Integrated modelling of water availability and water use in the semi-arid Northeast of Brazil

Bronstert, Axel; Jaeger, Annekathrin; Güntner, Andreas; Hauschild, Maike; Döll, Petra; Krol, Martinus S.

doi:10.1016/s1464-1909(00)00008-3

Cited by 31 publications

(16 citation statements)

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“…The WASA model, in turn, is part of the Semiarid Integrated Model SIM (Krol et al, 2001;Jaeger, 2004), which integrates in a modular way component models of water availability, water use, agricultural production, agro-economy and socioeconomy to assess impacts of global change on the semiarid Northeast of Brazil. Within this framework, the coupling of the modules of water availability (WASA) and water use (NOWUM, Döll & Hauschild, 2002) is of particular relevance for the present study (see also Bronstert et al, 2000). The basic concept of reservoir modelling presented here is to group the large number of reservoirs into different classes according to their size, i.e.…”

Section: Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simple water balance modelling of surface reservoir systems in a large data-scarce semiarid region / Modélisation simple du bilan hydrologique de systèmes de réservoirs de surface dans une grande région semi-aride pauvre en données

Güntner

Krol

Araújo

et al. 2004

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Water resources in dryland areas are often provided by numerous surface reservoirs. As a basis for securing future water supply, the dynamics of reservoir systems need to be simulated for large river basins, accounting for environmental change and an increasing water demand. For the State of Ceará in semiarid Northeast Brazil, with several thousands of reservoirs, a simple deterministic water balance model is presented. Within a cascade-type approach, the reservoirs are grouped into six classes according to storage capacity, rules for flow routing between reservoirs of different size are defined, and water withdrawal and return flow due to human water use is accounted for. While large uncertainties in model applications exist, particularly in terms of reservoir operation rules, model validation against observed reservoir storage volumes shows that the approach is a reasonable simplification to assess surface water availability in large river basins. The results demonstrate the large impact of reservoir storage on downstream flow and stress the need for a coupled simulation of runoff generation, network redistribution and water use.

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Section: Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simple water balance modelling of surface reservoir systems in a large data-scarce semiarid region / Modélisation simple du bilan hydrologique de systèmes de réservoirs de surface dans une grande région semi-aride pauvre en données

Güntner

Krol

Araújo

et al. 2004

Hydrological Sciences Journal

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“…The catchment is of 25 crucial importance in terms of water supply for the whole state and has been intensively investigated in numerous studies (e.g. Bronstert et al, 2000;Gaiser et al, 2003;de Araújo et al, 2004;Krol et al, 2006;Mamede et al, 2012;van Oel et al, 2012;de Figueiredo et al, 2016). It covers an area of about 70,000 km 2 with a rural population of 2.7 million.…”

Section: Study Sitementioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeast Brazil: About the added value of a process-based hydrological model

Pilz¹,

Delgado²,

Voss³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. The semiarid northeast of Brazil is one of the most densely populated dryland regions in the world and recurrently affected by severe droughts. Thus, reliable seasonal forecasts of streamflow and reservoir storage are of high value for water managers. Such forecasts can be generated by applying either hydrological models representing underlying processes or statistical relationships exploiting correlations among meteorological and hydrological variables. This work evaluates and compares the performances of seasonal reservoir storage forecasts derived by a process-based hydrological model and a statistical Driven by observations, both models achieve similar simulation accuracies. In a hindcast experiment, however, the accuracy of estimating regional reservoir storages was considerably lower using the process-based hydrological model, whereas the resolution and reliability of drought event predictions were similar by both approaches. Further investigations regarding the deficiencies of the process-based model revealed a significant influence of antecedent wetness conditions and a higher 10 sensitivity of model prediction performance towards rainfall forecast quality.Based on the findings of this study, we recommend using a statistical approach for merely predicting reservoir level and drought events at regionally and monthly aggregated scales. However, for forecasts at finer scales of space and time or for the investigation of underlying processes, the costly initialisation and application of a process-based model is worthwhile. Furthermore, the application of innovative data products, such as remote sensing data, and operational model correction methods, like 15 data assimilation, may allow for an enhanced exploitation of the advanced capabilities of process-based hydrological models.

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“…Runoff routing in the river network is represented by a simple linear response function depending on flow length and average slope of the main river in a sub-basin . Withdrawal water use is taken into account by a model-based assessment of water use in various sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, industrial and tourist water use) (Döll and Hauschild, 2002) and is directly coupled to river flow and reservoir volumes in WASA (Bronstert et al, 2000). …”

Section: Catchment (Scale Level 1)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Representation of landscape variability and lateral redistribution processes for large-scale hydrological modelling in semi-arid areas

Güntner

Bronstert

2004

Journal of Hydrology

114

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The spatial variability of landscape features such as topography, soils and vegetation defines the spatial pattern of hydrological state variables like soil moisture. Spatial variability thereby controls the functional behaviour of the landscape in terms of its runoff response. A consequence of spatial variability is that exchange processes between landscape patches can occur at various spatial scales ranging from the plot to the basin scale. In semi-arid areas, the lateral redistribution of surface runoff between adjacent landscape patches is an important process. For applications to large river basins of 10 4 -10 5 km 2 in size, a multi-scale landscape discretization scheme is presented in this paper. The landscape is sub-divided into modelling units within a hierarchy of spatial scale levels. By delineating areas characterized by a typical toposequence, organised and random variability of landscape characteristics is captured in the model. Using runoff -runon relationships with transition frequencies based on areal fractions of modelling units, lateral surface and subsurface water fluxes between modelling units at the hillslope scale are represented. Thus, the new approach allows for a manageable description of interactions between fine-scale landscape features for inclusion in coarse-scale models. Model applications for the State of Ceará (150,000 km 2 ) in the north-east of Brazil demonstrate the importance of taking into account landscape variability and interactions between landscape patches in a semiarid environment. Using mean landscape characteristics leads to a considerable underestimation of infiltration-excess surface runoff and total simulated runoff. Re-infiltration of surface runoff and lateral redistribution processes between landscape patches cause a reduction of runoff volumes at the basin scale and contribute to the amplification of variations in runoff volumes relative to variations in rainfall volumes for semi-arid areas. q 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V.

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Integrated modelling of water availability and water use in the semi-arid Northeast of Brazil

Cited by 31 publications

References 0 publications

Simple water balance modelling of surface reservoir systems in a large data-scarce semiarid region / Modélisation simple du bilan hydrologique de systèmes de réservoirs de surface dans une grande région semi-aride pauvre en données

Simple water balance modelling of surface reservoir systems in a large data-scarce semiarid region / Modélisation simple du bilan hydrologique de systèmes de réservoirs de surface dans une grande région semi-aride pauvre en données

Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeast Brazil: About the added value of a process-based hydrological model

Representation of landscape variability and lateral redistribution processes for large-scale hydrological modelling in semi-arid areas

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