Influence of stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation on tropical cyclone tracks in the western North Pacific

Ho, Chang-Hoi; Kim, Hyeong‐Seog; Jeong, Jee‐Hoon; Son, Seok‐Woo

doi:10.1029/2009gl037163

Cited by 92 publications

(78 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Moreover, the central Pacific El Niño (also known as El Niño Modoki) events [Ashok et al, 2007] are shown to shift the TC formation westward to the western Pacific . In addition, the variations of TC frequency are also related to other factors, for example, the quasi-biennial oscillation in the stratosphere [Chan, 1995;Ho et al, 2009], winter or spring sea ice cover over the North Pacific [Fan, 2007a], the North Pacific oscillation , the Antarctic Oscillation , Hadley circulation and the sea surface temperature (SST) near Australia [Zhou and Cui, 2008;Zhou and Cui, 2011], and the boreal summer SST anomalies in the eastern Indian Ocean [Zhan et al, 2011].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A dynamical‐statistical forecast model for the annual frequency of western Pacific tropical cyclones based on the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

Yang

Wang

et al. 2013

JGR Atmospheres

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A dynamical‐statistical forecast model for the annual tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific is developed based on the empirical relationship between the actual annual number of tropical cyclones (ANTCs) and the dynamical predictions of large‐scale variables by the Climate Forecast System version 2 of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). On interannual time scales, the ANTCs are significantly and negatively correlated with the July–October tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature, tropical western Pacific vertical zonal wind shear (WPVZWS), and subtropical Pacific geopotential height at 500 hPa (HGT500). They are also positively correlated with the zonal wind at 850 hPa over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Skillful forecasts of the above four potential predictors are made with the 24‐member ensemble predictions by the NCEP model. The two‐predictor model with the HGT500 and the WPVZWS shows the most skillful hindcasts at 0–2 month leads assessed by the leave‐one‐out cross validation for the ANTCs over the 31 year record between 1982 and 2012. The corresponding correlation coefficients and the root‐mean‐square errors (RMSEs) between the observed and hindcast ANTCs are in the ranges from 0.73 to 0.79 and from 3.11 to 2.75, respectively. Observed ANTCs during El Niño–Southern Oscillation events are generally well captured with RMSEs ranging from 3.12 to 3.04 during El Niño years and from 3.62 to 2.44 during La Niña years. The forecast skill of the model for the past 10 years (2003–2012) is competitive with the current forecast schemes. The forecast model initialized in March, May, and June 2013 suggests an inactive season for 2013, with about 22 tropical cyclones.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A dynamical‐statistical forecast model for the annual frequency of western Pacific tropical cyclones based on the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

Yang

Wang

et al. 2013

JGR Atmospheres

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“…Finally, the QBO directly influences the vertical wind shear in the tropics thus influencing, for example, tropical tropopause temperatures and static stability (the 'tropical route'). There is both modelling and observational evidence for a QBO signal in the characteristics of deep tropical convection and precipitation (Giorgetta et al 1999;10 Collimore et al 2003;Ho et al 2009;Liess and Geller 2012;Son et al 2017). …”

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confidence: 99%

“…An improved ability to simulate stratospheric processes and their impact on surface weather and climate has the potential to improve seasonal and decadal-scale forecasts of surface weather patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation 20 (NAO; Marshall and Scaife 2009;Scaife et al 2016). Similarly, the direct impact of the QBO on the underlying tropospheric circulation in the tropics and sub-tropics is of interest (Giorgetta et al 1999;Collimore et al 2003;Ho et al 2009;Liess and Geller 2012;Nie and Sobel 2015) and recent studies have shown that the QBO modulates the amplitude of the Madden Julian Oscillation, which may lead to improved predictability of MJO under QBO-E conditions Marshall et al 2016;Son et al 2017;Nishimoto and Yoden 2017). 25 One mechanism for QBO influence at the surface is through the modulation of planetary wave propagation in winter by refraction or horizontal reflection of the waves towards (away from) high latitudes under QBO-E (QBO-W) conditions (Holton and Tan 1980;Garfinkel et al 2012;Watson and Gray 2014;White et al 2015).…”

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confidence: 99%

Surface impacts of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation

Gray¹,

Anstey²,

Kawatani³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract.Teleconnections between the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the Northern Hemisphere zonally-averaged zonal winds, mean sea level pressure (mslp) and tropical precipitation are explored using regression analysis. A novel technique is introduced to separate responses associated with the stratospheric polar vortex from other underlying mechanisms. A previously reported mslp response in January, with a pattern that resembles the positive phase of the North 15Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) under QBO westerly conditions, is confirmed and found to be primarily associated with a QBO modulation of the stratospheric polar vortex. This mid-winter response is relatively insensitive to the exact height of the maximum QBO westerlies and a maximum response occurs with westerlies over a relatively deep range between 10-70hPa.Two additional mslp responses are reported, in early winter (December) and late winter (February / March). In contrast to the January response the early and late winter responses show maximum sensitivity to the QBO winds at ~20 hPa and ~70 20 hPa but are relatively insensitive to the QBO winds in between (~50 hPa). The late winter response is centred over the North Pacific and is associated with QBO influence from the lowermost stratosphere at tropical / subtropical latitudes. The early winter response consists of anomalies over both the North Pacific and Europe, but the mechanism is unclear and requires further investigation. QBO anomalies are found in tropical precipitation amounts and a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone under westerly QBO conditions is also evident. 25

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“…He explained that the westerly phase of the QBO creates an environment of relatively low vertical wind shear in favour of TC formation. Ho et al (2009) later found that, during the westerly (easterly) phase of the QBO, more TCs approach the East China Sea (the eastern shore of Japan). Therefore, the negative correlation between the QBO index and TC activity in the vicinity of Taiwan is carried over into the negative correlation with streamflow.…”

Section: Evidence Of Strong Correlationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variations in the correlation between teleconnections and Taiwan's streamflow

Chen

Lee

2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Interannual variations in catchment streamflow represent an integrated response to anomalies in regional moisture transport and atmospheric circulations and are ultimately linked to large-scale climate oscillations. This study conducts correlation analysis to calculate how summertime (July–September, JAS) streamflow data derived at 28 upstream and 13 downstream gauges in Taiwan correlate with 14 teleconnection indices in the current or preceding seasons. We find that the western Pacific (WP) and Pacific–Japan (PJ) patterns, both of which play a critical role in determining cyclonic activity in the western North Pacific basin, exhibit the highest concurrent correlations (most significant r = 0. 50) with the JAS flows in Taiwan. Alternatively, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) averaged over the period from the previous October to June of the current year is significantly correlated with the JAS flows (most significant r = −0. 66), indicating some forecasting utility. By further examining the correlation results using a 20-year moving window, peculiar temporal variations and possible climate regime shifts (CRSs) can be revealed. A CRS test is employed to identify suspicious and abrupt changes in the correlation. The late 1970s and 1990s are identified as two significant change points. During the intermediate period, Taiwan's streamflow and the PJ index exhibit a marked in-phase relationship (r > 0. 8). It is verified that the two shifts are in concordance with the alteration of large-scale circulations in the Pacific basin by investigating the changes in pattern correlation and composite maps before and after the change point. Our results suggest that empirical forecasting techniques should take into account the effect of CRSs on predictor screening.

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Influence of stratospheric quasi‐biennial oscillation on tropical cyclone tracks in the western North Pacific

Cited by 92 publications

References 19 publications

A dynamical‐statistical forecast model for the annual frequency of western Pacific tropical cyclones based on the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

A dynamical‐statistical forecast model for the annual frequency of western Pacific tropical cyclones based on the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2

Surface impacts of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation

Variations in the correlation between teleconnections and Taiwan's streamflow

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