Excessive production
of biomass, in times of intensification of
agriculture and climate change, is again becoming one of the biggest
environmental issues. Identification of sources and effects of this
phenomenon in a river catchment in the space–time continuum
has been supported by advanced environmental modules combined on a
digital platform (Macromodel DNS/SWAT). This tool enabled the simulation
of nutrient loads and chlorophyll “a” for the Nielba
River catchment (central-western Poland) for the biomass production
potential (defined here as a TN:TP ratio) analysis. Major differences
have been observed between sections of the Nielba River with low biomass
production in the upper part, controlled by TN:TP ratios over 65,
and high chlorophyll “a” concentrations in the lower
part, affected by biomass transport for the flow-through lakes. Under
the long and short-term RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios,
this pattern will be emphasized. The obtained results showed that
unfavorable biomass production potential will be maintained in the
upper riverine sections due to a further increase in phosphorus loads
induced by precipitation growth. Precipitation alone will increase
biomass production, while precipitation combined with temperature
can even enhance this production in the existing hot spots.