

et al. 2021

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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Groundwater is the main source of water in arid cities where precipitations are low and not evenly distributed. The combined impact of climate variability and intensive human activities has caused a substantial decline in groundwater levels. Understanding the response of groundwater levels to meteorological and anthropogenic factors is a key step to propose water management alternatives. Meteorological and groundwater data were used to design a multi-step approach to assess the influential factors on the groundwater system in the City of Chihuahua, Mexico. The analysis of historical groundwater levels and climate showed a clear increase in meteorological drought, as well as a groundwater abstraction trend since 1986. Rainfall, groundwater recharge, and groundwater level displayed a significant decrease. Overall, the groundwater depth is continuously increasing with a strong correlation with groundwater abstraction. Despite having a significant trend, the changes in land-cover, groundwater recharge, and meteorological drought were not the main factors inducing the decreased level of water in the aquifer. The continuous abstraction of groundwater from 1986 to 2010 has led to a depletion of groundwater levels from 32 to 92 m. The findings of this study lay a foundation for future water resource management in the study area.

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Integrated modelling to assess climate change impacts on groundwater and surface water in the Great Lakes Basin using diverse climate forcing

Cited by 34 publications

References 70 publications

Vulnerability of water resources under a changing climate and human activity in the lower Great Lakes region

Vulnerability of water resources under a changing climate and human activity in the lower Great Lakes region

Aquifer recharge in the Piedmont Alpine zone: Historical trends and future scenarios

Evolution of the groundwater system in the Chihuahua-Sacramento aquifer due to climatic and anthropogenic factors

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