Information Distortion and Voting Choices: The Origins and Effects of Factual Beliefs in Initiative Elections

Abstract

To account for voter decision making in initiative elections, we integrate theory and research on public opinion, misinformation, and motivated reasoning. Heuristic and motivated reasoning literatures suggest that voters' preexisting values interact with political sophistication such that politically knowledgeable voters develop systematically distorted empirical beliefs relevant to the initiatives on their ballots. These beliefs, in turn, can predict voting preferences even after controlling for underlying values, regardless of one's political sophistication. These hypotheses were tested using a 2003 voter survey conducted prior to a statewide initiative election that repealed a workplace safety regulation. Results showed that only those voters knowledgeable of key endorsements had initiative-specific beliefs that lined up with their underlying antiregulation values. Also, voters' empirical beliefs had an effect on initiative support even after controlling for prior values, and political sophistication did not moderate this effect.

When Corrections Fail: The Persistence of Political Misperceptions

“…4 Like Wells et al (2009), we therefore expect that information concerning one's beliefs about controversial empirical questions in politics (i.e. factual beliefs) will be processed like information concerning one's political views (i.e.…”

How Voters Become Misinformed: An Investigation of the Emergence and Consequences of False Factual Beliefs*

“…Without that knowledge, one does not know where to turn for reliable cues. Following this view, we posited (Wells et al., ) that values play a role in distorting individuals’ empirical beliefs only when they have sufficient political knowledge to connect underlying values with the issue at hand.…”

“…Though we know that distorted beliefs can have political implications, we know relatively little about how misperceptions form and the conditions under which they become politically consequential. The present study aims to advance our understanding of the role of factual beliefs in opinion formation and expression by refining a model introduced in Wells et al (2009), which elaborated previously unacknowledged implications of Zaller's (1992) theory of how empirical political beliefs can shape opinions.…”

In the Eye of the Beholder? Motivated Reasoning in Disputed Elections

“…In the case of election administrators, one might anticipate that those individuals who are motivated to throw a ballot away might ''confirm'' characteristics of the ballot that would make the ballot be discountedand this may be the case even when ballot counters are well-trained and highly driven by accuracy motives. Indeed, Wells et al (2009) found that certain political beliefs are influenced by political values, particularly in cases where individuals are politically sophisticated. ''Disconfirmation bias,'' in a similar vein, occurs when people cannot discount their original beliefs when evaluating policies.…”