A typical meteorological year (TMY) for Poland was developed in 2004, on the basis of climatic data collected from 1971 to 2000. Due to the observed tendency of global warming, the buildings’ energy performance obtained with the use of TMY may differ from the actual heating and cooling demand. This research compares energy demand calculated using TMY and climatic data collected from 2001 to 2012. Calculations were made by means of a simulation computer program, designed for dynamic analyses of buildings and installation systems. The analyses concerned typical living quarters in a multifamily residential building located in Warsaw. According to the results, TMY is useful for estimating the heating demand of existing buildings. Cooling demand calculated with the use of TMY was, however, up to 37% lower in comparison with the mean cooling demand for subsequent years. This may distort the energy needs and indoor environment conditions in summer, and create discomfort while using existing and new buildings.
Practical application: The paper presents comparison between energy demand calculated with the use of typical meteorological year (TMY) based on the climatic data from the period of 1971 to 2000, and real climatic data from subsequent 12 years, 2001–2012. There is substantial difference in the results presenting cooling demand in buildings evaluated with the use of both datasets. Unless national energy certification procedures are updated, this may cause serious faults in building design, due to incorrect assessment of internal conditions in new and existing buildings, and higher than expected energy use in summer.
Excessive production
of biomass, in times of intensification of
agriculture and climate change, is again becoming one of the biggest
environmental issues. Identification of sources and effects of this
phenomenon in a river catchment in the space–time continuum
has been supported by advanced environmental modules combined on a
digital platform (Macromodel DNS/SWAT). This tool enabled the simulation
of nutrient loads and chlorophyll “a” for the Nielba
River catchment (central-western Poland) for the biomass production
potential (defined here as a TN:TP ratio) analysis. Major differences
have been observed between sections of the Nielba River with low biomass
production in the upper part, controlled by TN:TP ratios over 65,
and high chlorophyll “a” concentrations in the lower
part, affected by biomass transport for the flow-through lakes. Under
the long and short-term RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios,
this pattern will be emphasized. The obtained results showed that
unfavorable biomass production potential will be maintained in the
upper riverine sections due to a further increase in phosphorus loads
induced by precipitation growth. Precipitation alone will increase
biomass production, while precipitation combined with temperature
can even enhance this production in the existing hot spots.
Typical Meteorological Years (TMY) were prepared in Poland due to the introduction of obligatory energy certification for buildings. They are based on source data collected by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management from 1971 to 2000. Predictions indicate that until the end of the 21st century, the air temperature will increase. Therefore, the characteristics obtained with the use of TMY may differ from the energy demand of buildings used nowadays. This article compares energy demand calculated with the use of TMY and subsequent climatic data from 2001 to 2012, for three different locations in Poland. The analyses were performed with the use of the dynamic simulation computer program, for typical living quarters in a multifamily residential building with different construction and window orientation. Results obtained with the use of TMY and subsequent climatic data show that the typical years can be used for the evaluation of heating demand. However, cooling demand calculated with the use of TMY was significantly lower in comparison with the mean cooling demand for the years 2001-2012. This may distort the energy needs and indoor environment conditions in summer, and cause discomfort or unnecessary energy use in presently occupied dwellings.
Purpose
The study tracks spatial and temporal distribution of sediment particles from their source to the deposition area in a dammed reservoir. This is particularly important due to the predicted future climate changes, which will increase the severity of problems with sediment transport, especially in catchments prone to erosion.
Methods
Analyses were performed with a monthly step for two mineral and one mineral/organic sediment fractions delivered from the Carpathian Mts. catchment (Raba River) to the drinking water reservoir (Dobczyce) by combining SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), and AdH/PTM (Adaptive Hydraulics Model/Particle Tracking Model) modules on the digital platform—Macromodel DNS (Discharge Nutrient Sea). To take into account future changes in this catchment, a variant scenario analysis including RCP (representative concentration pathways) 4.5 and 8.5, and land use change forecasts, was performed.
Results
The differences between the two analyzed hydrological units (catchment and reservoir) have been highlighted and showed a large variability of the sediment load between months. The predicted climate changes will cause a significant increase of mineral fraction loads (silt and clay) during months with high flows. Due to the location and natural arrangement of the reservoir, silt particles will mainly affect faster loss of the first two reservoir zones capacities.
Conclusions
The increased mobility of finer particles (clay) in the reservoir may be more problematic in the future, mainly due to their binding pollutant properties, and the possible negative impact on drinking water abstraction from the last reservoir zone. Moreover, the study shows that the monthly approach to forecasting the impact of climate change on sediment loads in the reservoir is recommended, instead of a seasonal one.
Currently, climate change is considered as an important factor affecting
nutrient loads introduced through riverine systems into the Baltic Sea.
Although the prospect of a large increase in pollution has long seemed
very real, it still does not translate into planning of effective
remedial actions. One of the factors limiting the development of such
activities is the scale of simulations, focusing generally on catchment
outlet profiles. To fill this gap and enable a step forward in
understanding responses towards future predictions in a higher
resolution scale (subcatchment), we assessed nutrient load contribution
using calculation profiles localised along a main watercourse and its
tributaries. To track spatial and seasonal changes of total nitrogen and
phosphorus under short- and long-term (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) climate change
scenarios we used the digital platform Macromodel DNS/SWAT. Having at
our disposal a catchment model with a good performance we could follow
not only total load changes in particular subcatchments, but also track
localisation of the pollution sources and their direct impact on load
estimations. Our results showed an increase of the loads, especially
from the agricultural landuse type, up to 34% for TN and 85% for TP in
the most extreme scenario. Moreover, forest areas have been noted as
highly reactive to the climate changes, and through their localisation
able to distinctly alter nutrient outflow. Finally, the contribution of
urban areas should be further investigated since the dynamics of
nitrogen and phosphorus release from impervious surfaces is noticeably
different here than from the other diffuse sources.
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