Inferring maximum magnitudes from the ordered sequence of large earthquakes

Abstract

The largest magnitude earthquake in a sequence is often used as a proxy for hazard estimates, as consequences are often predominately from this single event (in small seismic zones). In this article, the concept of order statistics is adapted to infer the maximum magnitude ( M M A X ) of an earthquake catalogue. A suite tools developed here can discern M M A X influences through hypothesis testing, quantify M M A X through maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) or select the best M M A X prediction amongst several models. The efficacy of these tools is benchmarked against synthetic and real-data tests, demonstrating their utility. Ultimately, 13 cases of induced seismicity spanning wastewater disposal, hydraulic fracturing and enhanced geothermal systems are tested for volume-based M M A X . I find that there is no evidence of volume-based processes influencing any of these cases. On the contrary, all these cases are adequately explained by an unbounded magnitude distribution. This is significant because it suggests that induced earthquake hazards should also be treated as unbounded. On the other hand, if bounded cases exist, then the tools developed here will be able to discern them, potentially changing how an operator mitigates these hazards. Overall, this suite of tools will be important for better-understanding earthquakes and managing their risks. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Induced seismicity in coupled subsurface systems’.