Increasing Winter Precipitation over Arid Central Asia under Global Warming

Song, Shikai; Bai, Jie

doi:10.3390/atmos7100139

Cited by 40 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 34 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In Central Asia, the annual precipitation has generally increased during the past 80 years, especially in winter (Chen et al, 2011). There was a significant increasing trend in precipitation in the southeast of Central Asia during 1960-2013 (Song and Bai, 2016).…”

Section: Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change, water resources and sustainable development in the arid and semi-arid lands of Central Asia in the past 30 years

et al. 2018

J. Arid Land

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The countries of Central Asia are collectively known as the five ''-stans'': Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. In recent times, the Central Asian region has been affected by the shrinkage of the Aral Sea, widespread desertification, soil salinization, biodiversity loss, frequent sand storms, and many other ecological disasters. This paper is a review article based upon the collection, identification and collation of previous studies of environmental changes and regional developments in Central Asia in the past 30 years. Most recent studies have reached a consensus that the temperature rise in Central Asia is occurring faster than the global average. This warming trend will not only result in a higher evaporation in the basin oases, but also to a significant retreat of glaciers in the mountainous areas. Water is the key to sustainable development in the arid and semi-arid regions in Central Asia. The uneven distribution, over consumption, and pollution of water resources in Central Asia have caused severe water supply problems, which have been affecting regional harmony and development for the past 30 years. The widespread and significant land use changes in the 1990s could be used to improve our understanding of natural variability and human interaction in the region. There has been a positive trend of trans-border cooperation among the Central Asian countries in recent years. International attention has grown and research projects have been initiated to provide water and ecosystem protection in Central Asia. However, the agreements that have been reached might not be able to deliver practical action in time to prevent severe ecological disasters. Water management should be based on hydrographic borders and ministries should be able to make timely decisions without political intervention. Fully integrated management of water resources, land use and industrial development is essential in Central Asia. The ecological crisis should provide sufficient motivation to reach a consensus on unified water management throughout the region.

show abstract

Section: Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change, water resources and sustainable development in the arid and semi-arid lands of Central Asia in the past 30 years

et al. 2018

J. Arid Land

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…As an evaluation of respective products is necessary to assess their performance and related uncertainties, numerous studies exist that compare gridded precipitation values with gauge measurements of meteorological stations 3–14 . Although results vary, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) full data product frequently outperforms other spatial rainfall estimates 6,8,9,15–19 . Therefore, GPCC or similar gauge-based raster datasets are frequently applied in many scientific disciplines.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation needs and temporal performance differences of gridded precipitation products in peripheral mountain regions

Zandler

Haag

Samimi

2019

Sci Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Gridded datasets are of paramount importance to globally derive precipitation quantities for a multitude of scientific and practical applications. However, as most studies do not consider the impacts of temporal and spatial variations of included measurements in the utilized datasets, we conducted a quantitative assessment of the ability of several state of the art gridded precipitation products (CRU, GPCC Full Data Product, GPCC Monitoring Product, ERA-interim, ERA5, MERRA-2, MERRA-2 bias corrected, PERSIANN-CDR) to reproduce monthly precipitation values at climate stations in the Pamir mountains during two 15 year periods (1980–1994, 1998–2012) that are characterized by considerable differences in incorporated observation data. Results regarding the GPCC products illustrated a substantial and significant performance decrease with up to four times higher errors during periods with low observation inputs (1998–2012 with 2 stations on average per 124,000 km2) compared to periods with high quantities of regionally incorporated station data (1980–1994 with 14 stations on average per 124,000 km2). If independent stations were considered, the coefficient of efficiency indicated that only three of the gridded datasets (MERRA–2 bias corrected, GPCC, GPCC MP) performed better than the long term station mean for characterizing surface precipitation. Error patterns and magnitudes show that in complex terrain, evaluation of temporal and spatial variations of included observations is a prerequisite for using gridded precipitation products for scientific applications and to avoid overly optimistic performance assessments.

show abstract

“…Precipitation changes have been observed in many regions in recent decades with global warming (Dore, ; Guilbert et al, ; Li et al, ; Song and Bai, ; Guan et al, ; Yang et al, ; Zhang et al, ). In arid northwest China, significant changes in precipitation have also been documented in recent decades (Shi et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decadal changes in summer precipitation over arid northwest China and associated atmospheric circulations

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The precipitation over arid regions may be low, but its environmental impacts can be very dramatic. The decadal variability in precipitation can also effectively disturb climatic environmental regimes. To advance the understanding of precipitation variability over arid regions, this paper focuses on decadal variability in summer precipitation over arid northwest China and its associated atmospheric circulations, using observation-based data and atmospheric reanalysis during the period 1961-2016. The results show that climatologically, precipitation over this region has a strong seasonality and that 60.2% falls in summer. The summer precipitation increased 15.5 mm, accounting for 52.4% of the total annual increase in this part of China from 1961 to 2016. Decadal changes in summer precipitation occurred in approximately 1991 with a north-south difference structure modulated by largescale circulation anomalies over the Indian Ocean and central Asia as well as a shift in water vapour transport. In a positive phase, anticyclonic circulation anomalies occupy the Indian Ocean with cyclonic anomalies over central Asia, favouring stronger northwards moisture transport towards northwest China, and vice versa. Moreover, the significantly enhanced northwards water vapour transport from lowlatitude seas is also critical to the decadal changes approximately in 1991 summer precipitation in arid northwest China. These findings contribute to the understanding of decadal precipitation variability over arid regions, especially the increasing influence of low-latitude circulations and moisture transport processes.

show abstract

Increasing Winter Precipitation over Arid Central Asia under Global Warming

Cited by 40 publications

References 34 publications

Climate change, water resources and sustainable development in the arid and semi-arid lands of Central Asia in the past 30 years

Climate change, water resources and sustainable development in the arid and semi-arid lands of Central Asia in the past 30 years

Evaluation needs and temporal performance differences of gridded precipitation products in peripheral mountain regions

Decadal changes in summer precipitation over arid northwest China and associated atmospheric circulations

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About