Industry Cycles in the US Softwood Lumber Industry: 1985 through 2010

Mehrotra, Shiv N.; Kant, Shashi; Majumdar, Indrajit

doi:10.13073/fpj-d-13-00090

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…There are some obvious linkages between the timber market and the general economic situation reflected in macroeconomic indicators and business cycles [79,80]. In the years 2000-2005, the beech roundwood market in Europe was unstable, with price increases attributable to roundwood and sawtimber exports to Asia [81].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Dynamics of Beech Roundwood Prices in Selected Central European Markets

Kożuch

Banaś

2020

Forests

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The European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) is the most prevalent deciduous tree species in Central Europe. The implementation of sustainable, close-to-nature silvicultural practices increased the percentage share of beech in forest species composition, raising the economic significance of beech roundwood, especially in terms of revenues from timber sales. The elucidation of roundwood price mechanisms as well as long-term equilibrium relations between international markets may be helpful in calculating the profitability of beech roundwood production. The study material consists of quarterly time series of beech roundwood prices from Austria, Czechia, Germany, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia in the years 2005–2018. The price time series were described with a multiplicative model incorporating seasonal, cyclical, and irregular, as well as long-term trend components. The time series were decomposed using the Census X11 method. Stationarity was tested by means of the augmented Dickey–Fuller test (ADF) and the Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin test (KPSS). Cointegration was assessed using the Johansen and Engle–Granger methods. From 2005–2018, the highest mean beech roundwood prices were found for Austria (77.5 € m−3) and Germany, and the lowest for Poland and Slovakia. Roundwood prices were badly affected by the 2008/2009 financial crisis, which caused an approx. 27% decline. The prices of large-diameter beech logs exhibited seasonal fluctuations, typically reaching a maximum in Q1 and a minimum in Q3. The amplitude of those fluctuations was the highest in Slovenia in 2005 (10.1%), while in Czechia and Germany, seasonal effects increased over the period of study. The lowest seasonality was found in Slovakia and Austria (in the latter country it was not statistically significant). On an annual scale, cyclical changes generally accounted for the largest proportion of price variation, and were particularly pronounced in Poland (78.9%), Slovakia (78.6%), and Austria (69.2%). On the other hand, seasonal effects were predominant in the Slovenian (40.6%), German (34.1%), and Czech (33.3%) markets. In countries with price series of type I(0), simple correlation between stationary beech roundwood prices is positive and the strongest between Czechia–Poland and Czechia–Austria; on the other hand they are the weakest in the German market. In Slovakia and Slovenia with nonstationary price series, both Johansen’s and Engle-Granger’s cointegration tests indicated the absence of a long-term equilibrium between the analyzed beech timber markets. Results revealed integration between the prices of large-diameter beech logs in Czechia, Austria, and Poland. It should be mentioned that in this study, the time series of price used are rather short for long time cointegration analysis, which might prevent the proper detection of cointegration between all analyzed countries.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Dynamics of Beech Roundwood Prices in Selected Central European Markets

Kożuch

Banaś

2020

Forests

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“…The timber industry exhibits cyclical patterns [53] as a result of complex interactions between various market factors, which determine the business situation in the primary timber market (in terms of demand, prices, and timber supply). Petersen and Strongin attributed differences in cyclicality between different industries to product durability, with durable-good industries being three times more cyclical than non-durable-good industries [54].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similarly, the downturn in the American housing market which lasted from Q4 2007 to Q2 2009, negatively influenced the forest products market [57] and in particular led to a decline in the prices of large-diameter timber [58]. In the years 1985-2010 in the American market, four 5-6-year-long cycles were identified in the forest product industry, of which three coincided with larger economic cycles and one resulted from developments in the trade dispute with Canada [53].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Application of Time Series Decomposition for the Identification and Analysis of Fluctuations in Timber Supply and Price: A Case Study from Poland

Banaś

Kożuch

2019

Forests

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The objective of the study was to verify the applicability and usefulness of time series decomposition in analyzing the variability of timber prices and supply in Poland. The employed multiplicative model was the product of four components: cyclical, seasonal, and irregular fluctuations and the long-term trend. The elements of the time series were determined by means of the Census X11 method, while cyclicality was separated from the trend employing the Hodrick–Prescott filter. Data included quarterly information about the supply (volume) and prices (value) of the timber sold by the State Forests in the years 2005–2018. Analyses were performed for tree species with the greatest economic significance, that is, pine, oak, spruce, beech, birch, and alder, and for their most popular assortments: general purpose large-diameter timber (W0) and medium-diameter timber (S2A). Time series decomposition of quarterly timber production volume and prices revealed irregular, seasonal, and cyclic fluctuations. Within an annual time horizon, irregular fluctuations accounted on average for 6.7% and 28% of overall variability in timber prices and supply, respectively; they exhibited low amplitudes (+5%, −25%, respectively). Cyclical fluctuations were primarily found for prices and were characterized by substantial variations in cycle length (2–4 years) and change amplitude (3–27 Euros). Cyclical fluctuations in timber prices and supply were usually negatively correlated with each other: the upper turning points of price cycles fell near the lower turning points of supply cycles (with a shift of 1 to 3 quarters). The seasonality of prices was also inversely correlated with supply: quarters with low supply exhibited higher prices and vice versa. Seasonal fluctuations were more pronounced for timber supply (36%) as compared to timber prices (20.3%). Different seasonality patterns were found for hardwood and softwood. The lowest supply of softwood was found in the first quarter and the highest in the third quarter (spruce) or fourth quarter (pine). The supply of hardwood was the highest in the first quarter and the lowest in the third quarter.

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The European (Green?) Deal: a systematic analysis of environmental sustainability

Hereu‐Morales,

Segarra,

Valderrama

2023

Sustainable Development

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Transitioning towards a sustainable society is at the core of public planning in the EU through the European Green Deal (EGD). However, is the EGD a master plan for actual sustainable development in the EU? This work aims to answer this question through an analysis of the environmental sustainability within the EGD's plans through the method of critical discourse analysis, and discussing the results with previous efforts for sustainable development in the EU and in the UN. The results of the analysis identify fundamental flaws in the environmental sustainability of the EGD, which seems to repeat mistakes of previous efforts for sustainability planning in the EU. This work concludes that economic growth is the predominant focus in public planning and that the EGD needs a review of various environmental aspects to be considered the master plan for a transition towards a sustainable EU.

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Industry Cycles in the US Softwood Lumber Industry: 1985 through 2010

Cited by 5 publications

References 31 publications

The Dynamics of Beech Roundwood Prices in Selected Central European Markets

The Dynamics of Beech Roundwood Prices in Selected Central European Markets

The Application of Time Series Decomposition for the Identification and Analysis of Fluctuations in Timber Supply and Price: A Case Study from Poland

The European (Green?) Deal: a systematic analysis of environmental sustainability

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