Insights from Antarctica on volcanic forcing during the Common Era

Sigl, Michael; McConnell, Joseph R.; Toohey, Matthew; Curran, Mark A. J.; Das, Sarah B.; Edwards, Ross; Isaksson, Elisabeth; Kawamura, Kenji; Kipfstuhl, Sepp; Krüger, Kirstin; Layman, Lawrence; Maselli, Olivia J.; Motizuki, Yuko; Motoyama, Hideaki; Pasteris, D.; Severi, Mirko

doi:10.1038/nclimate2293

Cited by 168 publications

(198 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Sigl et al, 2014). We find that deposition to both ice sheets peaks first in MAECHAM, followed by SOCOL, then UKCA and WACCM.…”

Section: Multi-model Comparison To Ice Core Recordsmentioning

confidence: 79%

“…The Antarctic ice cores are the most extensive array of annually resolved cores that have been used to reconstruct historic volcanic forcing (Sigl et al, 2014;. 10…”

Section: Model Set-up and Ice Core Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Tambora. However, Sigl et al (2015) found, using additional 25 high temporal-resolution ice core records in Antarctica (Sigl et al, 2014), average Antarctic deposited sulfate of 46 kg km -2 , and a smaller average deposited sulfate on Greenland of 40 kg km -2 , with both averages smaller than the averages provided by Gao et al (2007). Although in Sigl et al (2015) the Antarctic average was derived with 17 ice core records, the Greenland average was calculated from only two ice cores (NEEM and NGRIP) compared to the 22 cores used for Greenland in Gao et al (2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi-model comparison of the volcanic sulfate deposition from the 1815 eruption of Mt. Tambora

Marshall¹,

Schmidt²,

Toohey³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. The eruption of Mt. Tambora in 1815 was the largest volcanic eruption of the past 500 years. The eruption had significant climatic impacts, leading to the 1816 'Year Without a Summer' and remains a valuable event from which to understand the climatic effects of large stratospheric volcanic sulfur dioxide injections. The eruption also resulted in one of the strongest and most easily identifiable volcanic signals in polar ice cores, which are widely used to reconstruct the timing and atmospheric sulfate loading of past eruptions. As part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to 5Volcanic forcing (VolMIP), four state-of-the-art global aerosol models simulated this eruption. We analyse both simulated background (no Tambora) and volcanic (with Tambora) sulfate deposition to polar regions and compare to ice core records.

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“…Sigl et al, 2014). We find that deposition to both ice sheets peaks first in MAECHAM, followed by SOCOL, then UKCA and WACCM.…”

Section: Multi-model Comparison To Ice Core Recordsmentioning

confidence: 79%

“…The Antarctic ice cores are the most extensive array of annually resolved cores that have been used to reconstruct historic volcanic forcing (Sigl et al, 2014;. 10…”

Section: Model Set-up and Ice Core Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi-model comparison of the volcanic sulfate deposition from the 1815 eruption of Mt. Tambora

Marshall¹,

Schmidt²,

Toohey³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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“…S4). In particular, large volcanic eruptions between 1150 and 1300 ce, and again during the early fifteenth century, may be responsible for the observed cooling 43,45 .…”

Section: Volcanic Forcingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era

et al. 2015

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International audienceKnowledge of natural climate variability is essential to better constrain the uncertainties in projections of twenty-first-century climate change 1–5. The past 2,000 years (2 kyr) have emerged as a critical interval in this endeavour, with sufficient length to characterize natural decadal-to-centennial scale change, known external climate forcings 6 and with distinctive patterns of spatiotemporal temperature variations 7. However, reconstructions for the full 2 kyr interval are not available for the global ocean, a primary heat reservoir 8 and an important regulator of global climate on longer timescales 9–11. Here we present a global ocean sea surface temperature (SST) synthesis (Ocean2k SST synthesis) spanning the Common Era, which shows a cooling trend that is similar, within uncertainty, to that simulated by realistically forced climate models for the past millennium. We use the simulations to identify the climate forcing(s) consistent with reconstructed SST variations during the past millennium. The oceans mediate the response of global climate to natural and anthropogenic forcings. Yet for the past 2,000 years — a key interval for understanding the present and future climate response to these forcings — global sea surface temperature changes and the underlying driving mechanisms are poorly constrained. Here we present a global synthesis of sea surface temperatures for the Common Era (ce) derived from 57 individual marine reconstructions that meet strict quality control criteria. We observe a cooling trend from 1 to 1800 ce that is robust against explicit tests for potential biases in the reconstructions. Between 801 and 1800 ce, the surface cooling trend is qualitatively consistent with an independent synthesis of terrestrial temperature reconstructions, and with a sea surface temperature composite derived from an ensemble of climate model simulations using best estimates of past external radiative forcings. Climate simulations using single and cumulative forcings suggest that the ocean surface cooling trend from 801 to 1800 ce is not primarily a response to orbital forcing but arises from a high frequency of explosive volcanism. Our results show that repeated clusters of volcanic eruptions can induce a net negative radiative forcing that results in a centennial and global scale cooling trend via a decline in mixed-layer oceanic heat content

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“…To account for potential sampling bias from the small number of available ice cores available for this time period, and the spatial variability of sulfate deposition to the surface (e.g., Sigl et al 2014), Antarctic and Greenland averages are corrected using scaling factors derived from MAECHAM5-HAM simulations (Supplementary Methods, (Niemeier et al 2009;Toohey et al 2011;Toohey et al 2013)). The model-based scaling factors for both Greenland and Antarctic based on the four ice core locations in Table S1 are close to unity, with values of 1.01 and 0.93 for Greenland and Antarctica respectively.…”

Section: Volcanic Radiative Forcing Constructionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climatic and societal impacts of a volcanic double event at the dawn of the Middle Ages

et al. 2016

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Volcanic activity in and around the year 536 CE led to severe cold and famine, and has been speculatively linked to large-scale societal crises around the globe. Using a coupled aerosol-climate model, with eruption parameters constrained by recently re-dated ice core records and historical observations of the aerosol cloud, we reconstruct the radiative forcing resulting from a sequence of two major volcanic eruptions in 536 and 540 CE. We estimate that the decadal-scale Northern Hemisphere (NH) extra-tropical radiative forcing from this volcanic Bdouble event^was larger than that of any period in existing reconstructions of the last 1200 years. Earth system model simulations including the volcanic forcing show peak NH mean temperature anomalies reaching more than −2°C, and show agreement with the limited number of available maximum latewood density temperature reconstructions. The simulations also produce decadal-scale anomalies of Arctic sea ice. The simulated cooling is interpreted in terms of probable impacts on agricultural production in Europe, and implies a high likelihood of multiple years of significant decreases in crop production across Scandinavia, supporting the theory of a connection between the 536 and 540 eruptions and evidence of societal crisis dated to the mid-6th century.

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Insights from Antarctica on volcanic forcing during the Common Era

Cited by 168 publications

References 29 publications

Multi-model comparison of the volcanic sulfate deposition from the 1815 eruption of Mt. Tambora

Multi-model comparison of the volcanic sulfate deposition from the 1815 eruption of Mt. Tambora

Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era

Climatic and societal impacts of a volcanic double event at the dawn of the Middle Ages

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