Infrastructure sufficiency in meeting water demand under climate-induced socio-hydrological transition in the urbanizing Capibaribe River Basin – Brazil

Abstract

Abstract. Water availability for a range of human uses will increasingly be affected by climate change especially in the arid and semi-arid tropics. This paper aims to evaluate the ability of reservoirs and related infrastructure to meet targets for water supply in the Capibaribe River Basin (CRB), in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil. The basin has experienced spatial and sectoral (agriculture-urban) reconfiguration of water demands. Human settlements that were once dispersed, relying on intermittent sources of surface water, are now increasingly experiencing water-scarcity effects. As a result, rural populations in the CRB are concentrating around infrastructural water supplies in a socio-hydrological transition process that results from (a) hydroclimatic variability, (b) investment and assistance programs that may enhance but can also supplant local adaptive capacity, and (c) demographic trends driving urbanization of the state capital, Recife, which mirror urban growth across Brazil. In the CRB, demands are currently composed of 69.1% urban potable water, 14.3% industrial, 16.6% irrigation (with ecosystem-service demands met by residual flow). Based on the application of linked hydrologic and water-resources models using precipitation and temperature projections of the IPCC SRES A1B scenario, a reduction in rainfall of 31.8% translated to streamflow reduction of 67.4% under present reservoir operations rules. The increasing demand due to population was also taken into account. This would entail severe water supply reductions for human consumption (−45.3%) and irrigation (−78.0%) by the end of the 21st century. This study demonstrates the vulnerabilities of the infrastructure system during socio-hydrological transition in response to hydroclimatic and demand variabilities in the CRB and also indicates the differential spatial impacts and vulnerability of multiple uses of water to changes over time. The paper concludes with a discussion of the broader implications of climate change, urbanization, and industrialization for water supply under socio-hydrological conditions of scarcity.

Sensitivity of emergent sociohydrologic dynamics to internal system properties and external sociopolitical factors: Implications for water management

“…There is, however, a recognition that effective management of this critical resource requires a holistic understanding of the coevolving dynamics and feedbacks inherent in the coupled human‐hydrology system [ Montanari et al ., ; Thompson et al ., ; Sivapalan et al , , ; Sivapalan and Blöschl , ]. In recent years, the emergence of place‐based “sociohydrology” studies have begun to shed light on various aspects of the workings of the coupled system [e.g., Chang et al ., ; Gober and Wheater , ; Kandasamy et al ., ; Liu et al ., ; Ribeiro Neto et al ., ; Srinivasan , ; van Emmerik et al ., ]. In addition, a limited number of generic conceptual models and approaches have been proposed in an effort to identify and explore universal principles across cases (i.e., Di Baldassarre et al .…”

A prototype framework for models of socio-hydrology: identification of key feedback loops and parameterisation approach

“…Furthermore, the resolution of the slow processes that characterise the hydrological system, non-stationarity in climate, and long timescales required to monitor threshold shifts are all distinct features of such investigations. Finally, the specific vulnerability and responsiveness that the hydrological coupled system displays in regard to climate change (Ribeiro Neto et al, 2014) presents an additional challenge. Despite such challenges, recent innovative socio-hydrology studies have proposed conceptualised models focusing on human-flood…”

Bringing the “social” into sociohydrology: Conservation policy support in the Central Great Plains of Kansas, USA

“…We demonstrate the utility of our model by applying it to a watershed in the Central Great Plains of Kansas, USA, building on other place‐based studies in sociohydrology [ Chang et al ., ; Gober and Wheater , ; Kandasamy et al ., ; Liu et al ., ; Ribeiro Neto et al ., ; Srinivasan , ; van Emmerik et al ., ]. The model refines recent research in sociohydrology that operationalizes community sensitivity and collective cooperation variables by identifying an empirical model of social‐psychological decision‐making processes that can more precisely capture behavioral feedbacks from the human system to the natural system [ Elshafei et al ., ].…”

“…An emerging literature illustrates the potential of using a place‐based sociohydrological model to make generalizations about the processes associated with water management in different contexts [ Chang et al ., ; Gober and Wheater , ; Kandasamy et al ., ; Liu et al ., ; Ribeiro Neto et al ., ; Srinivasan , ; van Emmerik et al ., ]. Of this research, Elshafei et al .…”