Incubation period for COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Rai, Balram; Shukla, Anandi; Dwivedi, Laxmi Kant

doi:10.1007/s10389-021-01478-1

Cited by 36 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…On the other hand, it is known that the latent period for COVID-19 is likely to be shorter that the exposed period (see Rai et al (2021) ), which means that infected people could transmit the virus before showing syntoms. Obviously, the SEIR model can be modified in order to take into account this fact (see Brauer and Castillo-Chávez (2012) ).…”

Section: The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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COVID-19 and other viruses: Holding back its spreading by massive testing

Sainz-Pardo

Valero

2021

Expert Systems with Applications

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The experience of Singapore and South Korea makes it clear that under certain circumstances massive testing is an effective way for containing the advance of the COVID-19. In this paper, we propose a modified SEIR model which takes into account tracing and massive testing, proving theoretically that more tracing and testing implies a reduction of the total number of infected people in the long run. We apply this model to the spreading of the first wave of the disease in Spain, obtaining numerical results. After that, we introduce a heuristic approach in order to minimize the COVID-19 spreading by planning effective test distributions among the populations of a region over a period of time. As an application, the impact of distributing tests among the counties of New York according to this method is computed in terms of the number of saved infected individuals.

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Section: The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It has been estimated (see Lauer et al (2019) and Rai et al (2021) ) that the mean value of the incubation period of the virus is about five days, so we take

. There are other studies which give a larger period of incubation.…”

Section: Validation Of the Model By Applying It To The Covid-19 Spreading In Spainmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 and other viruses: Holding back its spreading by massive testing

Sainz-Pardo

Valero

2021

Expert Systems with Applications

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“…A meta-analysis in [9] showed that the mean incubation period of COVID-19 was 6.0 days globally from December 2019 to May 2021. Another pooled estimate of the COVID-19 incubation period yielded 5.74 days [25].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How does the latency period impact the modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics?

Patterson¹,

Wang

2022

Math Appl Sci Eng

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We introduce two mathematical models based on systems of differential equations to investigate the relationship between the latency period and the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. We analyze the equilibrium and stability properties of these models, and perform an asymptotic study in terms of small and large latency periods. We fit the models to the COVID-19 data in the U.S. state of Tennessee. Our numerical results demonstrate the impact of the latency period on the dynamical behaviors of the solutions, on the value of the basic reproduction numbers, and on the accuracy of the model predictions.

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“…Estimation of virus incubation period is of great significance for the epidemiological investigation and the development of epidemic prevention and controlling measures [ 17 ]. The incubation period is an aid for defining the time period for which contact tracing is to be done [ 18 ]. It helps in active monitoring of people having higher exposure and also in determining the length of active monitoring so as to save resources [ 19 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Parameter estimation of the incubation period of COVID-19 based on the doubly interval-censored data model

2021

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With the spread of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) around the world, the estimation of the incubation period of COVID-19 has become a hot issue. Based on the doubly interval-censored data model, we assume that the incubation period follows lognormal and Gamma distribution, and estimate the parameters of the incubation period of COVID-19 by adopting the maximum likelihood estimation, expectation maximization algorithm and a newly proposed algorithm (expectation mostly conditional maximization algorithm, referred as ECIMM). The main innovation of this paper lies in two aspects: Firstly, we regard the sample data of the incubation period as the doubly interval-censored data without unnecessary data simplification to improve the accuracy and credibility of the results; secondly, our new ECIMM algorithm enjoys better convergence and universality compared with others. With the framework of this paper, we conclude that 14-day quarantine period can largely interrupt the transmission of COVID-19, however, people who need specially monitoring should be isolated for about 20 days for the sake of safety. The results provide some suggestions for the prevention and control of COVID-19. The newly proposed ECIMM algorithm can also be used to deal with the doubly interval-censored data model appearing in various fields.

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Incubation period for COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Cited by 36 publications

References 33 publications

COVID-19 and other viruses: Holding back its spreading by massive testing

COVID-19 and other viruses: Holding back its spreading by massive testing

How does the latency period impact the modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics?

Parameter estimation of the incubation period of COVID-19 based on the doubly interval-censored data model

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