Application of the Methods for Comprehensive Reliability Analysis of District Heating Systems

Abstract

The general idea of the methodology for the comprehensive reliability analysis of district heating systems (DHS), developed earlier by the author of this paper, is a joint considering and modelling of each technological processes, including fuel supply to heat sources (HS), generation of heat energy by these HS and its distribution on district heating network (HN). For solving this problem different methods and models are applied: statistical testing method, Markov random processes, methods of the theory of hydraulic circuits, basic laws of district heating and heat transfer processes, etc. In this paper the main attention is paid to the results of the practical application of methods and models of a comprehensive reliability analysis of DHS using the example of calculations performed for the actual DHS scheme of the Shelekhov city (Irkutsk region, Russia). Different stages of the case study are considered, including preparation of initial data, simulation modelling of fuel supply to HS, modelling of the Markov random process describing operate of DHS, calculation of post-failure modes in HN, evaluation of nodal reliability indices (RI), decomposition analysis of reliability. Based on the analysis of calculation results some preliminary directions are formulated to the increase of reliability for studied DHS. These data are the basis for a comprehensive reliability synthesis (optimization) of DHS, the solution of which is the subject of special perspective stage in development of the research.

Methodological provisions to the formation of district-distributed heating systems

“…The main RI are the availability factor and the failurefree operation probability [14]. The methodology of comprehensive reliability analysis for DHS and its practical applications are considered in [15,[17][18][19].…”

Methodological issues for the formation of reliable and efficient district-distributed heating systems

“…The final result is nodal reliability indices (RI), calculated using previously obtained results of probabilistic and physical modeling of states. The methodology for a comprehensive analysis of the reliability of heating systems and its practical applications are described in detail in [12][13][14].…”

Probabilistic modeling of functioning of district-distributed heating systems for the reliability analysis

“…Some studies on the reliability of heating systems (incl. sources and networks) using markov random processes are considered in [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]. The probabilities of emergency states, along with the physical assessment of the consequences of failures, are used to reliability analysis and synthesis for studied systems.…”