Ineffective and Counterproductive? The Impact of Gender Quotas in Open-List Proportional Representation Systems

Abstract

Research on the impact of gender quotas in open-list proportional representation systems has described quotas as ineffective or even paradoxical. While some authors argue that gender quotas without a placement mandate will be essentially ineffective since most women will be nominated to unpromising positions, others suppose that women will be disadvantaged by gender quotas because the increase in the number of female candidates will decrease the average number of preferential votes cast for women. We reexamine the evidence for these claims by analyzing the case of Poland. We demonstrate that the gender quota introduced there in 2011 increased the number of women placed at promising ballot positions and had very little impact on the number of preferential votes cast for women. Additionally, using simulations, we show that the quota had a positive impact on the number of elected women.

Do Parties and Voters Counteract Quota Regulations? The Impact of Legislative Gender Quotas on Ballot Ranking and Preference Voting in Poland

“…For example, Kunovich (2012) considered the top three positions as a simple definition of a prominent ballot placement, relating her approach to the 35% threshold of the candidate gender quota. On the other hand, Górecki and Kukołowicz (2014, 71), followed by Jankowski and Marcinkiewicz (2017), related the definition of a viable position to party magnitude. They defined “viable” or “promising” positions as top- N positions on each list, where for parties winning seats in a given district, N equals twice the party magnitude.…”

“…More precisely, the models controlling for ballot placement do not verify whether voters generally prefer women over men but whether the potential imbalance in their preferences systematically corrects the parties’ bias, already inscribed in the ballot placement pattern. Matland (2005, 105) even argues that “women do better with voters than they do with the party committees putting together party lists, that is, the preferential vote leads to a greater representation of women.” Several analyses demonstrate that there is, on average, no significant gender bias in voters’ choices (Jankowski and Marcinkiewicz 2017; McElroy and Marsh 2010). It is clear, however, that voters’ choices under OLPR most frequently follow the pattern of ballot ranking provided by the parties; voters to a large extent prefer the same candidates as party elites.…”

“…The pooled data from Polish Sejm elections also demonstrate that the visible increase in women's share on the party lists after the introduction of quotas was not evenly distributed among the ballot positions—fewer women were placed in favorable than distant positions (Figure 3). (Fuszara 2013; Jankowski and Marcinkiewicz 2017; Kunovich 2012). More precise analyses (e.g., Gwiazda 2017; Millard 2014) reveal differences between parties in the placement of male and female candidates; the authors attribute these differences mainly to internal regulations.…”

“…The models estimating average individual chances of female candidates being elected or nominated for a viable position allow us to control for personal vote-earning attributes. Yet such an approach poses analytical challenges once applied to study the effects of gender quotas, as candidate chances are heavily dependent on the supply of candidates (Jankowski and Marcinkiewicz 2017). The latter is obviously affected by the quota regulation.…”

“…Apart from adding new empirical evidence to the existing studies of female legislative representation and functioning of quotas in Poland (Flis 2014; Fuszara 2013; Górecki and Kukołowicz 2014; Gwiazda 2015, 2017; Jankowski and Marcinkiewicz 2017; Kunovich 2012; Millard 2014; Siemieńska 2005), we develop in this article a model for studying female representation under OLPR, discussing several methodological issues related to the measurement of quotas’ impact on individual electoral chances and the proportion of females in legislatures.…”