Integrasi Perdagangan dan Dinamika Ekspor Indonesia ke Timur Tengah (Studi Kasus: Turki, Tunisia, dan Maroko)

Abstract

Economic development contributes to integration and trade dynamics among countries. From now on, with global economic crisis as background setting, market diversification seems to be an appropriate strategy to minimize the hazardous impact on Indonesia's trade balance performance. It appears that the Middle East is a promising region with Turkey, Tunisia, dan Morocco as potential trade partners. An Intra Industry Trade (IIT) analysis shows that Indonesia experiences a relatively higher trade integration with Turkey compared to those with Tunisia and Morocco. In the meantime, a Constant Market Share Analysis (CMS) analysis indicates that the existing export dynamics is convergence for potential products. These products of animal and vegetable fats and oils, wood and wood products, and rubber and rubber products vary in decomposition effects in each trade partner. Combination of market intelligence and export product differentiation is considered as a comprehensive recommendation in first round stage for the Indonesia-Middle East FTA. Key words : IIT, CMS, Indonesia, Middle East ABSTRAKPerekonomian dunia yang berkembang pesat menyebabkan semakin tingginya integrasi dan dinamika perdagangan antarnegara. Dengan latar belakang krisis keuangan global, strategi diversifikasi pasar dianggap tepat untuk meminimisasi dampak yang merugikan bagi performa neraca perdagangan Indonesia. Komitmen strategi diversifikasi destinasi pasar memunculkan kawasan Timur Tengah sebagai kawasan yang potensial, meliputi Turki, Tunisia, dan Maroko. Analisis Intra Industry Trade (IIT) menunjukkan bahwa derajat integrasi perdagangan Indonesia-Turki lebih erat dibandingkan dengan Tunisia dan Maroko. Sementara itu, analisis Constant Market Share (CMS) mengindikasikan bahwa terdapat fenomena yang konvergen bagi dinamika ekspor Indonesia, dimana minyak yang berasal dari tumbuhan dan hewan, kayu dan produk kayu, serta karet dan produk karet menjadi produk yang potensial dengan efek

Pengaruh Ekspor, Impor, dan Investasi terhadap Pertumbuhan Sektor Pertanian Indonesia

“…Pertumbuhan ekonomi sektor pertanian, 20002001200220032004200520062009201020132014 Tingginya impor pada tahun 2012 sebagai akibat dari meningkatnya permintaan untuk konsumsi, bahan baku dan benih (BPS 2016), sedangkan rendahnya pertumbuhan impor pada tahun 2009 sebagai akibat dari krisis ekonomi global sehingga berdampak pada menurunnya daya beli dalam negeri (BPS 2011). Oktaviani et al (2008) mengatakan bahwa dinamika pertumbuhan ekspor Indonesia secara umum lebih banyak dipengaruhi oleh efek pertumbuhan impor dibandingkan dengan efek komposisi komoditas dan daya saing. Lihan dan Yogi (2003) mengatakan bahwa secara umum komoditas ekspor Indonesia dapat dikelompokkan atas empat komoditas, yaitu (1) komoditas ekspor yang kandungan input impornya rendah, dengan modal dikuasai seluruhnya oleh pemodal dalam negeri; (2) komoditas ekspor yang kandungan input impornya rendah, tetapi modalnya dikuasai seluruhnya atau sebagian oleh pemodal asing; (3) komoditas ekspor yang kandungan input impornya tinggi dengan modal dikuasai seluruhnya oleh pemodal dalam negeri; dan (4) komoditas ekspor yang kandungan input impornya tinggi, tetapi modalnya dikuasai seluruhnya atau sebagian oleh pemodal asing.…”

Comparison of Competitiveness for Crop Estate Commodities in ASEAN and European Markets: Constant Market Share Approach

“…Besides, the analysis is also useful to study the ability of exporting country in managing the perfomance of export to the entire targeting markets in certain period of time through a set of statistical indicators. The basic of understanding for the use of CMS analysis is that the development rate of a country's export can be smaller, or equal or larger than export growth rate of world average (Oktaviani et al, 2008). The assumption of this analysis base is that the segment of export market of certain country in PELITA PERKEBUNAN, Volume 32, Number 3, December 2016 Edition the world market does not change from time to time so the change of competitiveness on a time that is not between two periods of time will be ignored.…”

“…The increasing of dairy product export will also show the additional value of the product which gets higher. Moreover, the increasing of produxt export will be done by promotion, product differentiation, and market investigation to discover the market needs and consumer desire (Oktaviani et al, 2008;Hadi & Mardianto, 2004).…”

“…Development of today free trade brings its own implication for the economy of certain country. Relationship in cooperation among countries will be widely opened to fasten the flow of goods and services for the countries involved in the trade (Oktaviani et al, 2008). The freedom of trade creates the opportunity to open up the new market for producer countries which have important commodity in world trade.…”

“…The trade of plantation commodities in Indonesia depends on sthe global economy fluctuation and the condition of economy of export destination country. Therefore, the slowing condition of global economy influence the characteristics of trade among countries which are marked by the decreasing of consumption level of goods and services by importing countries (Dermoredjo & Setiyanto, 2008;Oktaviani et al, 2008;Simorangkir & Adamanti, 2010). This phenomenon is one of the market risks in international trade.…”