Integrated assessment of climate change impacts on crop productivity and income of commercial maize farms in northeast South Africa

Cammarano, Davide; Valdivia, Roberto O.; Beletse, Y.G.; Durand, Wiltrud; Crespo, Olivier; Tesfuhuney, Weldemichael A.; Jones, Matthew R.; Walker, Sue; Mpuisang, T.N.; Nhemachena, Charles; Ruane, Alex C.; Mutter, Carolyn Z.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Antle, John M.

doi:10.1007/s12571-020-01023-0

Cited by 32 publications

(16 citation statements)

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“…Several researchers have studied the impacts of climate change on various crops and their productivity using different methodological approaches. They have used either process-based biophysical models or economic and statistical models ( Singh et al, 2014a ; Rosenzweig and Hillel, 2015 ; Kadiyala et al, 2015 ; Cammarano et al, 2020 ). Crop simulation and other autoregressive models have been widely used to examine the impacts of abiotic stresses such as long-term changes in surface temperatures, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and rainfall on various crops ( Halder et al, 2020 ; Ye et al, 2020 ; Demirhan, 2020 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies on groundnut production in India

Kadiyala

Nedumaran

Padmanabhan

et al. 2021

Science of The Total Environment

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Groundnut is one of the significant sources of oil, food, and fodder in India. It is grown in marginal arid and semi-arid agro-ecosystems with wide yield fluctuations due to spatial variability of rainfall and soil. Climate change, which is predicted to increase the intra- and inter-annual rainfall variability will further constrain the groundnut economy in India besides the global and domestic economic, social and policy changes. Through this study we aim to examine the biophysical and social economic impacts of climate change on groundnut production and prices to provide a comprehensive analysis of how agriculture and the food system will be affected. Using projected climate data for India, we estimated the biophysical impacts of climate change on groundnut during mid-century using representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. We examined the impacts of changes in population and income besides environmental factors on groundnut productivity. This is to highlight the importance of holistic assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic factors to better understand climate change impacts. Modelled projections show that by 2050, climate change under an optimistic scenario will result in −2.3 to 43.2% change in groundnut yields across various regions in India when climate alone was factored in. But the change in groundnut yields ranged from −0.9% to 16.2% when economic (population and income) and market variables (elasticities, trade, etc.) were also considered. Similarly, under pessimistic climate change scenario, the percent change in groundnut yields would be −33.7 to 3.4 with only the climate factored in and −11.2 to 4.3 with the additional economic and market variables included. This indicates the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic factors. This study highlights the need to take into account market effects to gain a holistic understanding of how economic and environmental factors impact agricultural food systems and economies.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies on groundnut production in India

Kadiyala

Nedumaran

Padmanabhan

et al. 2021

Science of The Total Environment

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“…Agricultural production in the country is practised mostly under rain-fed conditions, which makes it particularly vulnerable to climate risk (Ndhleve et al 2017). South Africa's agriculture plays an important role in the country's food security and economy, as it sustains more than 70% of the region's population food, income and employment (Cammarano et al 2020). Apart from the constraints posed by climate change on agriculture, farmers in South Africa are subjected to other non-climatic factors such as high production cost, insufficient arable land, poorly implemented policy initiatives and lack of technological support, which further aggravate the challenges experienced by farmers trying to respond adequately to climate threats (Mapfumo et al 2014).…”

Section: Graphical Abstract Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of smallholder farmers’ perception and adaptation response to climate change in the Olifants catchment, South Africa

Olabanji

Davis

Ndarana

et al. 2021

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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Climate change is expected to affect the livelihood of rural farmers in South Africa particularly the smallholder farmers, due to their overwhelming dependence on rain-fed agriculture. This study examines smallholder farmers' perception of climate change, the adaptation strategies adopted and factors that influences their adaptive decisions. The unit of data collection was household interview and focus group discussion. Climate data for the Olifants catchment (1986–2015) were also collected to validate farmers' perception of climate change with actual climate trend. Data collected were analysed using descriptive statistics, Mann–Kendall trend, Sen's slope estimator and multinomial logit regression model. Results revealed that smallholder farmers are aware of climate change (98%), their perception of these changes aligns with actual meteorological data, as the Mann–Kendall test confirms a decreasing inter-annual rainfall trend (−0.172) and an increasing temperature trend (0.004). These changes in temperature and precipitation have prompted the adoption of various adaptation responses, among which the use of improved seeds, application of chemical fertilizer and changing planting dates were the most commonly practised. The main barriers to the adoption of adaptation strategies were lack of access to credit facility, market, irrigation, information about climate change and lack of extension service. The implication of this study is to provide information to policy-makers on the current adaptation responses adopted by farmers and ways in which their adaptive capacity can be improved in order to ensure food security.

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“…Importantly, (Cammarano et al, 2020) used the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) as a tool that, in the face of the prevailing drought problem in the northeastern area of Free-state, South Africa, incorporated data about climate change, crops and the economy to provides and implement adaptation strategies to improve and increase the production of maize in this region. Likewise, (Ishikawa et al, 2020) used the farmers' participatory varietal selection (FPVS) method to collect information from local farmers in the southern regions of Burkina Faso, in West Africa.…”

Section: Deployment Of Climate-smart Agricultural Practices For Improving Productivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Constraints and Prospects of Improving Cowpea Productivity to Ensure Food, Nutritional Security and Environmental Sustainability

Omomowo

Babalola

2021

Front. Plant Sci.

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Providing safe and secure food for an increasing number of people globally is challenging. Coping with such a human population by merely applying the conventional agricultural production system has not proved to be agro-ecologically friendly; nor is it sustainable. Cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L) Walp) is a multi-purpose legume. It consists of high-quality protein for human consumption, and it is rich in protein for livestock fodder. It enriches the soil in that it recycles nutrients through the fixation of nitrogen in association with nodulating bacteria. However, the productivity of this multi-functional, indigenous legume that is of great value to African smallholder farmers and the rural populace, and also to urban consumers and entrepreneurs, is limited. Because cowpea is of strategic importance in Africa, there is a need to improve on its productivity. Such endeavors in Africa are wrought with challenges that include drought, salinity, the excessive demand among farmers for synthetic chemicals, the repercussions of climate change, declining soil nutrients, microbial infestations, pest issues, and so forth. Nevertheless, giant strides have already been made and there have already been improvements in adopting sustainable and smart biotechnological approaches that are favorably influencing the production costs of cowpea and its availability. As such, the prospects for a leap in cowpea productivity in Africa and in the enhancement of its genetic gain are good. Potential and viable means for overcoming some of the above-mentioned production constraints would be to focus on the key cowpea producer nations in Africa and to encourage them to embrace biotechnological techniques in an integrated approach to enhance for sustainable productivity. This review highlights the spectrum of constraints that limit the cowpea yield, but looks ahead of the constraints and seeks a way forward to improve cowpea productivity in Africa. More importantly, this review investigates applications and insights concerning mechanisms of action for implementing eco-friendly biotechnological techniques, such as the deployment of bio inoculants, applying climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices, agricultural conservation techniques, and multi-omics smart technology in the spheres of genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, and metabolomics, for improving cowpea yields and productivity to achieve sustainable agro-ecosystems, and ensuring their stability.

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Integrated assessment of climate change impacts on crop productivity and income of commercial maize farms in northeast South Africa

Cited by 32 publications

References 32 publications

Modeling the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies on groundnut production in India

Modeling the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies on groundnut production in India

Assessment of smallholder farmers’ perception and adaptation response to climate change in the Olifants catchment, South Africa

Constraints and Prospects of Improving Cowpea Productivity to Ensure Food, Nutritional Security and Environmental Sustainability

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