Increasing Winter Baseflow in Response to Permafrost Thaw and Precipitation Regime Shifts in Northeastern China

Duan, Liangliang; Man, Xiuling; Kurylyk, Barret L.; Cai, Tijiu

doi:10.3390/w9010025

Cited by 50 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 66 publications

(85 reference statements)

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“…Increase in winter baseflows in the Tahe River and Duobukuer River watersheds of north-eastern China may be due to enhanced groundwater storage and winter groundwater discharge caused by permafrost thaw. It could also be due to an increase in the wet season rainfall [34].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantity and Trends in Streamflows of the Malewa River Basin, Kenya

Cheruiyot¹,

Gathuru²,

Koske³

2018

JESE-B

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Freshwater availability in sufficient quantity and quality is necessary for both people and nature. Environmental flow data is useful in the management and allocation of water resources. This study aimed at quantifying stream flows and their trends in the Malewa Basin rivers in central rift valley, Kenya. Daily stream flow data in four gauges (2GB01, 2GB05, 2GB0708 and 2GC04) were subjected to exploratory data analysis, fixed interval method of baseflow separation and Mann Kendall trend test. The results shows that on average, the Malewa river at Gauge 2GB01 discharge (excluding abstractions) about 191.2 million cubic metres of water annually, equivalent to a discharge of 6.06 m 3 /s. While discharges had not experienced a step change, huge annual fluctuations were noted suggesting periodicity with changes in climatic conditions. No trend was noted in annual stream data for the four gauges assessed. However, extreme low and high flows, median flows and baseflows for daily data showed either positive or negative trends. The baseflow index for daily flows showed trends: 2GB01 (Z = 4.519), 2GB05 (Z = -6.861), 2GB0708 (Z = -16.326) and 2GC04 (Z = 5.593). The findings suggest that Malewa rivers are likely experiencing effects of extreme climatic conditions and land cover changes. Land cover degradation seems to create conditions of increased flow, although the intensity varies from sub-catchment to another. The data also seems to suggest that stream discharge is much dependent on baseflows. There is need to regulate water use, improve soil cover and manage or adapt to the adverse effects of climate change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantity and Trends in Streamflows of the Malewa River Basin, Kenya

Cheruiyot¹,

Gathuru²,

Koske³

2018

JESE-B

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“…So, winter baseflow at two watersheds in permafrost area of northeast China had a distinct annual increasing trend, 1–2%, and lagged MAT increase by only two years (Duan et al. ). However, the area where these processes are happening is relatively small and does not change our “present‐day” results significantly.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Present‐day and future contribution of climate and fires to vegetation composition in the boreal forest of China

Venevsky

Sitch

et al. 2017

Ecosphere

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. 2017. Present-day and future contribution of climate and fires to vegetation composition in the boreal forest of China. Ecosphere 8(8):e01917. 10. 1002/ecs2.1917 Abstract. Climate is well known as an important determinant of biogeography. Although climate is directly important for vegetation composition in the boreal forests, these ecosystems are strongly sensitive to an indirect effect of climate via fire disturbance. However, the driving balance of fire disturbance and climate on composition is poorly understood. In this study, we quantitatively analyzed their individual contributions for the boreal forests of the Heilongjiang Province, China, and their response to climate change using four warming scenarios (+1.5°, 2°, 3°, and 4°C). This study employs the statistical methods of Redundancy Analysis (RDA) and variation partitioning combined with simulation results from a SErgey VERsion Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SEVER-DGVM), and remote sensing datasets of global land cover (GLC2000) and the third version of Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3). Results show that the vegetation distribution for the present day is mainly determined directly by climate (35%) rather than fire (1-10.9%). However, with a future global warming of 1.5°C, local vegetation composition will be determined by fires rather than climate (36.3% > 29.3%). Above 1.5°C warming, temperature will be more important than fires in regulating vegetation distribution although other factors such as precipitation can also contribute. The spatial pattern in vegetation composition over the region, as evaluated by Moran's Eigenvector Map (MEM), has a significant impact on local vegetation coverage; for example, composition at any individual location is highly related to that in its neighborhood. It represents the largest contribution to vegetation distribution in all scenarios, but will not change the driving balance between climate and fires. Our results are highly relevant for forest and wildfires' management.

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“…Walvoord and Striegl 2007, Déry et al 2009, St Jacques and Sauchyn 2009, Sjöberg et al 2013, Connon et al 2014. Although various explanations for these trends have been proposed, several studies have shown that increases mainly occur when stream discharge is primarily groundwater-derived, suggesting that the changes are related to permafrost thaw (Walvoord and Striegl 2007, St Jacques and Sauchyn 2009, Duan et al 2017. Increased baseflow due to groundwater discharge may be caused by (1) increased hydrogeologic connectivity due to new groundwater pathways formed by permafrost thaw (Walvoord and Striegl 2007, St Jacques and Sauchyn 2009), (2) a local increase of precipitation and atmospheric moisture that enhances groundwater recharge (Connon et al 2014, Duan et al 2017, and/or (3) a temporary decrease in water storage capacity due to changes in land-surface cover (Connon et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing groundwater discharge dynamics in permafrost regions

Lamontagne‐Hallé

McKenzie

Kurylyk

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

127

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Permafrost thaw due to climate warming modifies hydrological processes by increasing hydrological connectivity between aquifers and surface water bodies and increasing groundwater storage. While previous studies have documented arctic river baseflow increases and changing wetland and lake distributions, the hydrogeological processes leading to these changes remain poorly understood. This study uses a coupled heat and groundwater flow numerical model with dynamic freezing and thawing processes and an improved set of boundary conditions to simulate the impacts of climate warming on permafrost distribution and groundwater discharge to surface water bodies. We show a spatial shift in groundwater discharge from upslope to downslope and a temporal shift with increasing groundwater discharge during the winter season due to the formation of a lateral supra-permafrost talik underlying the active layer. These insights into changing patterns of groundwater discharge help explain observed changes in arctic baseflow and wetland patterns and are important for northern water resources and ecosystem management.

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Increasing Winter Baseflow in Response to Permafrost Thaw and Precipitation Regime Shifts in Northeastern China

Cited by 50 publications

References 66 publications

Quantity and Trends in Streamflows of the Malewa River Basin, Kenya

Quantity and Trends in Streamflows of the Malewa River Basin, Kenya

Present‐day and future contribution of climate and fires to vegetation composition in the boreal forest of China

Changing groundwater discharge dynamics in permafrost regions

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