Estimating Effects of Temperature on Dengue Transmission in Colombian Cities

Peña-García, Víctor Hugo; Triana-Chávez, Omar; Arboleda-Sánchez, Sair

doi:10.1016/j.aogh.2017.10.011

Cited by 28 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Human cases of WNV [49][50][51][52][53][54][55] and SINV [56,57] are often positively associated with temperature. Here, we found incidence of neuro-invasive WNV disease responded unimodally to temperature across counties in the US (Fig 8), adding to prior evidence for reduced transmission of WNV [58] and other mosquito-borne diseases [2,[15][16][17] at high temperatures. However, we could not detect lower or upper thermal limits at this scale (Fig 8).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

“…Mechanistic models based on these traits and guided by principles of thermal biology predict that the thermal response of transmission is unimodal: transmission peaks at intermediate temperatures and is inhibited at extreme cold and hot temperatures [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. This unimodal pattern is predicted consistently across mosquito-borne diseases [2][3][4][5][6][7] and supported by independent empirical evidence for positive relationships between temperature and human cases in many settings [5,[12][13][14][15], but negative relationships at extremely high temperatures in other studies [2,[15][16][17]. Accordingly, increasing temperatures due to climate change are expected to shift disease distributions geographically and seasonally, as warming should increase transmission in cooler settings but decrease it in settings near or above the optimum for transmission [18][19][20][21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 89%

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Transmission of West Nile and other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at intermediate environmental temperatures

Shocket

Verwillow

Numazu

et al. 2019

Preprint

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WORDS)Temperature is a key driver of mosquito-borne disease because it affects the physiology and life history traits of mosquitoes and the pathogens they transmit. These trait thermal responses are typically nonlinear and vary by species. However, the impact of temperature on many important temperate mosquito-borne diseases has never been quantified, and it is unclear if thermal responses of temperate mosquito-borne diseases differ systematically from the patterns found in better-studied tropical systems. These environment-transmission relationships are critical for understanding current seasonal and geographic distributions of disease and future shifts due to climate change. We used a mechanistic, trait-based approach to characterize temperature-dependent transmission of 10 vector-pathogen pairs in an overlapping network of mosquitoes (Culex pipiens, Cx. quinquefascsiatus, Cx. tarsalis, Aedes triseriatus, and others) and viruses (West Nile virus [WNV], Eastern and Western Equine Encephalitis viruses [EEEV and WEEV], St. Louis Encephalitis virus [SLEV], Sindbis virus [SINV], and Rift Valley Fever virus[RVFV]), most of which have predominantly temperate geographic distributions worldwide. We found that several of these temperate pathogens have lower thermal limits (8.6-19.0ºC) and optima (22.7-26.0ºC) that are cooler than those of tropical pathogens (lower thermal limits:16.2-22.8ºC; optima: 25.4-29.1ºC), as expected based on geography. However, their upper thermal limits (31.9-37.8ºC) were very similar to those of tropical pathogens (31.4-34.5ºC).Together, these patterns led to wider thermal breadths (NUMºC) for several of the temperate viruses compared to most tropical pathogens (NUMºC). Among temperate viruses, thermal limits for transmission varied more and were more uncertain than the optima. While the qualitative shapes of trait thermal responses generally matched prior studies, lifespan declined monotonically at temperatures above 14ºC for the temperate Culex vectors, in contrast to 4 unimodal responses observed within this temperature range for tropical species. We validated the mechanistic models with independent data on human disease cases. The incidence of WNV across US counties responded unimodally to temperature and peaked at 23.9ºC, closely matching model predictions (optima for WNV in North American vectors ranged from 23.9-25.2ºC).Additionally, data on the month of onset of cases of WNV, SLEV, and EEEV suggested that temperature is important for determining the seasonality of transmission. The thermal responses for parasite development rate, vector competence, biting rate, and lifespan, all of which varied among species and determined thermal limits in models, are a critical need for future empirical work. Because temperature effects on vector-borne disease transmission are pervasive and nonlinear, and climate regimes are changing rapidly, trait-based models are a key tool for predicting how temperature will affect mosquito-borne disease dynamics. 5

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 72%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 89%

Transmission of West Nile and other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at intermediate environmental temperatures

Shocket

Verwillow

Numazu

et al. 2019

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…A nonlinear mechanistic model is critical for estimating temperature impacts on transmission because the effect of increasing temperature by a few degrees can have a positive, negligible, or negative impact on R 0 along different parts of the thermal response curve. Although field-based evidence for unimodal thermal responses in vector-borne disease is rare (but see Mordecai et al, 2013 ; Perkins et al, 2015 ; Peña-García et al, 2017 ), there is some evidence for high temperatures constraining RRV transmission and vector populations: outbreaks were less likely with more days above 35°C in part of Queensland ( Gatton et al, 2005 ) and populations of Cx. annulirostris peaked at 25°C and declined above 32°C in Victoria ( Dhileepan, 1996 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Transmission requires that mosquitoes be abundant, bite a host and ingest an infectious bloodmeal, survive long enough for pathogen development and within-host migration (the extrinsic incubation period), and bite additional hosts—all processes that depend on temperature ( Mordecai et al, 2013 , Mordecai et al, 2017 ). Although both mechanistic ( Mordecai et al, 2013 , Mordecai et al, 2017 ; Liu-Helmersson et al, 2014 ; Wesolowski et al, 2015 ; Paull et al, 2017 ) and statistical models ( Perkins et al, 2015 ; Siraj et al, 2015 ; Paull et al, 2017 ; Peña-García et al, 2017 ) support the impact of temperature on mosquito-borne disease, important knowledge gaps remain. First, how the impact of temperature on transmission differs across diseases, via what mechanisms, and the types of data needed to characterize these differences all remain uncertain.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…First, how the impact of temperature on transmission differs across diseases, via what mechanisms, and the types of data needed to characterize these differences all remain uncertain. Second, the impacts of temperature on transmission can appear idiosyncratic—varying in both magnitude and direction—across locations and studies ( Gatton et al, 2005 ; Jacups et al, 2008a ; Stewart-Ibarra and Lowe, 2013 ; Peña-García et al, 2017 ; Koolhof et al, 2017 ). Although inferring causality from field observations and statistical approaches alone remains challenging, nonlinear thermal biology may mechanistically explain this variation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Temperature explains broad patterns of Ross River virus transmission

Shocket

Ryan

Mordecai

2018

eLife

126

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Thermal biology predicts that vector-borne disease transmission peaks at intermediate temperatures and declines at high and low temperatures. However, thermal optima and limits remain unknown for most vector-borne pathogens. We built a mechanistic model for the thermal response of Ross River virus, an important mosquito-borne pathogen in Australia, Pacific Islands, and potentially at risk of emerging worldwide. Transmission peaks at moderate temperatures (26.4°C) and declines to zero at thermal limits (17.0 and 31.5°C). The model accurately predicts that transmission is year-round endemic in the tropics but seasonal in temperate areas, resulting in the nationwide seasonal peak in human cases. Climate warming will likely increase transmission in temperate areas (where most Australians live) but decrease transmission in tropical areas where mean temperatures are already near the thermal optimum. These results illustrate the importance of nonlinear models for inferring the role of temperature in disease dynamics and predicting responses to climate change.

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Spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue in Colombia in relation to the combined effects of local climate and ENSO

et al. 2021

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Estimating Effects of Temperature on Dengue Transmission in Colombian Cities

Abstract: Climatic variables related to temperature affect dengue epidemiology in different way. According to the temperature of each city, transmission might be positively or negatively affected.

Cited by 28 publications

References 30 publications

Transmission of West Nile and other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at intermediate environmental temperatures

Transmission of West Nile and other temperate mosquito-borne viruses peaks at intermediate environmental temperatures

Temperature explains broad patterns of Ross River virus transmission

Spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue in Colombia in relation to the combined effects of local climate and ENSO

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