Influence of the NAO on Wintertime Surface Air Temperature over East Asia: Multidecadal Variability and Decadal Prediction

Li, Jianping; Xie, Tiejun; Tang, Xinxin; Wang, Hao; Sun, Cheng; Feng, Juan; Zheng, Fei; Ding, Ruiqiang

doi:10.1007/s00376-021-1075-1

Cited by 38 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 98 publications

(102 reference statements)

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“…The analysis of this research focuses on decadal scale, so a 7-year running mean is used to low-pass filtering. Time series after low-pass filtered could have high autocorrelation so that the number of effective degrees of freedom (N eff ) is applied and can be theoretically estimated by the following formula (Pyper and Peterman, 1998;Xie et al, 2019;Li et al, 2022):…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature on decadal variability of the July precipitation in north China

Xie

Wang

Zhang

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The north China July precipitation (NCJP) accounts for the largest proportion of annual total precipitation in north China and displays a significant decadal variability of a cycle about 20‐year at least from the past 40 years. There is a significant negative correlation between the July northern North Atlantic sea surface temperature (NNASST) and NCJP on decadal scale. When the detrended July NNASST anomaly is in negative phase, the NCJP anomaly is in positive phase, and vice versa. We present the coupled oceanic–atmospheric bridge (COAB) mechanism of the July NNASST influences on NCJP decadal variability via the Eurasian decadal teleconnection (EAT) pattern: the NNASST stimulates the EAT pattern which regulates circulation anomalies in north China and its surrounding regions, and finally regulates precipitation anomalies in north China by influencing the local water vapour transport. In addition, a preliminary analysis about the causes of the super‐abnormal NCJP in 2021 indicates that the super‐abnormal NCJP in 2021 is not just the decadal role of the NNASST on NCJP, may be the combined influence of the WPSH in the northeastern of north China, the abnormal high pressure in the northwest and the low‐pressure cyclone in the south in the rainy decadal background.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature on decadal variability of the July precipitation in north China

Xie

Wang

Zhang

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Such as, the Atlantic multidecadal variability can affect the climate change in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere and play an important role in multidecadal variability of temperature (Si et al, 2020;Wang et al, 2013). The interannual and multidecadal air temperature variabilities in East Asian are also found to be highly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, especially for winter time (Li et al, 2022;Liu et al, 2019). In addition, the climate variability in China and even East Asia are largely affected by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (Lang et al, 2003).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Day‐to‐Day Temperature Variability in China During Last 60 Years Relative to Arctic Oscillation

Wang

Qin

2022

Earth and Space Science

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Day‐to‐day (DTD) temperature variability is an important characteristic of air temperature and is closely related to the economy, ecology, and human health. According to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the air temperature has increased particularly during the most recent decades. However, the temporal and spatial variations of DTD temperature variability have not been fully addressed. In this study, the DTD temperature variability is calculated using observed air temperature from meteorological stations in China. The regional and seasonal performances are evaluated among different climate regions and half‐year periods. In addition, the relationship between DTD temperature variability and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is evaluated. The national mean DTD temperature variability in 1961–2020 during the warming (cooling) half‐year was 1.8°C (1.5°C), with minimum (maximum) values occurring in the southwestern (northeastern) regions of mainland China. Negative correlation was found between DTD temperature variability and the AO, particularly during the warming half‐year in the northern region. The national mean trends of DTD temperature variability were −0.003°C and −0.007°C per decade during warming and cooling half‐years, respectively, indicating that the inter‐day variation is decreasing under the background of global warming, which may be ecologically beneficial. These results could be of great significance in understanding temperature change and can be used to quantify land–atmosphere interaction and climate change.

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“…Thus, the effective degrees of freedom for the samples must be considered when computing statistics (Bretherton et al 1999). In this method, the effective degrees of freedom for significance tests with autocorrelations sequences XX (j) and YY (j) are derived as follows (Li et al , 2021Pyper and Peterman 1998):…”

Section: The Nlle Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating decadal variations of the seasonal predictability limit of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific

Hou

Ding

et al. 2022

Clim Dyn

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El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have a worldwide impact on seasonal to yearly climate. However, there are decadal variations in the seasonal prediction skill of ENSO in dynamical and statistical models; in particular, ENSO prediction skill has declined since 2000. The shortcomings of models mean that it is very important to study ENSO seasonal predictability and its decadal variation using observational/reanalysis data. Here we quantitatively estimate the seasonal predictability limit (PL) of ENSO from 1900 to 2015 using Nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) theory with an observational/reanalysis dataset and explore its decadal variations. The mean PL of sea surface temperature (SST) is high in the central/eastern tropical Pacific and low in the western tropical Pacific, reaching 12–15 and 7–8 months, respectively. The PL in the tropical Pacific varies on a decadal timescale, with an interdecadal standard deviation of up to 2 months in the central tropical Pacific that has similar spatial structure to the mean PL. Taking the PL of SST in the Niño 3.4 region as representative of the PL in the central/eastern tropical Pacific, there are clearly higher values in the 1900s, mid-1930s, mid-1960s, and mid-1990s, and lower values in the 1920s, mid-1940s, and mid-2010s. Meanwhile, the PL of SST in the Niño 6 region—whose average value is 7 months—is in good agreement with the PL of most regions in the western tropical Pacific, with higher values in the 1910s, 1940s, and 1980s and lower values in the 1930s, 1950s, and mid-1990s. In the framework of NLLE theory, the PL is determined by the error growth rate (representing the dissipation rate of the predictable signal) and the saturation value of relative error (representing predictable signal intensity). We reveal that the spatial structure of the mean PL in the tropical Pacific is determined mainly by the error growth rate. The decadal variability of PL is affected more by the variation of the saturation value of relative error in the equatorial Pacific, whereas the error growth rate cannot be ignored in the PL of some regions. As an important source of predictability in ENSO dynamics, the relationship between warm water volume and SST in the Niño 3.4 region has a critical role in the decadal variability of PL in the tropical Pacific through the error growth rate and saturation value of relative error. This strong relationship reduces the error growth rate in the initial period and increases the saturated relative error, contributing to the high PL.

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Influence of the NAO on Wintertime Surface Air Temperature over East Asia: Multidecadal Variability and Decadal Prediction

Cited by 38 publications

References 98 publications

Influence of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature on decadal variability of the July precipitation in north China

Influence of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature on decadal variability of the July precipitation in north China

Day‐to‐Day Temperature Variability in China During Last 60 Years Relative to Arctic Oscillation

Investigating decadal variations of the seasonal predictability limit of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific

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