Infection Rates by Dengue Virus in Mosquitoes and the Influence of Temperature May Be Related to Different Endemicity Patterns in Three Colombian Cities

Abstract

Colombia is an endemic country for dengue fever where the four serotypes of virus dengue (DENV1–4) circulate simultaneously, and all types are responsible for dengue cases in the country. The control strategies are guided by entomological surveillance. However, heterogeneity in aedic indices is not well correlated with the incidence of the disease in cities such as Riohacha, Bello and Villavicencio. As an alternative, molecular detection of dengue virus in mosquitoes has been proposed as a useful tool for epidemiological surveillance and identification of serotypes circulating in field. We conducted a spatiotemporal fieldwork in these cities to capture adult mosquitoes to assess vector infection and explain the differences between Breteau indices and disease incidence. DENV infection in females and DENV serotype identification were evaluated and infection rates (IR) were estimated. The relationship between density, dengue cases and vector index was also estimated with logistic regression modeling and Pearson’s correlation coefficient. The lack of association between aedic indices and dengue incidence is in agreement with the weak associations between the density of the mosquitoes and their infection with DENV in the three cities. However, association was evident between the IR and dengue cases in Villavicencio. Furthermore, we found important negative associations between temperature and lag time from two to six weeks in Riohacha. We conclude that density of mosquitoes is not a good predictor of dengue cases. Instead, IR and temperature might explain better such heterogeneity.

Estimating Effects of Temperature on Dengue Transmission in Colombian Cities

“…In agreement with this, we recently reported that temperature differentially affects the DENV infection of mosquitoes in 3 Colombian cities. 21 We found that high temperatures in the city of Riohacha negatively affected infection by DENV, whereas in Bello and Villavicencio municipalities, which have lower average temperatures, DENV infection rates in mosquitoes were positively associated with a gradual increase in temperature. 21 As with any mosquitoborne virus, infection rates in the mosquito population are necessarily tied to transmission to the human population.…”

Thermal biology of mosquito‐borne disease

“…Field‐based empirical support for positive temperature – disease relationships is widespread (e.g., Alonso et al ; Mena et al ; Stewart‐Ibarra & Lowe ; Siraj et al ; Lowe et al ), but support for unimodal responses or declines at high temperatures is more limited. However, emerging field evidence supports unimodal relationships with temperature, including declines at high temperatures, for dengue incidence and Aedes aegypti abundance in Colombia (Peña‐García et al , ), for chikungunya incidence in the Americas (Perkins et al ), for malaria incidence in Kenya and across Africa (Mordecai et al in review; Shah et al in press), for West Nile disease in the United States (Fig. ; Shocket et al ), and for the vectors of malaria, dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, Zika, leishmaniasis, and Chagas disease in Ecuador (Escobar et al ).…”

Prevalence of dengue, Zika and chikungunya viruses in Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) in a medium-sized city, Amazon, Brazil

“…Moreover, according to Pena-Garcia et al 31 , density of mosquitoes is not a good predictor of dengue cases. Instead, mosquito infection rates can better explain the dengue heterogeneity, helping to predict infections up to six weeks before the onset of cases.…”