Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution

Cox, Peter M.; Harris, Phil; Huntingford, Chris; Betts, Richard; Collins, Matthew; Jones, Chris D.; Jupp, Tim E.; Marengo, José A.; Nobre, Carlos A.

doi:10.1038/nature06960

Cited by 358 publications

(317 citation statements)

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“…However, the 2005 drought did not result from El Niño, reinforcing the hypothesis that extreme weather events are likely to occur with more frequency and intensity in the region and can be influenced by climate change related to the greenhouse effect (Cox et al, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 75%

Possible impacts of climate change on wetlands and its biota in the Brazilian Amazon

Barros

Albernaz

2014

Braz. J. Biol.

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Wetlands cover approximately 6% of the Earth´s surface. They are frequently found at the interface between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and are strongly dependent on the water cycle. For this reason, wetlands are extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Mangroves and floodplain ecosystems are some of the most important environments for the Amazonian population, as a source of proteins and income, and are thus the types of wetlands chosen for this review. Some of the main consequences that can be predicted from climate change for wetlands are modifications in hydrological regimes, which can cause intense droughts or inundations. A possible reduction in rainfall can cause a decrease of the areas of mangroves and floodplains, with a consequent decline in their species numbers. Conversely, an increase in rainfall would probably cause the substitution of plant species, which would not be able to survive under new conditions for a long period. An elevation in water temperature on the floodplains would cause an increase in frequency and duration of hypoxic or anoxic episodes, which might further lead to a reduction in growth rates or the reproductive success of many species. In mangroves, an increase in water temperature would influence the sea level, causing losses of these environments through coastal erosion processes. Therefore, climate change will likely cause the loss of, or reduction in, Amazonian wetlands and will challenge the adaptability of species, composition and distribution, which will probably have consequences for the human population that depend on them.Keywords: global warming, wetlands, mangrove, floodplains, Amazonia. Possíveis impactos das mudanças climáticas em áreas úmidase sua biota na Amazônia brasileira ResumoAs áreas úmidas cobrem aproximadamente 6% da superfície da terra e são frequentemente encontradas na interface entre ecossistemas terrestres e aquáticos e fortemente dependentes do ciclo da água. Por esta razão são extremamente vulneráveis aos efeitos das alterações do clima. Os ecossistemas de manguezais e várzeas são muito importantes para os seres humanos da Amazônia, porque são de onde eles extraem algumas das principais fontes de proteínas e renda, e, por isso, foram os dois tipos de áreas úmidas escolhidos para esse estudo. Entre as principais consequências das mudanças climáticas previstas para esses ambientes estão as alterações nos regimes hidrológicos, que podem causar grandes secas ou inundações. A possível redução das chuvas pode causar a diminuição das áreas de mangue e várzea, provocando um rápido declínio de suas espécies. Por outro lado, o aumento das chuvas teria como provável consequência a substituição de espécies de plantas, que não seriam capazes de sobreviver sob as novas condições por um longo período de tempo. As principais consequências do aumento da temperatura da água entre as áreas úmidas seria que nas várzeas este parâmetro aumentaria a frequência ou duração dos episódios hipóxicos e/ou anóxicos, podendo causar a redução da taxa de...

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 75%

Possible impacts of climate change on wetlands and its biota in the Brazilian Amazon

Barros

Albernaz

2014

Braz. J. Biol.

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“…However, high Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SST, which are associated with an anomalous northward position of ITCZ, cause dry conditions in the southern and western Amazon [Marengo, 1992;Uvo et al, 2000], which are particularly severe during austral winter and spring [Ronchail et al, 2002;Espinoza et al, 2009b;Yoon and Zeng, 2010]. For instance, the dramatic 2005 drought, which was particularly intense in the southwestern Amazon, has been attributed to warm SST over TNA [Zeng et al, 2008;Marengo et al, 2008;Cox et al, 2008].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate variability and extreme drought in the upper Solimões River (western Amazon Basin): Understanding the exceptional 2010 drought

Espinoza

Ronchail

Guyot

et al. 2011

Geophys. Res. Lett.

170

205

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International audienceThis work provides an initial overview of climate features and their related hydrological impacts during the recent extreme droughts (1995, 1998, 2005 and 2010) in the upper Solimões River (western Amazon), using comprehensive in situ discharge and rainfall datasets. The droughts are generally associated with positive SST anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic and weak trade winds and water vapor transport toward the upper Solimões, which, in association with increased subsidence over central and southern Amazon, explain the lack of rainfall and very low discharge values. But in 1998, toward the end of the 1997-98 El Niño event, the drought is more likely related to an anomalous divergence of water vapor in the western Amazon that is characteristic of a warm event in the Pacific. During the austral spring and winter of 2010, the most severe drought since the seventies has been registered in the upper Solimões. Its intensity and its length, when compared to the 2005 drought, can be explained by the addition of an El Niño in austral summer and a very warm episode in the Atlantic in boreal spring and summer. As in 2005, the lack of water in 2010 was more important in the southern tropical tributaries of the upper Solimões than in the northern ones

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“…Results from the Hadley Centre model indicate a tremendous increase in the magnitude of the Atlantic temperature gradient and associated Amazon droughts if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current path (Cox et al, 2008). The simulation results indicate that the probability of a drought as severe as that of 2005 was 5% (1 year in 20) in 2005, but this would rise to 50% (1 year in 2) by 2025 and 90% (9 years in 10) by 2060.…”

Section: ) Atlantic Oscillationmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…There was also a 22% indirect contribution from global warming from the remains of an El Niño period in the preceding years. In addition, the reduction of industrial air pollution in Europe and North America resulted in less shielding of this area of ocean by aerosols (Cox et al, 2008).…”

Section: ) Atlantic Oscillationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The north-south temperature gradient in the Atlantic is significantly correlated with rainfall in the southwestern portion of Amazonia, and in 2005 both the Atlantic gradient and drought in southwestern Amazonia were at extreme levels (Cox et al, 2008). Results from the Hadley Centre model indicate a tremendous increase in the magnitude of the Atlantic temperature gradient and associated Amazon droughts if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current path (Cox et al, 2008).…”

Section: ) Atlantic Oscillationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global warming in Amazonia: impacts and Mitigation

Fearnside

2009

Acta Amaz.

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Global warming has potentially catastrophic impacts in Amazonia, while at the same time maintenance of the Amazon forest offers one of the most valuable and cost-effective options for mitigating climate change. We know that the El Niño phenomenon, caused by temperature oscillations of surface water in the Pacific, has serious impacts in Amazonia, causing droughts and forest fires (as in 1997-1998). Temperature oscillations in the Atlantic also provoke severe droughts (as in 2005). We also know that Amazonian trees die both from fires and from water stress under hot, dry conditions. In addition, water recycled through the forest provides rainfall that maintains climatic conditions appropriate for tropical forest, especially in the dry season. What we need to know quickly, through intensified research, includes progress in representing El Niño and the Atlantic oscillations in climatic models, representation of biotic feedbacks in models used for decision-making about global warming, and narrowing the range of estimating climate sensitivity to reduce uncertainty about the probability of very severe impacts. Items that need to be negotiated include the definition of "dangerous" climate change, with the corresponding maximum levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation of global warming must include maintaining the Amazon forest, which has benefits for combating global warming from two separate roles: cutting the flow the emissions of carbon each year from the rapid pace of deforestation, and avoiding emission of the stock of carbon in the remaining forest that can be released by various ways, including climate change itself. Barriers to rewarding forest maintenance include the need for financial rewards for both of these roles. Other needs are for continued reduction of uncertainty regarding emissions and deforestation processes, as well as agreement on the basis of carbon accounting. As one of the countries most subject to impacts of climate change, Brazil must assume the leadership in fighting global warming.KEYWORDS: Carbon, Climate change, Deforestation, Environmental services, Global warming, Greenhouse effect Aquecimento Global na Amazônia: Impactos e Mitigação RESUMO O aquecimento global tem impactos potencialmente catastróficos na Amazônia, e, ao mesmo tempo, a manutenção da floresta amazônica oferece uma das opções mais valiosas e baratas para mitigar as mudanças climáticas. Nós sabemos que o fenômeno de El Niño, causado por uma oscilação da temperatura da superfície da água no Pacífico, tem impactos sérios na Amazônia, causando secas e incêndios florestais, como aconteceram em 1997-1998. Oscilações de temperatura no Atlântico também provocam secas severas, como em 2005. Nós também sabemos que árvores amazônicas morrem, tanto do fogo como do estresse hídrico sob condições quentes e secas. Além disso, a água reciclada pela floresta fornece chuva que mantém as condições climáticas apropriadas para floresta tropical, especialmente durante a estação seca. O que nós precisamos saber com urgên...

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Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution

Cited by 358 publications

References 28 publications

Possible impacts of climate change on wetlands and its biota in the Brazilian Amazon

Possible impacts of climate change on wetlands and its biota in the Brazilian Amazon

Climate variability and extreme drought in the upper Solimões River (western Amazon Basin): Understanding the exceptional 2010 drought

Global warming in Amazonia: impacts and Mitigation

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