Infection fatality ratio and case fatality ratio of COVID-19

Luo, Guangze; Zhang, Xingyue; Zheng, Hua; He, Daihai

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2021.10.004

Cited by 29 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Italy and Germany have higher IFR values than other regions, while Singapore is considered the lowest. This result shows that even though the simple formula was claimed to underestimate the true IFR [45], the general pattern for the observed ten countries resulted in consistent results [34].…”

Section: Estimated ω(T)supporting

confidence: 54%

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A Prospective Method for Generating COVID-19 Dynamics

et al. 2022

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Generating dynamic operators are constructed here from the cumulative case function to recover all state dynamics of a Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered (SEIR) model for COVID-19 transmission. In this study, recorded and unrecorded EIRs and a time-dependent infection rate are taken into account to accommodate immeasurable control and intervention processes. Generating dynamic operators are built and implemented on the cumulative cases. All infection processes, which are hidden in this cumulative function, can be recovered entirely by implementing the generating operators. Direct implementation of the operators on the cumulative function gives all recorded state dynamics. Further, the unrecorded daily infection rate is estimated from the ratio between IFR and CFR. The remaining dynamics of unrecorded states are directly obtained from the generating operators. The simulations are conducted using infection data provided by Worldometers from ten selected countries. It is shown that the higher number of daily PCR tests contributed directly to reducing the effective reproduction ratio. The simulations of all state dynamics, infection rates, and effective reproduction ratios for several countries in the first and second waves of transmissions are presented. This method directly measures daily transmission indicators, which can be effectively used for the day-to-day control of the epidemic.

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Section: Estimated ω(T)supporting

confidence: 54%

“…, is evaluated by utilizing the data retrieved from Worldometer [37]. On the other hand, the estimation of IFR is obtained by first estimating the number of total infections using Equation (45), implementing the data of total tests performed by each country that is publicly provided by OurWorldinData [31].…”

Section: Estimated ω(T)mentioning

confidence: 99%

A Prospective Method for Generating COVID-19 Dynamics

et al. 2022

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“…The assessment of the COVID-19 infection-fatality rate (IFR) is notoriously difficult and attempts have been made to calculate its value with more or less success [38][39][40][41]. For instance, Irons and Raftery [41] estimated that the real number of infected people is likely to be at least twice as high as the official number of cases.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of the Highly Virulent SARS-CoV-2 Gamma Variant on Young Adults in the State of São Paulo: Was It Inevitable?

Spira¹

2022

Cureus

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BackgroundThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had and is still having a tremendous impact on people all over the world, but it has been particularly harsh in South America. Nine out of 13 South American countries are among the 50 countries with the highest COVID-19 death rates. The gamma severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant that emerged by the end of 2020 in the Brazilian Amazon quickly spread throughout the country causing the harsh COVID-19 second wave. This variant displayed high viral loads, high transmissibility, and increased virulence as compared to previous variants. AimsThe aim of this retrospective study is to revisit and analyse the epidemiology of the COVID-19 second wave in the state of São Paulo, the most populous Brazilian state. In addition to examining the possible factors that led to the emergence and propagation of the gamma variant, measures that could have prevented its spread and that of other highly virulent variants were also investigated. Materials and methodsData from São Paulo's official sources on morbidity, mortality, age distribution, and testing prior to and during the COVID-19 second wave (February -June 2021) and data regarding the distribution of SARS-CoV-2 variants in the country were parsed, analyzed, and compared to the period that anteceded the eruption of the second COVID-19 wave. ResultsIn the state of São Paulo, the toll of the COVID-19 second wave surpassed that of the first 11 months of the pandemic (from March 2020 to January 2021), as 56% of the deaths occurred in the five months of the second wave between February and June 2021. The mean age of COVID-19 victims, which was already below life expectancy in the state dropped even further in the pandemic's second wave, reaching an average of 60 years of age. The years of life lost per death per month doubled and the case-fatality rate (CFR) of young adults (20-39 years old) more than trebled during this period. A number of hypotheses have been raised that might explain the emergence and spread of the gamma variant and the measures that could have been taken to prevent it and minimise its impact on the population. ConclusionsOver 142,000 people died as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 gamma variant sweep in São Paulo in the first semester of 2021. Due to its high viral load, the gamma variant displayed high transmissibility and a high degree of virulence resulting in increased case fatality rates across most age tiers. Notably, this second wave was marked by a very significant increase in deaths among young adults. This increase was at least partially due to a deterioration in general health provoked by non-pharmaceutical interventions. In hindsight, a safer and more effective measure might have been to allow the free spread of the virus among the young and healthy in the first wave, thus conferring immunity against more virulent variants that emerged later on.

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“…SARS-CoV-2 also shares structural and phylogenetic analogy with the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) emerged in 2012. Differently from its predecessors, SARS-CoV-2 has a lower mortality ratio (estimated at around 2-3 %) [6][7][8] and in some cases it develops asymptomatically, especially for its latest B.1.1.519 (omicron) variant. [9][10][11] However, its high contagiousness and the possible development of severe outcomes, especially in elder patients or subjects presenting comorbidities, has caused and still causes an impressive stress on the health systems, only mitigated by the development of novel vaccines also including the messenger RNA (mRNA) strategy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Unraveling the Enzymatic Mechanism of the SARS-CoV-2 RNA-Dependent-RNA-Polymerase. An Unusual Active Site Leading to High Replication Rates

Bignon

Monari

2022

Preprint

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Viral infection relies on the hijacking of cellular machineries to enforce the reproduc- tion of the infecting virus and its subsequent diffusion. In this context the replication of the viral genome is a key step performed by specific enzymes, i.e. polymerases. The replication of SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of the COVID-19 pandemics, is based on the duplication of its RNA genome, an action performed by the viral RNA- dependent-RNA polymerase. In this contribution, for the first time and by using two- dimensional enhanced sampling quantum mechanics/ molecular mechanics, we have determined the chemical mechanisms leading to the inclusion of a nucleotide in the nascent viral RNA strand. We prove the high efficiency of the polymerase, which low- ers the activation free energy to less than 10 kcal/mol. Furthermore, the SARS-CoV-2 polymerase active site is slightly different from those found usually found in other similar enzymes, and particularly it lacks the possibility to enforce a proton shuttle via a nearby histidine. Our simulations show that this absence is partially compensate by lysine, whose proton assist the reaction opening up an alternative, but highly efficient, reactive channel. Our results present the first mechanistic resolution of SARS-CoV-2 genome replication and shed light on unusual enzymatic reactivity paving the way for future rational design of antivirals targeting emerging RNA viruses.

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Infection fatality ratio and case fatality ratio of COVID-19

Cited by 29 publications

References 16 publications

A Prospective Method for Generating COVID-19 Dynamics

A Prospective Method for Generating COVID-19 Dynamics

The Impact of the Highly Virulent SARS-CoV-2 Gamma Variant on Young Adults in the State of São Paulo: Was It Inevitable?

Unraveling the Enzymatic Mechanism of the SARS-CoV-2 RNA-Dependent-RNA-Polymerase. An Unusual Active Site Leading to High Replication Rates

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