India in 2 °C and well below 2 °C worlds: Opportunities and challenges

Abstract

India's contributions to meeting global mean temperature 2 °C and well below 2 °C is set to require transformational changes. A bottom up model analyses reference, intended nationally determined contributions and low-carbon scenarios assuming equal per capita cumulative emissions rights from 2011 through 2050. The cumulative CO 2 budget for India for low-carbon scenarios during this period is estimated to be around 115 Bt-CO 2 , as against 165 Bt-CO 2 for the reference scenario. To achieve such emission reduction, while maintaining high economic growth and meeting sustainable development goals, will require transformations to manifest at sub-national levels through technological transitions and strong social engineering. Our analysis shows that transitions are endemic such as shifting towards cleaner fuels, resource efficient technologies, widespread use of ICTs to balance demand-supply (e.g. smart grids), substituting demand in transport (e.g. work from home), aggressive promotion of renewables, lifestyle changes, and CCS. Modelling decarbonisation to meet the needs of increasing population and urbanization is a challenge due to the myriad and distributed nature of technologies used to provide various services, involving risks and uncertainties. The paper finally outlines specific opportunities and challenges faced to meet the increased mitigation ambition to limit the warming to 2 °C and below.

An Assessment of Near-to-Mid-Term Economic Impacts and Energy Transitions under “2 °C” and “1.5 °C” Scenarios for India

“…The results of scenario assessment show that India's goal of 35% emission intensity reduction between years 2005 to 2030 in NDC would be inferior compared to an optimal response from India in a global 'well-below 2 • C' climate stabilizations regime (see Figure 1). This result is in agreement with various studies [10,11,15] where India's NDC pathway is compared with emission pathways aligned to global 2 • C and 1.5 • C stabilization targets. The Paris Agreement is a dynamic instrument.…”

“…Dhar et al [14] focus on the structural transformation required in the transport sector under "below 2 • C" scenarios. Vishwanathan et al [15] assess the technological transformation required to achieve emission reduction aligned with global stabilization targets using bottom-up technological detailed model. Spencer et al [16] investigate the socio-economic implications of early coal phase-out in coal-dependent countries under the 1.5 • C scenario.…”

Energy system transformation to meet NDC, 2 °C, and well below 2 °C targets for India

“…So, the model estimates sector-wise end use demands and selects the set of power technologies based on economics, technical efficiency, and capacity constraints. The model has been calibrated from 2000 to 2015 and runs in annual time steps until 2050 (Vishwanathan et al 2017).…”

“…The mitigation target for India in terms of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission budget roughly corresponds to around 8% of global carbon budget (with 50% and 66% likelihood) for deep decarbonization futures 5 . This is estimated to range from 40 to 140 6 gigatons CO 2 (Gt-CO 2 ) between 2011 and 2050 based on both global cost-optimization implementation and secondary literature (Kriegler et al forthcoming;Vishwanathan et al 2018a, b;Dhar et al 2017;UNEP 2017;Shukla et al 2015;Tavoni et al 2014;IPCC 2014). The BAU scenario for India is estimated to be in the range of 165-300 Gt-CO 2 (CDLINKS 2017).…”

“…Energy policies since the early 2000s have been trying to enhance energy efficiency and conservation, which will remain the benchmark of energy transitions in India until 2030 (Vishwanathan et al 2017;Garg et al 2017a;INDC 2015;Dubash et al 2015). In the past few years, swift deployment of renewables has occurred due to the revision of India's cumulative renewable targets from 75 GW (Copenhagen Accord) under National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) in 2008 to175 GW (Paris Agreement) under NDC targets in 2015.…”