Integrated Management and Environmental Impact Assessment of Sustainable Groundwater-Dependent Development in Toshka District, Egypt

Abstract

Egypt has recently inaugurated a mega development project aiming to alleviate the overpopulation along the Nile River and to meet the looming food gap. Toshka is a promising area where groundwater-dependent activities are being expanded adjacent to Lake Nasser. Thus, it is of utmost importance to provide a sustainable development approach and to assess the resulting environmental implications. Accordingly, a coupled groundwater flow and transport model was invoked. The generated model was successfully calibrated for the observed water levels and salinity. The proposed exploitation regime of 102 wells each pumping 1000 m3/day was simulated for a 100-year test period. The maximum resulting drawdown was about 25 m, compatible with the advocated sustainable restriction limit. Climate change (CC) impacts of reducing the lake’s storage and increasing the crops’ water requirements were investigated. The lake’s water level fluctuations were a key factor in the aquifer hydraulics and flow direction. The drawdown breakthrough considering the CC catastrophic scenario (RCP8.5) has increased by about 20%. The developed solute transport model was utilized to simulate the salinity spatial distribution and the lateral movement of leaking pollutants from the underway activities. Cultivation activities were found feasible up to 80 km away from the lake border where salinity does not exceed 2000 ppm. Yet, a protection strip of not less than 4.8, 6.0, and 7.2 km according to the lake operating condition is inevitable to ensure that pollutants do not intrude into the lake. These findings will assist the decision-makers in scheming environmental impact assessment criteria for sustainable development.

Assessment of groundwater suitability for different activities in Toshka district, south Egypt

“…The success of development in the Western Desert in Egypt hinges largely on the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer (NSA) (Aly et al 2019). A critical concern regarding the sustainability of these ongoing projects is the NSA's capacity to meet the substantial groundwater withdrawals (Aly et al 2023). Additionally, groundwater suitability poses a primary constraint on the expansion of development activities.…”

“…For drinking and domestic purposes, standard limits are given by the World Health Organization (WHO), while for irrigation purposes, the assessment procedure aligns with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) guidelines. Water chemistry can undergo changes due to both natural and anthropogenic influences, complicating its comprehension through simple techniques (Shalby et al 2020;Aly et al 2023). Multivariate statistical methods are therefore applied to decipher significant data.…”

“…In southern Egypt, the Toshka region stands out as a promising development area where extensive human activities are initiated depending on the NSA's potential. Through a numerical model, Aly et al (2023) determined a safe pumping rate in accordance with the sustainable criteria. The primary objective of this study is to assess the groundwater suitability for the proposed activities.…”

Modelling Approach for Assessment of Groundwater Potential of the Moghra Aquifer, Egypt, for Extensive Rural Development

“…Accordingly, Egypt shall witness an imminent challenge for the agriculture sector to cater to the demands of the exponentially growing human population [10]. Rural development is therefore crucial in Egypt to meet the growing food needs [11,12]. Accordingly, the government has initiated an ambitious rural development strategy through a mega groundwater-dependent cultivation project [13].…”

“…A mega reclamation project is now being implemented in Egypt under the framework of moving towards horizontal expansion in barren lands distanced from the Nile River [14]. Thus, desert fossil aquifers have become the sole source of freshwater [11,15]. Currently, groundwater withdrawal is well underway in the newly cultivated areas, mainly for irrigation purposes [16].…”