Climate variability and extreme drought in the upper Solimões River (western Amazon Basin): Understanding the exceptional 2010 drought

Espinoza, Jhan Carlo; Ronchail, Josyane; Guyot, Jean‐Loup; Junquas, Clémentine; Vauchel, Philippe; Lavado, Waldo; Drapeau, Guillaume; Pombosa, Rodrigo

doi:10.1029/2011gl047862

Cited by 170 publications

(253 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…2), in which in 2010 large negative anomalies occurred for the northwestern basin. This is consistent with river discharge records 17 . Lesser negative anomalies in the northeastern basin were caused by early-year negative precipitation anomalies and the central-eastern and southern parts of the Amazon basin ('the arc of deforestation') had anomalies caused by low precipitation during the third quarter of the year.…”

Section: 11supporting

confidence: 80%

Drought sensitivity of Amazonian carbon balance revealed by atmospheric measurements

Gatti

Gloor

Miller

et al. 2014

Nature

450

459

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Section: 11supporting

confidence: 80%

Drought sensitivity of Amazonian carbon balance revealed by atmospheric measurements

Gatti

Gloor

Miller

et al. 2014

Nature

450

459

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…This is opposite to the westerly pattern and divergence over the western Amazon sometimes observed after El Niño has peaked, which leads to drought in the region, although the warming of the northern tropical Atlantic plays a more dominant role in this case (Espinoza et al, 2011;Marengo and Espinoza, 2016). A northerly transport anomaly prevails east of the Andes into SESA, associated with the enhancement of the SALLJ (Silva et al, 2009) …”

Section: Rainfall Anomalies Associated With the Equatorial Pacific Ssmentioning

confidence: 77%

“…We should note that the Atlantic SST variability also plays a key role in modulating the South American climate such as over the Amazon region on several timescales (Espinoza et al, 2011;Marengo and Espinoza, 2016;Jiménez-Muñoz et al, 2016). For example, Marengo and Espinoza (2016) pointed out that drought or floods in the Amazon region tend to be explained as a result of the combined effect of the anomalous circulation associated with changes in SST of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of different ENSO flavors and tropical Pacific convection variability (ITCZ, SPCZ) on austral summer rainfall in South America, with a focus on Peru

Sulca

Takahashi

Espinoza

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

132

128

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El Niño in the eastern and central Pacific has different impacts on the rainfall of South America, and the atmospheric pathways through the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) are poorly understood. To address this, we performed linear regression analysis of E (eastern Pacific) and C (central Pacific) indices of sea surface temperature (SST), as well as precipitation indices for the SPCZ and ITCZ, with gridded precipitation and reanalysis data sets during the austral summer (December-February) for the 1980-2016 period. Positive C induces dry anomalies along the tropical Andes and northern South America (NSA), while wet anomalies prevail over southeastern South America (SESA). Moreover, it produces wet conditions in the northwestern Peruvian Amazon. In contrast, positive E enhances wet conditions along the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru associated with the southward displacement of the eastern Pacific ITCZ and induces dry conditions in Altiplano, Amazon basin, and northeastern Brazil (NEB). Both El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices are associated with weakened upper-level easterly flow over Peru, but it is more restricted to the central and southern Peruvian Andes with positive E. Both SPCZ indices, the zonal position of the SPCZ and its latitudinal displacement, suppress rainfall along western Peruvian Andes when are positive, but the latter also inhibits rainfall over the Bolivian Altiplano. They are also linked to upper-level westerly wind anomalies overall of Peru, but these anomalies do not extend as far south in the first. The southward displacement of the eastern Pacific ITCZ also induces wet anomalies in SESA while dry anomalies prevail over NEB, the western Amazon basin, and Bolivia. Oppositely, the southward displacement of the central Pacific ITCZ induces dry anomalies in NEB and along the northern coast of Peru; while wet anomalies occur mainly in eastern Brazil, Paraguay, and Bolivia through an enhancement of the low level jet.

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“…Recent extreme hydrological events have occurred in the past years in the Amazon River basin, such as the 2009 flood (Chen et al, 2010) and the 1996 (Tomasella et al, 2010), 2005 Zeng et al, 2008;Chen et al, 2009) and 2010 (Espinoza et al, 2011;Marengo et al, 2011) droughts. These extreme events caused several impacts on local population, since most settlements lie along the Amazon and its main tributaries where susceptibility to floods is large.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the sources of hydrological prediction uncertainty in the Amazon

Paiva

Collischonn

Bonnet

et al. 2012

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Recent extreme events in the Amazon River basin and the vulnerability of local population motivate the development of hydrological forecast systems using process based models for this region. In this direction, the knowledge of the source of errors in hydrological forecast systems may guide the choice on improving model structure, model forcings or developing data assimilation systems for estimation of initial model states. We evaluate the relative importance of hydrologic initial conditions and model meteorological forcings errors (precipitation) as sources of stream flow forecast uncertainty in the Amazon River basin. We used a hindcast approach that compares Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and a reverse Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (reverse-ESP). Simulations were performed using the physically-based and distributed hydrological model MGB-IPH, comprising surface energy and water balance, soil water, river and floodplain hydrodynamics processes. The model was forced using TRMM 3B42 precipitation estimates. Results show that uncertainty on initial conditions plays an important role for discharge predictability, even for large lead times (∼ 1 to 3 months) on main Amazonian Rivers. Initial conditions of surface waters state variables are the major source of hydrological forecast uncertainty, mainly in rivers with low slope and large floodplains. Initial conditions of groundwater state variables are important, mostly during low flow period and in the southeast part of the Amazon where lithology and the strong rainfall seasonality with a marked dry season may be the explaining factors. Analyses indicate that hydrological forecasts based on a hydrological model forced with historical meteorological data and optimal initial conditions may be feasible. Also, development of data assimilation methods is encouraged for this region.

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Climate variability and extreme drought in the upper Solimões River (western Amazon Basin): Understanding the exceptional 2010 drought

Cited by 170 publications

References 23 publications

Drought sensitivity of Amazonian carbon balance revealed by atmospheric measurements

Drought sensitivity of Amazonian carbon balance revealed by atmospheric measurements

Impacts of different ENSO flavors and tropical Pacific convection variability (ITCZ, SPCZ) on austral summer rainfall in South America, with a focus on Peru

On the sources of hydrological prediction uncertainty in the Amazon

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