Influence of meteorological variables on dengue incidence in the municipality of Arapiraca, Alagoas, Brazil

Abstract

Introduction: Meteorological influences along with the lack of basic sanitation has contributed to disease outbreaks, resulting in large socio-economic losses, especially in terms of dengue. This study aimed to evaluate the meteorological influences on the monthly incidence of dengue in Arapiraca-AL, Brazil during 2008-2015. Methods: We used generalized linear models constructed via logistic regression to assess the association between the monthly incidence of dengue (MID) of and 8 meteorological variables [rainfall (R), air temperature (AT), dew point temperature (DPT), relative humidity (RH), pressure surface, wind speed (WS), wind direction (WD), and gust], based on data obtained from DATASUS and meteorological station databases, respectively. The dengue-1 model included R, AT, DPT, and RH and the dengue-2 model included AT, DPT, RH, WS, and WD. A MID >100 (classified as moderate incidence) indicated an abnormal month. Results: Based on the dengue-1 model, variables with the highest odds ratio included R-lag1, DPT-lag1, and AT-lag1 with a 10.1, 18.3, and 26.7 times greater probability of a moderate MID, respectively. Based on the dengue-2 model, variables with the highest odds ratio were AT-lag1 and RH-lag0 indicating an 8.9 and 18.1 times greater probability of a moderate MID, respectively. Conclusions: AT, DPT, R, RH and WS influenced the occurrence of a moderate MID.

Meteorological factors affecting dengue incidence in Davao, Philippines

“…Beyond a dew point temperature of 25.3 °C, risks were apparently increasing. Similar observations of significant relationship by dew point on dengue incidence was observed in Brazil [ 64 ]. Mechanisms of how dew point affects dengue incidence maybe related to that of the mechanisms posed by humidity.…”

Factors associated with the occurrence of dengue epidemics in Brazil: a systematic review

“…More than half of the studies showed an association or positive correlation between climatic and/or meteorological variables and the dengue incidence. Precipitation ( 6 , 10 , 12 , 14 , 18 , 20 - 24 ), was the predominant factor, followed by temperature ( 12 , 16 , 20 , 24 - 28 ), relative air humidity ( 24 , 29 ), wind direction and speed ( 24 ), and average sunspots per month ( 16 ).…”

Diagnóstico dos Casos de Dengue nas Capitais do Nordeste do Brasil entre 2000 e 2017

“…Conforme verificado na Tabela 2, Fortaleza (Figura 2a) se destaca com o maior número de notificações anuais, superiores a 30 mil casos, nos anos de 2008, 2011, 2012 (SILVA, 2017;CORREIA FILHO et al, 2019). Portanto, esse fator pode influenciar de maneira indireta o aumento no número de notificações de dengue (CORREIA FILHO, 2017;LYRA et al, 2017;SILVA, 2017;SANTOS et al, 2018).…”

“…A transmissão de doenças por arbovíroses geralmente está associada às características ambientais, climáticas e sociais, principalmente em países tropicais (CORREIA FILHO, 2017;. O termo Arbovírus é uma expressão inglesa "ARthropodBOrneVIRUSes" denominada para um grupo de vírus encontrados na natureza, ao qual é mantido no ambiente através da transmissão biológica entre hospedeiros vertebrados e artrópodes hematófagos como mosquitos (Aedes aegypti e Aedes albopictus) e carrapatos, entre outros (CRUZ; VASCONCELOS, 2008;CASSEB et al, 2013;WHO, 2018).…”

“…Além desses fatores, a ineficiência do saneamento básico eleva a distribuição geográfica e a abundância sazonal de doenças vetoriais (BARCELLOS et al, 2009). De acordo com Forattini (2002) a dinâmica sazonal do vetor (o mosquito) está comumente associada à variabilidade climática, em virtude das variações de temperatura, da umidade relativa do ar e no regime de chuvas (BARCELLOS et al, 2009;CORREIA FILHO et al, 2017;WHO, 2018). Durante o período de transição entre verão e outono, estas condições favorecem ao aumento no número de criadouros disponíveis e no desenvolvimento do vetor (RIBEIRO et al, 2006;LIMA et al, 2008;BARCELLOS et al, 2009).…”