Abstract:Resumo: Este artigo buscou detectar a influência do posicionamento dos fundos de investimento junto ao mercado de commodities a partir do comportamento das negociações do milho na Bolsa de Cereais de Chicago (CBOT). Respondendo assim ao problema: qual a dimensão da influência dos fundos de investimento na formação das cotações do milho na CBOT? O objetivo foi verificar, dentro do período de 2006 a 2009, quanto a atuação destes fundos interfere na formação dos preços do cereal, pois as cotações em Chicago serve… Show more
“…The price of corn seed in São Paulo increased by 120% from 2018 (USD 1,827.1) to 2022 (USD 4,028.54) [51]. This significant variability can be explained by changes in the commodities market and currency fluctuations that affect corn costs [52][53][54] Regarding the price of the herbicide glyphosate and the price of diesel fuel, the mesokurtic distribution found for these inputs (moderate concentration of values around the mean) may be related to economic and environmental factors related to production, supply, and demand of these products [46,55]. The remaining variables exhibited a leptokurtic distribution (relatively low concentration of values around the mean).…”
In Brazil, the production of corn and soybeans has been growing significantly in recent years. Considering that the strategies for investing in the production of these crops are conditioned by production costs and risk, the objective of this article is to propose a simulation model that indicates the trend of production costs for these commodities, considering the dispersion and correlation of selected key variable prices and corn and soybean production costs practiced between the years of 2018 and 2022. Fifty specialized companies in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, provided data for this study, and Monte Carlo simulations showed that the total cost of corn production/ha is between USD 600.00 and USD 1150.00, with a level of certainty of 84.7%, and soybeans are in the range of USD 260.00 to USD 420.00, with a level of certainty of 86.4%. The model evidenced a trend of decreasing production costs for the crops for the 2023/24 and 2024/25 harvests, as the input with the greatest impact (fertilizer) is showing a downward trend. On the other hand, costs related to labor, soybean seed, and fungicides are showing an upward trend, while dolomitic limestone corrective remains stable.
“…The price of corn seed in São Paulo increased by 120% from 2018 (USD 1,827.1) to 2022 (USD 4,028.54) [51]. This significant variability can be explained by changes in the commodities market and currency fluctuations that affect corn costs [52][53][54] Regarding the price of the herbicide glyphosate and the price of diesel fuel, the mesokurtic distribution found for these inputs (moderate concentration of values around the mean) may be related to economic and environmental factors related to production, supply, and demand of these products [46,55]. The remaining variables exhibited a leptokurtic distribution (relatively low concentration of values around the mean).…”
In Brazil, the production of corn and soybeans has been growing significantly in recent years. Considering that the strategies for investing in the production of these crops are conditioned by production costs and risk, the objective of this article is to propose a simulation model that indicates the trend of production costs for these commodities, considering the dispersion and correlation of selected key variable prices and corn and soybean production costs practiced between the years of 2018 and 2022. Fifty specialized companies in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, provided data for this study, and Monte Carlo simulations showed that the total cost of corn production/ha is between USD 600.00 and USD 1150.00, with a level of certainty of 84.7%, and soybeans are in the range of USD 260.00 to USD 420.00, with a level of certainty of 86.4%. The model evidenced a trend of decreasing production costs for the crops for the 2023/24 and 2024/25 harvests, as the input with the greatest impact (fertilizer) is showing a downward trend. On the other hand, costs related to labor, soybean seed, and fungicides are showing an upward trend, while dolomitic limestone corrective remains stable.
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