Integrated assessment of failure probability of the district heating network

Valinčius, Mindaugas; Žutautaitė, Inga; Dundulis, Gintautas; Rimkevičius, Sigitas; Janulionis, Remigijus; Bakas, Rimantas

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2014.09.022

Cited by 33 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Along with the nodal approach assessing the reliability of HN, there is another concept based on the use of integrated RI [6], [28], [29]. The integrated RI determines the quantitative level of required functions performance or some reliability property averaged for HN as a whole during the calculation period.…”

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confidence: 99%

Application of the Methods for Comprehensive Reliability Analysis of District Heating Systems

Postnikov

2020

Environmental and Climate Technologies

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The general idea of the methodology for the comprehensive reliability analysis of district heating systems (DHS), developed earlier by the author of this paper, is a joint considering and modelling of each technological processes, including fuel supply to heat sources (HS), generation of heat energy by these HS and its distribution on district heating network (HN). For solving this problem different methods and models are applied: statistical testing method, Markov random processes, methods of the theory of hydraulic circuits, basic laws of district heating and heat transfer processes, etc. In this paper the main attention is paid to the results of the practical application of methods and models of a comprehensive reliability analysis of DHS using the example of calculations performed for the actual DHS scheme of the Shelekhov city (Irkutsk region, Russia). Different stages of the case study are considered, including preparation of initial data, simulation modelling of fuel supply to HS, modelling of the Markov random process describing operate of DHS, calculation of post-failure modes in HN, evaluation of nodal reliability indices (RI), decomposition analysis of reliability. Based on the analysis of calculation results some preliminary directions are formulated to the increase of reliability for studied DHS. These data are the basis for a comprehensive reliability synthesis (optimization) of DHS, the solution of which is the subject of special perspective stage in development of the research.

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confidence: 99%

Application of the Methods for Comprehensive Reliability Analysis of District Heating Systems

Postnikov

2020

Environmental and Climate Technologies

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“…In a perfect case, the heating supply will perfectly match the heating demand. By closely matching supply and demand, the network will run at greater efficiency, leading to lower operating temperatures, lower distribution and transmission costs, which will in turn lead to lower end user costs, and therefore more users connecting to the network, further reducing costs [115][116][117][118][119][120][121][122][123][124]. To meet demand, DHN operators can control fluid flow in the network, differential pressure and supply temperature [118].…”

Section: Load Predictionmentioning

confidence: 99%

District Heating Challenges for the UK

Millar

Burnside

2019

Energies

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District heating uptake has grown with the increasing need for cleaner and more efficient energy supply. This has resulted in a rising number of new developments signing up to a district heating scheme, typically powered by Combined Heat and Power (CHP) boilers or biomass boilers with supplemental electrical or gas grid connections. These schemes have advanced rapidly in recent years, with much of the research focus targeting lower carbon technologies, improved load prediction and peak demand management. We assess the current status of District Heating Networks (DHNs) in the United Kingdom using published case studies and suggest next steps to improvement. Our findings show that the United Kingdom has good potential for uptake of district energy given the current political climate and government incentives, however significant improvements must be made to further penetrate the heating market.

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“…More research has been done in the field of the reliability of DH system and other technical peculiarities. Kaunas case has been used in the analysis of pipe break accidents [77], reliability assessment of pipeline network systems [78], and network failure probabilities [79]. Kaunas city case is also analyzed in the context of DH market liberalization [80].…”

Section: 3kaunasmentioning

confidence: 99%